South African General Election, 2019

[Republican Left]

Just a poster who has a few questions about South Africa's elections.

1) Does Cyril's victory strengthen the ANC's prospects? Does it kill DA and EFF's chances?

2) Do you think Maimane could help broaden and build up DA even if he doesn't win?

3) Was EFF's "win" back in the last election season a fluke? Will they end up like COPE which collapsed (and why did COPE collapse while EFF rose)?

4) How is South Africa doing?

Have a good week.

1. If you asked me a few months ago, I would say he seriously strenghtened the ANC's chances. Now it seems like it was a honeymoon period, or as people say "Ramaphoria is fading". The cost of living is constantly going up and the economy is not doing well at all. Don't get me wrong: I'd still say ANC's chances are better with him than with Zuma (except in KZN), but if things don't improve soon the election is not going to be a cake walk for him.

2. Maimane has a big problem, and that is that he has this incredibly delicate balancing act to do. Every time he tries to say something with the hope of getting more black votes, he risks pissing some whites off. An example of that would be his remarks on Freedom Day about "white privilage". Lord did I see many angry comments over that one. Add to that the DA's problems in the Western Cape with the drought and the De Lille situation, and my bet right now is on DA doing worse in 2019 than they did in 2014.

3. EFF will in all likelyhood not end up like COPE. Because they have a distinct ideological identity and they are filling a void on the political spectrum. There is also nothing like the Lekota vs Shilowa feud; instead Malema is the leader and few would question that. However, EFF is not really growing either. They seem stuck around 6-8%. Maybe that's as big as that kind of party will ever get?

4. Not all that well, in my view. Unemployment, already alarmingly high, has grown this year. Racial tensions seem to be getting worse too, at least judging from social media. The fact that the ANC has started talking about amending the constitution to expropriate land without compensation also does not help matters.

Why did COPE collapse?

[Intell]

Indians support the DA and even supported the national party in south africa's first election right? Any reason why they were averse to the ANC?

[parochial boy]

Indians support the DA and even supported the national party in south africa's first election right? Any reason why they were averse to the ANC?

Predominantly the DA, but it's actually a fairly mixed picture - there has traditionally been a lot of support for the ANC, and the Indians used to have their own party in Amichand Rajbansi's "Minority Front" (which won substantial levels of the Indian vote - but never actually a majority of it). The MF vote had also collapsed, mostly into the DA, before Rajbansi passed away a couple of years ago.

The vast majority of Indians live in KwaZulu-Natal, especially around Durban and the Natal coast, where they were brought as indentured labourers by the English to work on sugar plantations, which means that the best places to look at the Indian vote are the Durban Indian townships of Chatsworth (south of the city centre) and Phoenix (to the north). Back in 2016, both went pretty solidly DA, but less so than white areas, except for a couple of wards won by Independents who were ex-Minority Front members. As mentioned earlier, the ANC actually won a by-election in Chatsworth back in October, partly this is demographic changes, but it does show that the ANC can still win substantial levels of support among Indian South Africans.

Adding to that, the Indian vote has had a traditionally quite pronounced class gap. Wealthier Indians have traditionally been more likely to support the ANC, thanks to its liberation credentials; and there have been a number of very senior Indian ANC politicians, most notably Pravin Gordhan; and Zuma's, um, controversial "allies" the Gupta family are also Indian South African.

Poorer Indians have traditionally been more inclined to vote for opposition parties - for reasons that are not too dissimilar to Coloureds; fear of the relative loss of status to the black masses / competition for jobs and privileges and resentment of demographic changes in formerly Indian townships as well as concerns about the ANC's African nationalist turn under Zuma (which explains why they were willing to return to Ramaphosa). There can be a fair amount of tension between Indians and blacks - one of the most straight out racist things I have ever heard in South Africa was an Indian taxi driver who claimed that "the only thing the blacks know how to do is rape and kill"...

[Tintrlvr]

Just a poster who has a few questions about South Africa's elections.

1) Does Cyril's victory strengthen the ANC's prospects? Does it kill DA and EFF's chances?

2) Do you think Maimane could help broaden and build up DA even if he doesn't win?

3) Was EFF's "win" back in the last election season a fluke? Will they end up like COPE which collapsed (and why did COPE collapse while EFF rose)?

4) How is South Africa doing?

Have a good week.

1. If you asked me a few months ago, I would say he seriously strenghtened the ANC's chances. Now it seems like it was a honeymoon period, or as people say "Ramaphoria is fading". The cost of living is constantly going up and the economy is not doing well at all. Don't get me wrong: I'd still say ANC's chances are better with him than with Zuma (except in KZN), but if things don't improve soon the election is not going to be a cake walk for him.

2. Maimane has a big problem, and that is that he has this incredibly delicate balancing act to do. Every time he tries to say something with the hope of getting more black votes, he risks pissing some whites off. An example of that would be his remarks on Freedom Day about "white privilage". Lord did I see many angry comments over that one. Add to that the DA's problems in the Western Cape with the drought and the De Lille situation, and my bet right now is on DA doing worse in 2019 than they did in 2014.

3. EFF will in all likelyhood not end up like COPE. Because they have a distinct ideological identity and they are filling a void on the political spectrum. There is also nothing like the Lekota vs Shilowa feud; instead Malema is the leader and few would question that. However, EFF is not really growing either. They seem stuck around 6-8%. Maybe that's as big as that kind of party will ever get?

