Is this a realistic electoral map from the 2030s?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Narrow Democrat win with Texas as the tipping point.

[Sir Mohamed]

I don't see IL trending Republican at the presidential level any time soon. Cook County is hard to overcome for any GOPer in a national election. I agree with the rest.

[RINO Tom]

Not sure.

[RINO Tom]

Absolutely, although I’m not sure about IL. And FL would be 50/50 here, I guess.

That's your only comment about his map?!

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Absolutely, although I’m not sure about IL and NH. And FL would be 50/50 here while LA should be R>50% and VT/GA D>50%, I guess.

This map is based on the premise that as IL fails to keep up with population growth in the Sunbelt, it starts to become more like its neighboring states. As the Sunbelt becomes more diverse, more educated, and younger, the Democratic Party tailors itself to its values and economic interests. The Republicans become the party of Middle America, which is less diverse, less educated, and older. FL remains a swing state due to constant influx of retirees from Middle America.

Our swing states at this point are TX, IL, GA, FL, MN, and NH.  WI, MI, PA, and possibly SC and MS, are lean R. NC, AZ, and possibly some additional states in the Northeast are lean D.

I should have LA in R>50%, not R>60%. My bad.

Louisiana is interesting, because it's quite a bit more diverse than its neighbors, and really would be a lot more of a swing state if not for its terrible relationship with government. Local, state, and federal government has failed the people of LA, especially when it comes to the environment. It outpaces the rest of the country in environmentally-related cancer rates. The confidence in government to fix and regulate this is basically zero. Also I heard there was this one hurricane that hit, the the government did a bad job of dealing with .

I don't think it has to remain this way. If Louisiana's relationship with government improves, and it sees the same sort of demographic shifts that Texas is seeing, it could become a swing state.

[Orser67]

I agree with others that IL stands out, but yeah, it seems realistic.

[wesmoorenerd]

Illinois is implausible, everything else seems quite likely though. I'm also pretty skeptical of the "Florida trending R" narrative.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Illinois is implausible, everything else seems quite likely though. I'm also pretty skeptical of the "Florida trending R" narrative.

If this map is a narrow Democratic win (let’s say that’s a D popular vote win of +2) then it wouldn’t feature Florida trending R at all relative to 2016.

The state has voted to the right of the nation for awhile now.

[Sumner 1868]

Remember how the trends of 2008 didn't correlate with future election results at all?

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Remember how the trends of 2008 didn't correlate with future election results at all?

That is not really true. They correlated with 2016 in some important ways. Obama did pretty well in suburbs and with more educated voters. And that was even more so with Clinton. And Obama did well with minority voters, which has remained the case subsequently. And Democratic strength with young voters and comparative weakness with older voters has also if anything intensified since 2008.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Illinois is implausible, everything else seems quite likely though. I'm also pretty skeptical of the "Florida trending R" narrative.

If this map is a narrow Democratic win (let’s say that’s a D popular vote win of +2) then it wouldn’t feature Florida trending R at all relative to 2016.

The state has voted to the right of the nation for awhile now.

Yeah, I kinda see Florida in stasis, just to the right of the nation, balancing between a population of conservative retirees and a growing Hispanic (especially Puerto Rican) population. Arizona might be left of them by 2020, Georgia by 2024, Texas by 2032.

Illinois, meanwhile, will see Chicago shrink while more conservative, white, outlying areas start making themselves heard.  The Second City will very soon fall to #4, behind Houston.

2020: Safe D
2024: Solid D
2028: Likely D
2032: Lean D
2036: Tossup

[jamestroll]

Illinois is implausible, everything else seems quite likely though. I'm also pretty skeptical of the "Florida trending R" narrative.

If this map is a narrow Democratic win (let’s say that’s a D popular vote win of +2) then it wouldn’t feature Florida trending R at all relative to 2016.

The state has voted to the right of the nation for awhile now.

Yeah, I kinda see Florida in stasis, just to the right of the nation, balancing between a population of conservative retirees and a growing Hispanic (especially Puerto Rican) population. Arizona might be left of them by 2020, Georgia by 2024, Texas by 2032.

Illinois, meanwhile, will see Chicago shrink while more conservative, white, outlying areas start making themselves heard.  The Second City will very soon fall to #4, behind Houston.

2020: Safe D
2024: Solid D
2028: Likely D
2032: Lean D
2036: Tossup

I would explain to you the correct view. However the fact and statistics on Lake County evolving like suburban Cook County did and the fact that downstate is losing population at sometimes a faster pace compared to Cook County will be met with blind eyes and deaf ears anyway.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Illinois is implausible, everything else seems quite likely though. I'm also pretty skeptical of the "Florida trending R" narrative.

If this map is a narrow Democratic win (let’s say that’s a D popular vote win of +2) then it wouldn’t feature Florida trending R at all relative to 2016.

The state has voted to the right of the nation for awhile now.

Yeah, I kinda see Florida in stasis, just to the right of the nation, balancing between a population of conservative retirees and a growing Hispanic (especially Puerto Rican) population. Arizona might be left of them by 2020, Georgia by 2024, Texas by 2032.

Illinois, meanwhile, will see Chicago shrink while more conservative, white, outlying areas start making themselves heard.  The Second City will very soon fall to #4, behind Houston.

2020: Safe D
2024: Solid D
2028: Likely D
2032: Lean D
2036: Tossup

I would explain to you the correct view. However the fact and statistics on Lake County evolving like suburban Cook County did and the fact that downstate is losing population at sometimes a faster pace compared to Cook County will be met with blind eyes and deaf ears anyway.

The fastest growth in the state is in places like Kendall and Kane Counties. What does this say about the overall demographic trend of Illinois?