GA-SurveyUSA/11AliveTV: Stacey Abrams only down 2 against both Republicans

[brand_allen]

Awesome! This survey sample is whiter than the electorate will actually be.

True. 2014 GA Sen exits pinned the white/black breakdown of the electorate at 64/29 (without an African American leading a major party ticket). SurveyUSA finds the breakdown at 68/24% (*with* an African American leading a major party ticket).

That being said, we all know exit polls are not infallible and that SurveyUSA, while a very reputable pollster, is known for having some screwy crosstabs at times.

[brand_allen]

I'm of two minds about this. On one hand, it's pretty good for Abrams that she's only trailing by 2 in an electorate that is certainly less black than the one on election day will be. On the other hand, this should theoretically be one of the times she's polling best due to the GOP infighting over the past couple months.

Overall, this still looks like a respectable loss for Abrams to me.

This is where I'm at as well. Though it should be almost verboten, looking at those racial crosstabs and adjusting them to 2014's baseline, this is what the poll would show:

Abrams   45.4 ( +2.8 )
Cagle       42.6

Abrams   47.6 ( +4.5 )
Kemp       43.1

(Though FWIW, Carter was leading in polls around this time 4 years ago)

...and if you were to adjust to the 2016 baseline of 60% white, 30% black, the SurveyUSA result becomes...

Abrams: 46.2%
Cagle: 40.3%

Abrams: 47.1%
Kemp: 41.3%