Florida Atlantic Univ. poll: Scott +4
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  Florida Atlantic Univ. poll: Scott +4
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Author Topic: Florida Atlantic Univ. poll: Scott +4  (Read 3354 times)
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #25 on: July 27, 2018, 02:21:11 PM »

The '18 Florida Senate race seems like a race that if Nelson was a smart, scrappy campaigner like Claire McCaskill ... he would most likely win.  The question is, does Nelson have a smart, scrappy campaign team? (A question I do not know the answer to)

I answer your question, answer is no.

Nelson will win, its a poll within margin of error; however, the best chance for a pickup is IN.Final poll on election day
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Hollywood
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« Reply #26 on: July 27, 2018, 02:57:39 PM »

I think voter turnout is going to be critical in this race.  I haven't bumped into a single democrat that has talked to me about this race, but I've had numerous republicans bring it up at bars.  I told a Uber, die hear, Democrat co-worker about it on Tuesday and the guy was unaware.  I just don't think Democrats are as aware as Republican voters.  And it's not like Scott is hugely unpopular (at least not after he began campaigning many months ago).  So I do think a number like 44-40 makes sense in this poll, cause I can imagine the other 16% of voters not having the where-with-all to show up.  If Bill Nelson can bring out the vote than I think Scott loses by 1-3%.  If he can't, he's going to lose.  Cause Scott is not the type of candidate to miss an opportunity to win.  His campaign will search under every rock for a republican.  
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #27 on: July 27, 2018, 06:13:04 PM »

Originally, I thought West Virginia was going to be the Republican's lone gain. Now I think it'll be Florida.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #28 on: July 27, 2018, 06:20:08 PM »

If Nelson loses, Dems would have to go back to drawing board on Latino outreach. It's only a 4 point race
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pppolitics
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« Reply #29 on: July 27, 2018, 09:42:54 PM »

Is it possible for the DNC to fire the Florida Democratic Party?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #30 on: July 27, 2018, 09:49:30 PM »

The Dems have Debbie Wasserman as the Leader of the FL Dems. They fired her chair of DNC, not FL
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Person Man
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« Reply #31 on: July 28, 2018, 06:59:23 AM »

If Nelson loses, Dems would have to go back to drawing board on Latino outreach. It's only a 4 point race
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #32 on: July 28, 2018, 09:10:45 AM »

Is it possible for the DNC to fire the Florida Democratic Party?

Maybe wait untill after the election to say this. I'm actually pretty hopeful we win both the senate and governors races at the moment.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #33 on: July 29, 2018, 07:17:20 AM »

Dems can win the Gubernatorial election and lose the Senate election
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krazen1211
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« Reply #34 on: July 29, 2018, 04:44:40 PM »

Florida polls were dead accurate in the 2016 Presidential election and underestimated the GOP in the 2016 Senate election.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #35 on: July 29, 2018, 04:46:40 PM »

I still struggle to see how Nelson loses in this environment, especially since he won by two landslides and Scott barely won, and Democratic incumbents in other narrow Trump win states are running away with it. I won't dismiss it out of hand, but it is confusing.

The Criminal was unpopular in 2010 and 2014, which was why he only barely won despite the waves. He's popular now.
Florida is a rather inelastic state, so I doubt popularity will get you that far. In a wave like this, with Florida's elasticity, Scott would need an approval of around +19 to win. That would be hard to accomplish.

No, its actually right in the middle.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/swing-voters-and-elastic-states/
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
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« Reply #36 on: July 29, 2018, 04:47:01 PM »


Remember when Connie Mack was leading many polls until the final months in 2012, and then lost by 13 points.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #37 on: July 29, 2018, 04:48:23 PM »


Remember when Connie Mack was leading many polls until the final months in 2012, and then lost by 13 points.

No, that actually didn't happen. Oh well.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #38 on: July 29, 2018, 04:49:16 PM »
« Edited: July 29, 2018, 04:53:46 PM by superbudgie1582 »

Florida polls were dead accurate in the 2016 Presidential election and underestimated the GOP in the 2016 Senate election.

But overestimated republicans in 2012, most notably underestimating Nelson's performance.

Edit: And a few polls did show Mack with a lead in July.

Edit 2: Although I will quote this post if polls start showing Nelson running away with this in a few months.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #39 on: July 29, 2018, 07:29:31 PM »

I think all non hacks can agree that Nelson is not running away with anything. He may pull the needle to a one to two point edging out of Scott, but this is no run away race for either side, especially Nelson.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #40 on: July 29, 2018, 07:30:26 PM »

I have never guessed so far that Rick Scott will win this race, and my guess is still that Nelson wins by a fraction of a percentage point now.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #41 on: July 30, 2018, 08:32:24 AM »

I think all non hacks can agree that Nelson is not running away with anything. He may pull the needle to a one to two point edging out of Scott, but this is no run away race for either side, especially Nelson.

I guess we'll have to wait and see mr. non-hack poster.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #42 on: July 30, 2018, 12:36:07 PM »

I think all non hacks can agree that Nelson is not running away with anything. He may pull the needle to a one to two point edging out of Scott, but this is no run away race for either side, especially Nelson.

I guess we'll have to wait and see mr. non-hack poster.

Ok Mr. It's just a Connie Mack Redux.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #43 on: July 30, 2018, 12:37:18 PM »

I think all non hacks can agree that Nelson is not running away with anything. He may pull the needle to a one to two point edging out of Scott, but this is no run away race for either side, especially Nelson.

I guess we'll have to wait and see mr. non-hack poster.

Ok Mr. It's just a Connie Mack Redux.

I never said it was.
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Greatblueheron
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« Reply #44 on: July 30, 2018, 10:37:55 PM »

It’s pretty obvious that Rick Scott has a narrow lead right now. Honestly, it’s quite shocking that a 3-term senator like Bill Nelson is running such a lack-luster reelection campaign. Right now I’d predict that Rick Scott defeats Bill Nelson by one or two points.
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YE
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« Reply #45 on: July 30, 2018, 10:51:08 PM »

It’s pretty obvious that Rick Scott has a narrow lead right now. Honestly, it’s quite shocking that a 3-term senator like Bill Nelson is running such a lack-luster reelection campaign. Right now I’d predict that Rick Scott defeats Bill Nelson by one or two points.

Given that Marist and PPP are the two of the most recent reputable posters, I’m not convinced Nelson is not winning. The CBS poll has Scott up 5 to be fair but I don’t know how much weight should really be applied to Gravis, this, or St Leo.
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