Florida Atlantic Univ. poll: Scott +4 (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 29, 2024, 04:33:29 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2018 Senatorial Election Polls
  Florida Atlantic Univ. poll: Scott +4 (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Florida Atlantic Univ. poll: Scott +4  (Read 3568 times)
krazen1211
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,372
« on: July 29, 2018, 04:44:40 PM »
Florida polls were dead accurate in the 2016 Presidential election and underestimated the GOP in the 2016 Senate election.
Logged
krazen1211
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,372
« Reply #1 on: July 29, 2018, 04:46:40 PM »
Quote from: Zaybay on July 25, 2018, 10:30:16 PM
Quote from: IceSpear on July 25, 2018, 10:18:07 PM
Quote from: People's Speaker Pericles on July 25, 2018, 10:15:42 PM
I still struggle to see how Nelson loses in this environment, especially since he won by two landslides and Scott barely won, and Democratic incumbents in other narrow Trump win states are running away with it. I won't dismiss it out of hand, but it is confusing.

The Criminal was unpopular in 2010 and 2014, which was why he only barely won despite the waves. He's popular now.
Florida is a rather inelastic state, so I doubt popularity will get you that far. In a wave like this, with Florida's elasticity, Scott would need an approval of around +19 to win. That would be hard to accomplish.

No, its actually right in the middle.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/swing-voters-and-elastic-states/
Logged
krazen1211
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,372
« Reply #2 on: July 29, 2018, 04:48:23 PM »
Quote from: Solid4096 on July 29, 2018, 04:47:01 PM

Remember when Connie Mack was leading many polls until the final months in 2012, and then lost by 13 points.

No, that actually didn't happen. Oh well.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.026 seconds with 10 queries.