WV-Trafalgar Group: Manchin +10
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  WV-Trafalgar Group: Manchin +10
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Author Topic: WV-Trafalgar Group: Manchin +10  (Read 2942 times)
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jrk26
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« Reply #25 on: July 25, 2018, 03:44:40 PM »

I doubt a single SCOTUS vote will cause that huge a swing.

He might be looking for an excuse to reject him -- such as the conclusion that the ruling that doomed the Nixon Presidency was wrong. "I supported him until" is an effective way of showing bipartisanship in principle even if there must be exceptions.

Manchin I swear... you better vote for Kavanaugh! We aint losin ya buddy!

Sure, because it's totally worth having a Democrat in the Senate who doesn't vote with the Democrats when it counts.

Would you rather have someone who votes with your party 40% of the time, or someone who votes with your party 3% of the time. That's the difference between Manchin and Generic Republican. Morrisey is Generic Republican. Therefore, if I were a Democrat, I would be expressing my support for Manchin as well.

I would vote for Manchin if I was in WV, but I would do so grudgingly.  I don't think him voting for a ridiculous SCOTUS nominee is anything to applaud, though, especially since I don't think he really has to in order to be reelected.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #26 on: July 25, 2018, 03:53:35 PM »

I doubt a single SCOTUS vote will cause that huge a swing.

He might be looking for an excuse to reject him -- such as the conclusion that the ruling that doomed the Nixon Presidency was wrong. "I supported him until" is an effective way of showing bipartisanship in principle even if there must be exceptions.

Manchin I swear... you better vote for Kavanaugh! We aint losin ya buddy!

Sure, because it's totally worth having a Democrat in the Senate who doesn't vote with the Democrats when it counts.

Would you rather have someone who votes with your party 40% of the time, or someone who votes with your party 3% of the time. That's the difference between Manchin and Generic Republican. Morrisey is Generic Republican. Therefore, if I were a Democrat, I would be expressing my support for Manchin as well.

I would vote for Manchin if I was in WV, but I would do so grudgingly.  I don't think him voting for a ridiculous SCOTUS nominee is anything to applaud, though, especially since I don't think he really has to in order to be reelected.

Voting for Kavanaugh helps to maintain his standing, and there was a poll that came out recently suggesting that the race would be a dead heat if he voted in the negative. But that is a whole other matter. As for Manchin himself, you have to understand that West Virginia is not the state for some full-blown progressive to be campaigning at this stage. Social liberalism does not play well there, and a candidate who embraced such views would probably lose by a wide margin. Manchin is the best Democrat that the Party can get from that state at this point.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #27 on: July 25, 2018, 05:18:04 PM »

I doubt a single SCOTUS vote will cause that huge a swing.

He might be looking for an excuse to reject him -- such as the conclusion that the ruling that doomed the Nixon Presidency was wrong. "I supported him until" is an effective way of showing bipartisanship in principle even if there must be exceptions.

Manchin I swear... you better vote for Kavanaugh! We aint losin ya buddy!

Sure, because it's totally worth having a Democrat in the Senate who doesn't vote with the Democrats when it counts.

Would you rather have someone who votes with your party 40% of the time, or someone who votes with your party 3% of the time. That's the difference between Manchin and Generic Republican. Morrisey is Generic Republican. Therefore, if I were a Democrat, I would be expressing my support for Manchin as well.

I would vote for Manchin if I was in WV, but I would do so grudgingly.  I don't think him voting for a ridiculous SCOTUS nominee is anything to applaud, though, especially since I don't think he really has to in order to be reelected.

Voting for Kavanaugh helps to maintain his standing, and there was a poll that came out recently suggesting that the race would be a dead heat if he voted in the negative. But that is a whole other matter. As for Manchin himself, you have to understand that West Virginia is not the state for some full-blown progressive to be campaigning at this stage. Social liberalism does not play well there, and a candidate who embraced such views would probably lose by a wide margin. Manchin is the best Democrat that the Party can get from that state at this point.

This, and also we might not even need him to oppose Kavanaugh. It looks like no Republican besides Paul is even seriously considering voting against him, so even if Manchin voted no, Kavanaugh would still get the seat, and Manchin would face a race where he is no longer the clear favorite. Therefore we need Manchin for Kavanaugh.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #28 on: July 25, 2018, 05:23:06 PM »

Manchin will say he will vote for Kavanaugh after he meets with him if Collins etc do so as well. He will then rescind his decision if a sufficiently dirty thing comes out on Kavanaugh that gives Dems a chance to block him.
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #29 on: July 27, 2018, 11:27:59 AM »

New Poll: West Virginia Senator by Trafalgar Group on 2018-07-16

Summary: D: 50%, R: 40%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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