FL-Sen, Mason-Dixon: Scott in the lead

[Brittain33]

If a voter voted for Rubio in 2016, why would that voter not tend to be a Scott voter. 

You can’t apply a presidential electorate to a midterm election. Millions of Floridians who voted for Rubio or Murphy won’t bother to vote this year because there’s no President on the ballot. My favorite illustration of how this works is that Scott Brown won no more votes in 2010 winning a senate race than McCain won while losing Massachusetts in a landslide in 2008.

But beside that, there are other reasons. Plenty of people voted for Rubio to be a check on an expected President Clinton. Plenty of others voted for Rubio because they felt the Republican Party was best aligned with the interests of the Cuban American community. In 2018, Trump has given both groups of voters to reconsider their past choices.

[Brittain33]

I have said it be before and will say it again, if a voter voted for Rubio in 2016 there his a strong possibility and inclination that you will vote for Scott.

I will say again, midterm turnout is always lower than Presidential year turnout and hundreds of thousands of people who voted for Rubio will stay home because Trump or Hillary isn’t on the ballot. It’s simply innumerate to assume the same number of people will turn out for a midterm as a general.

[Brittain33]

Likely R tbh.  Scott is beloved.

I was surprised the first time I visited a friend's home in Florida and saw the portrait of Scott on the wall, but you get accustomed to it.