2020 census: with and without undocumented immigrants

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I decided to calculate the congressional apportionment based on 2020 population estimates, both with and without undocumented immigrants:

With undocumented immigrants:
Alabama -1
Arizona +1
California 0
Colorado +1
Florida +1
Illinois -1
Michigan -1
Minnesota -1
Montana 0
New York -1
North Carolina +1
Oregon +1
Pennsylvania -1
Rhode Island -1
Texas +3
West Virginia -1

Solid Red States (AL, TX, WV): +1
Swing States (CO, FL, MI, NC, PA, AZ): +2
Lean Blue States (MN): -1
Solid Blue States (IL, NY, OR, RI): -2

Obama 2012 states: -3
Clinton 2016 states: -2
Freiwal: -4

Without undocumented immigrants:
Alabama 0 (+1)
Arizona 0 (-1)
California -1 (-1)
Colorado +1
Florida +1
Illinois -1
Michigan -1
Minnesota -1
Montana +1 (+1)
New York -1
North Carolina +1
Oregon +1
Pennsylvania -1
Rhode Island -1
Texas +2 (-1)
West Virginia 0 (+1)

Solid Red States (TX, MT): +3
Swing States (CO, FL, MI, NC, PA, AZ): +1
Lean Blue States (MN): -1
Solid Blue States (IL, NY, OR, RI, CA): -3

Obama 2012 states: -4
Clinton 2016 states: -3
Freiwal: -5

#Analysis:
If the Trump administration gets its way in suppressing the count of undocumented immigrants, the net effect would be to bank 2 extra EVs for Republicans and take 1 EV away from Democrats, putting 1 more into the tossup category. The easiest electoral path for Democrats (of the current decade) would lose a single EV. This doesn't change electoral math that much, but a map like the one below would be a Dem win with undocumented immigrants counted, and a 269-269 tie without:

Nevada/Iowa AND New Hampshire become critical here.

If Arizona moves left of Wisconsin (and it should), that would provide more paths to victory, but if Arizona fails to pick up a seat due to an undercount, the Dems are hurt even more.  A map such as this:

Would also go from 270 for the Democrats to a 269-269 tie.

Sources:

http://www.pewhispanic.org/interactives/unauthorized-immigrants/
https://demographics.coopercenter.org/national-population-projections
https://www.psc.isr.umich.edu/dis/census/tools/apportionment/

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Isn't Georgia on track to gain?

Not according to the 2020 population estimates cited above.

Georgia's projected population is 10,716,000 and it would need to get above 11 million to gain another seat.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Illegal aliens and non citizens shouldn't even be voting.

They don't.   They're counted in the Census.

This. The US Constitution is fairly clear on this point. Inhabitants are counted, not just citizens.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I don’t see Calafornia losing any EV’s.

If California lost all of its undocumented immigrants in the census count, they almost certainly would.

CA had a healthy population growth in the 2010s, but they've slowed compared to other states in the Sunbelt and West.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Illegal aliens and non citizens shouldn't even be voting.

They don't.   They're counted in the Census.

They should be deported

Whether or not that's the case, they're here, so they get counted.