FL-Sen, Mason-Dixon: Scott in the lead

[Zaybay]

The last poll these guys did was of Southern Hispanic Floridians, and got Scott+3, so I am not really inclined to put much stock in a B- Pollster.

[Zaybay]

14 weeks to the Election. And btw I'm not buying all the Media Crap about the National Environment at this Point. We know how that turned out in 2016. Democrats in Florida have to first show that they can win Races in Florida in a MidTerm. They haven't done that at all.

Race is a TOSS UP but I wouldn't entirely be shocked if Scott pulls this out. Time to sent different people to Washington.

You say as Democrats have been over preforming in the entirety of 2017 and 2018, including in races in FL, where they have won 2 seats from Rs, and have defended vulnerable ones by increasingly larger margins.

I think that the reason Scott is ahead is the money discrepancy. Even though Nelson has dough, hes not using it, where as Scott is practically burning it. If Scott is only leading by 2-3 in a rather poor pollster that has favored him the entire election, then I think this is tilt-D.

[Zaybay]

14 weeks to the Election. And btw I'm not buying all the Media Crap about the National Environment at this Point. We know how that turned out in 2016. Democrats in Florida have to first show that they can win Races in Florida in a MidTerm. They haven't done that at all.

Race is a TOSS UP but I wouldn't entirely be shocked if Scott pulls this out. Time to sent different people to Washington.

You say as Democrats have been over preforming in the entirety of 2017 and 2018, including in races in FL, where they have won 2 seats from Rs, and have defended vulnerable ones by increasingly larger margins.

I think that the reason Scott is ahead is the money discrepancy. Even though Nelson has dough, hes not using it, where as Scott is practically burning it. If Scott is only leading by 2-3 in a rather poor pollster that has favored him the entire election, then I think this is tilt-D.

You are hilarious. Who cares about State Legislature Races? Not me. A General MidTerm Election Vote is vastly different than winning some Special Elections. Democrats still haven't proved that they have fixed their MidTerm Turnout Problem they had in 2010 and 2014. The RNC has catched the Democrats in 2014 & 2016 with their GOTV Operations and they may yet save a lot of vulnerable Republicans in Congressional, Senate and Governor Races around the Country incl. Florida because of that.

The Dems haven't fixed their midterm turnout problem, the young and ethnic minorities who protested Trumps victory, are the ones whom are economically depressed, unemployed or underemployed

TBH, I think the Main Reason why Democrats are doing reasonable well right now is because the Republican Base is half asleep. That explains Democrats being only down 4 in SD-GOV or 2 ahead in GA-GOV. The Question then becomes: How can Republicans & Trump energize their Base. One way to do it is indeed doing a Govt. Shutdown over the Border Wall.

Once the Republican Base gets energized & excited these big Battleground Governor, Senate Races as well as the Congressional Ballot Test will start even out somewhat and then Nelson could be in big trouble in this Race here.

Im very sorry to break it to you, but in most studies and surveys, the Republicans are as enegized as they were in 2016, 2014, and 2010. The key difference is that the Democrats are now more energized, and thats a problem when they have a larger base.

The Indie vote, that Rs have won in midterms and presidential elections, has also swung D, and is what is allowing Democrats to win in odd areas by large margins. A shutdown/borderwall conflict may energize more Rs, but it will also push off more Is and energize more Ds. The best strategy for Rs, as Mitch pointed out, is to do nothing, let the anger subside and let the Ds become less motivated. Of course, that didnt work out.

[Zaybay]

Can anyone tell me the nature of Nelson’s campaign.  Is he being very energectic with several events everyday.  Or is campaigning like an old man with one or two events and then rest.

I would say a bit more of the first than the second, but it is a combo of both. To be honest, the Nelson campaign has not been asleep, or forgetting about its voters. Most of that comes from a Politico article that caused Atlas to go insane. The next day, Nelson released an ad in Spanish, and Atlas was silent of that fact.

Also, I dont see whats wrong with reminding voters who you are. Nelson is a rather....forgettable senator. In a growing state, whats wrong with reminding the electorate that you are an astronaut? Bredesen is still introducing to voters, as is Heitkamp. Were only starting the mid campaign phase, so attack ads are not really necessary.

Is Nelson lackluster? Yes. Is he giving up the seat and campaigning in the 90s? No.