PPP-MN: Generic D +7
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  PPP-MN: Generic D +7
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Author Topic: PPP-MN: Generic D +7  (Read 2108 times)
TheRocketRaccoon
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« on: June 19, 2018, 12:24:41 PM »

https://www.scribd.com/document/382108093/Minnesota-PPP-Trump-Poll

Generic D 46
Generic R 39

Does Pawlenty calling Trump unfit to be President, and then voting for him anyway, affect the likelihood of you voting for him?

Less likely 48
More likely 13
No difference 33
Not sure 5
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YE
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« Reply #1 on: June 19, 2018, 12:30:13 PM »

But I thought 2016 trends were permanent and MN-01 and MN-08 were gone for Dems.
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BBD
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« Reply #2 on: June 19, 2018, 12:35:58 PM »

Would be interesting to see results from individual districts rather than the state as a whole.
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« Reply #3 on: June 19, 2018, 12:53:08 PM »

But I thought 2016 trends were permanent and MN-01 and MN-08 were gone for Dems.
Except in NV and VA of course where the GOP is still very competitive.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #4 on: June 19, 2018, 03:49:04 PM »

As expected, Minnesota is snapping back to the Democrats.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #5 on: June 19, 2018, 03:59:57 PM »

As expected, Minnesota is snapping back to the Democrats.

Shame, but like you said, expected. At least in the midterms.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #6 on: June 19, 2018, 04:13:41 PM »

Not surprising. Olds in MN are more Democratic than youngs + the general Democratic enthusiasm will ensure that the non-old vote is more Democratic than it would be otherwise. The former is a huge reason why Dems held on there in 2010/14 when cracking most everywhere else comparable.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #7 on: June 19, 2018, 07:13:26 PM »

Hahaha as expected. Pawlenty is far from a strong candidate.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #8 on: June 19, 2018, 09:11:13 PM »

They didn't have anyone else to run, but Pawlenty was encouraged to run for Gov, by Walker, who is also an endangered GOPer, like Pawlenty.
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« Reply #9 on: June 19, 2018, 10:05:11 PM »

This is Generic D v. Generic R so not a perfect measure of Pawlenty's support, but it seems about right.
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peenie_weenie
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« Reply #10 on: June 19, 2018, 10:08:23 PM »

God I can't wait to see Minnesota county maps in November. I want to see if the D-rebound is all in Twin Cities suburbs or if rural areas (particularly West-Central counties like Big Stone) flip back. It will be a great indicator for 2020 about the elasticity of these rural midwestern counties in federal elections.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #11 on: June 20, 2018, 05:02:10 AM »

Dems should win the upper Midwest by a 51-47 margin
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Galaxie
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« Reply #12 on: June 25, 2018, 12:49:00 PM »

Dems should win the upper Midwest by a 51-47 margin

Minnesota is Little Canada, it'll come home Wink
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Virginiá
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« Reply #13 on: June 25, 2018, 12:55:51 PM »

I'm curious what the generic ballot for Congress / legislative races is in Minnesota. The question they asked was for Governor, so it's not quite the same. Democrats won the US House vote by almost 20 points and still only won 5 seats, so their House vote share might need to be much higher than D+7.
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henster
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« Reply #14 on: June 25, 2018, 08:50:53 PM »

At this point I'd be surprised if Pawlenty won the primary.
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« Reply #15 on: June 30, 2018, 12:36:40 PM »

Dems should win the upper Midwest by a 51-47 margin

Minnesota is Little Canada, it'll come home Wink

Funny enough there's actually a suburb named Little Canada.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #16 on: June 30, 2018, 12:44:56 PM »

Would be interesting to see results from individual districts rather than the state as a whole.
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snowguy716
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« Reply #17 on: July 18, 2018, 05:29:37 PM »

Dems should win the upper Midwest by a 51-47 margin

Minnesota is Little Canada, it'll come home Wink
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Galaxie
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« Reply #18 on: July 18, 2018, 05:30:43 PM »

Omg yes Minnesota own it
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Zaybay
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« Reply #19 on: July 18, 2018, 05:32:11 PM »

Not surprising. Olds in MN are more Democratic than youngs + the general Democratic enthusiasm will ensure that the non-old vote is more Democratic than it would be otherwise. The former is a huge reason why Dems held on there in 2010/14 when cracking most everywhere else comparable.
Ive always found this weird, then again, Im pretty sure this state has had the longest streak for Dems. Its like WV, or the deep south.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #20 on: July 18, 2018, 05:36:46 PM »

Not surprising. Olds in MN are more Democratic than youngs + the general Democratic enthusiasm will ensure that the non-old vote is more Democratic than it would be otherwise. The former is a huge reason why Dems held on there in 2010/14 when cracking most everywhere else comparable.
Ive always found this weird, then again, Im pretty sure this state has had the longest streak for Dems. Its like WV, or the deep south.

Yep. It wasn't that long ago at all that states like TN and AR were more Democratic among olds than youngs, and even today, there's evidence to suggest that it holds true in states like MO: Kerry won the 65+ vote in all three of those states (while ironically losing in MN, as well as WA, OR, VT & NY)!

(FWIW IL is an error on that map; should be Democratic)

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Zaybay
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« Reply #21 on: July 18, 2018, 05:40:32 PM »

Not surprising. Olds in MN are more Democratic than youngs + the general Democratic enthusiasm will ensure that the non-old vote is more Democratic than it would be otherwise. The former is a huge reason why Dems held on there in 2010/14 when cracking most everywhere else comparable.
Ive always found this weird, then again, Im pretty sure this state has had the longest streak for Dems. Its like WV, or the deep south.

Yep. It wasn't that long ago at all that states like TN and AR were more Democratic among olds than youngs, and even today, there's evidence to suggest that it holds true in states like MO: Kerry won the 65+ vote in all three of those states (while ironically losing in MN, as well as WA, OR, VT & NY)!

(FWIW IL is an error on that map; should be Democratic)



Something interesting to note. The Older/Younger dynamic has existed for most of politics, but it actually used to be reversed. The greatest Generation, one of the most liberal, had to constantly face their younger counterparts, gen X and the baby boomers. Democrats used to dominate the older vote until they all died out, and were replaced by silents and boomers, who are much more Republican.

Just an interesting fact.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #22 on: July 24, 2018, 08:07:44 AM »

Not surprising. Olds in MN are more Democratic than youngs + the general Democratic enthusiasm will ensure that the non-old vote is more Democratic than it would be otherwise. The former is a huge reason why Dems held on there in 2010/14 when cracking most everywhere else comparable.
Ive always found this weird, then again, Im pretty sure this state has had the longest streak for Dems. Its like WV, or the deep south.

Yep. It wasn't that long ago at all that states like TN and AR were more Democratic among olds than youngs, and even today, there's evidence to suggest that it holds true in states like MO: Kerry won the 65+ vote in all three of those states (while ironically losing in MN, as well as WA, OR, VT & NY)!

(FWIW IL is an error on that map; should be Democratic)



As late as 2004 there were still elderly people who remembered the New Deal making their lives better, and they could never vote Republican.
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hofoid
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« Reply #23 on: July 24, 2018, 01:21:21 PM »
« Edited: July 24, 2018, 01:25:30 PM by 1-Term Donnelly »

I'm willing to bet this is all concentrated in the Twin Cities Metro only...and Outstate (which matters much more in legislative majorities and the Congressional races) is more like North Dakota.
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