Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[pbrower2a]

Massachusetts: Emerson, April 4-7, 761 RV

Approve 29
Disapprove 62

Biden 69, Trump 31
Sanders 64, Trump 36
Warren 63, Trump 37

It doesn't change the map, but it does show how bad things can get for the President should he end up with 30% or so approval.

One I missed from Maine, and it does change the map a little:

Maine, 38-56

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B_W8V6ab5O57VlZHQ1NsR0ZIb0JBM20zU2xkbDktWThwUFow/view?usp%3Dsharing
 
Approval and disapproval ratings of Donald Trump:

With cumulative electoral vote totals in each category.

55% and higher 8
50-54% 9
49% or less and positive 38
tie (white)
44-49% and negative 91
40-43% 35
under 40%  144

An asterisk will be applied to any state in which the President's approval rating is above 43% for which the disapproval rating is 50% or higher.

No segregation of districts in Maine and Nebraska -- yet.

27 more states, and 193 electoral votes to go!

[pbrower2a]

Massachusetts: Emerson, April 4-7, 761 RV

Approve 29
Disapprove 62

Biden 69, Trump 31
Sanders 64, Trump 36
Warren 63, Trump 37

Massachusetts has been one of the worst states for Republican nominees for President, but it did vote twice for Eisenhower and Reagan. Trump ain't Reagan, and he is even less like Ike. About 60% will vote for a Democrat against a Republican who has his head on straight and has some moral compass, as in 2012. Trump looks as if he could easily lose Massachusetts by 25%.

One that I missed -- Maine:

Definitely for Trump: 27.3
Consider 14.3
Definitely not vote for Trump: 53.2

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B_W8V6ab5O57VlZHQ1NsR0ZIb0JBM20zU2xkbDktWThwUFow/view?usp%3Dsharing


To Trump or not to Trump, as I put it:

[Sestak]

According to RCP, Pelosi and Trump's approvals match at -8.6

Considering how badly congressional leaders almost always poll, that’s amazing for Pelosi and horrendous for Trump.

[Person Man]

According to RCP, Pelosi and Trump's approvals match at -8.6

Considering how badly congressional leaders almost always poll, that’s amazing for Pelosi and horrendous for Trump.

There’s a bunch of ways that those numbers can be interpreted.

[pbrower2a]

According to RCP, Pelosi and Trump's approvals match at -8.6

Considering how badly congressional leaders almost always poll, that’s amazing for Pelosi and horrendous for Trump.

There’s a bunch of ways that those numbers can be interpreted.

True.Context is nearly everything with any statistic, including polling data.

[GeorgiaModerate]

According to RCP, Pelosi and Trump's approvals match at -8.6

Considering how badly congressional leaders almost always poll, that’s amazing for Pelosi and horrendous for Trump.

There’s a bunch of ways that those numbers can be interpreted.

True.Context is nearly everything with any statistic, including polling data.

Including that perennial Atlas favorite: "I don't like the result of this poll, therefore it is trash."

[GeorgiaModerate]

IBD/TIPP, March 28-April 6, 907 adults (1-month change)

Approve 41 (nc)
Disapprove 52 (-1)

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

IBD/TIPP, March 28-April 6, 907 adults (1-month change)

Approve 41 (nc)
Disapprove 52 (-1)

Trump vindication surge!

[pbrower2a]

According to RCP, Pelosi and Trump's approvals match at -8.6

Considering how badly congressional leaders almost always poll, that’s amazing for Pelosi and horrendous for Trump.

There’s a bunch of ways that those numbers can be interpreted.

True.Context is nearly everything with any statistic, including polling data.

Including that perennial Atlas favorite: "I don't like the result of this poll, therefore it is trash."

With a simple outlier I take note and insist upon verification with a later poll. If a poll has suspect methodology i explain what is suspect. I did not accept the Emerson poll of Nevada because it does not poll people who use cell phones but not land-lines who are more likely to be young, Hispanic, and urban.

[GeorgiaModerate]

According to RCP, Pelosi and Trump's approvals match at -8.6

Considering how badly congressional leaders almost always poll, that’s amazing for Pelosi and horrendous for Trump.

There’s a bunch of ways that those numbers can be interpreted.

True.Context is nearly everything with any statistic, including polling data.

Including that perennial Atlas favorite: "I don't like the result of this poll, therefore it is trash."

With a simple outlier I take note and insist upon verification with a later poll. If a poll has suspect methodology i explain what is suspect. I did not accept the Emerson poll of Nevada because it does not poll people who use cell phones but not land-lines who are more likely to be young, Hispanic, and urban.

You weren't the one I had in mind. 

[pbrower2a]

But I recognize the need to explain when I discount a poll. Some outliers suggest significant change in the likely course of an ensuing election. Political campaigns can collapse, scandals can erupt, and one of the nominees can get a sudden charge of political energy.

So should I see this sort of poll in September 2020

Rasmussen Reports: Michigan

Trump, approval 55%, disapproval 41%

after we are accustomed to seeing a near-inverse for most of the Trump era, then it is tempting to say "But it is Rasmussen". This said, the latest reality is the dominant reality in predicting an election.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Lake Research/Tarrance Group (R), March 31-April 4, 1000 LV

Approve 43
Disapprove 52

Strongly approve 31
Strongly disapprove 44

[Thatkat04]

So Rasmussen has Trump at +8 points today at 53/45. They also put this opinion piece on their website.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_brian_joondeph/trump_is_popping_in_the_polls

So, I ask again, why do RCP and 538 continue to include them in their aggregates? They're terrible performance in 2018 along with huge outliers this last week are proof they've dropped any pretext of being an actual pollster.

[Comrade Funk]

So Rasmussen has Trump at +8 points today at 53/45. They also put this opinion piece on their website.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_brian_joondeph/trump_is_popping_in_the_polls

So, I ask again, why do RCP and 538 continue to include them in their aggregates? They're terrible performance in 2018 along with huge outliers this last week are proof they've dropped any pretext of being an actual pollster.

RCP is the same website that thought Bush would win California

[Bandit3 the Worker]

So Rasmussen has Trump at +8 points today at 53/45. They also put this opinion piece on their website.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_brian_joondeph/trump_is_popping_in_the_polls

So, I ask again, why do RCP and 538 continue to include them in their aggregates? They're terrible performance in 2018 along with huge outliers this last week are proof they've dropped any pretext of being an actual pollster.

Not only that, but the article also claims Elizabeth Warren is over 70. She isn't.

[Virginiá]

New thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=318051.0