4. Not all that well, in my view. Unemployment, already alarmingly high, has grown this year. Racial tensions seem to be getting worse too, at least judging from social media. The fact that the ANC has started talking about amending the constitution to expropriate land without compensation also does not help matters.

Why did COPE collapse?

COPE never had any ideology or public backing, it was just a group of Mbeki loyalists and other random dissenters who were forced out of the ANC when Zuma took over. As the Zuma years wore on, the public became even less interested in rehashing the Mbeki-Zuma conflict (not to mention that Mbeki was deeply unpopular by the end of his Presidency, so it's not like there was grassroots interest in supporting his legacy), and the clientelist networks by which the handful of COPE politicians initially retained their political relevance decayed once they no longer had access to the levers of power within the ANC.

[parochial boy]

If it smells like bulls**t it probably is buls**t, but...



Poll done by the "Association for Free Research and International Cooperation (AFRIC)" based on face-to-face interviews.

If true, it would seem to indicate that the DA's various scandals and Maimane's attempts to triangulate between the liberals and the soft-social-democrats and the various demographic groups who make up the DA's electoral coalition isn't really working.

EFF number looks like fiction though tbh

[parochial boy]

Some highlight's from the DA's manifesto, for posterity:

 - No expropration without compensation
 - Privatise electricity and South Afrcan Airways
 - "Allow" employees to opt out of the minimum wage
 - Make it easier to lay off employees
 - Restrictions on the right for Trade Unions to call strikes, and holding Unions legally responsible for damage
 - Opposition to public, universal healthcare
 - A lot of words, but very little concrete policy, on race relations

[Former President tack50]

Well, other than "no expropiation without compensation" and maybe the making layoffs easier (depends on South Africa's laws) that seems like a very right wing manifesto.

Will it hurt the DA?

[LoneStarDem]

What's the political fallout from the seizing of land from Anglo South Africans ?

[parochial boy]

What's the political fallout from the seizing of land from Anglo South Africans ?

It's not really English speakers who are being affected by the proposed land expropriation. Anglos are more concentrated in the big cities. There are some English farmers, primarily in the old Albany region in the Eastern Cape and in KwaZulu-Natal; but overwhelmingly it's Afrikaner farmers.

As for any fallout, well, everyone is going to vote for whoever they were going to vote for anyway. The DA are going to drop in support, primarily because Ramaphosa isn't Zuma - so a lot of the "new black middle class" types who they won in 2014/16 will likely go back to the ANC; but also because the DA has had it's own scandals involving the mismanagement of the water crisis in the Western Cape, and a series of resignations involving accusations of bullying and racism within the party.

Really, the whole land expropriation issue being at the top of the agenda is the fallout of Ramaphosa replacing Zuma at the top of the ANC. It's a consequence, not a cause. There is a line of theory that goes that the pro-business-liberal Ramaphosa needede to endorse the policy to keep the Zuma wing and Zuma's voters on board. The ANC is currently waging something of an internal factionalist war between the Ramaphosa "centrist" wing and the Zuma "radical nationalist" one. If (and that is if) EFF do well, it is probably down to precisely a loss of nationalist voters away from the ANC.

Well, other than "no expropiation without compensation" and maybe the making layoffs easier (depends on South Africa's laws) that seems like a very right wing manifesto.

Will it hurt the DA?

Unilkely tbh, no-one votes on policies in South Africa. The ANC will campaign on the same "hope and change" message, for, like, the 6th time in a row. Except this time, there's no Zuma so it's got to work right?

And the DA will campaign on how terrible the ANC are, while staying very quiet about what they would do that would be any better.

[Kosmos]

Proposals of privatising Eskom and SAA should be seen in the light of how much of a mess these entities have become. They are a huge drain on the fiscus, with endless problems despite many bailouts.

As an aside, the right wing Freedom Front Plus held their manifesto launch the other day. Quite a good number of coloured members these days, it seems. I guess the common language (afrikaans) has made it easier for this once entirely white party to expand into new voting segments.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EVbsI8zPX8I

[Republican Left]

How did that party get any support from colors especially considering their main identity and history; additionally, aren't the DA the main party for colors (tbh, not really informed so I'm open to being given a quick lesson about this)?

[parochial boy]

How did that party get any support from colors especially considering their main identity and history; additionally, aren't the DA the main party for colors (tbh, not really informed so I'm open to being given a quick lesson about this)?

I think it's worth relativising it a bit. VF+ will in all likelihood, make some pretty decent gains this year. But even if we assume that they get up to 1.5% of the vote, and that a solid third of their electorate is Coloured - we'd still only be talking about them winning 4-5% of the Coloured vote.

As for why they are getting support, based on that video, it is mainly down to the same concerns that have most Coloureds voting for the DA already - fears about rising crime; their displacement by, largely Xhosa, migrants from traditional "coloured" spaces; loss of the old era relative privileges and feelings of having been the main losers of the contemporary political landscape.

With the VF+ in particular, they have toned down a lot of the "Boer" nationalism of the early democratic years. They hardly even talk about the "Volkstaat" any more, and even now, it is these days generally posited as an autonomous 10th province - not the radical independent or quasi-independent bantustan that was touted in back in 1994. (It's worth pointing out that the area that this 10th province should take up is actually already majority Coloured and Afrikaans speaking).

They have also become more and more of a catch all party sticking up for "minority rights" and the like, which has meant rhetorically moving beyond the pure Boer nationalism; as well as being something of an anti-DA protest vote, as some people tend to think the Maimane-led DA is a bit too anti-white (eg, accepting that "white privilege" may be a thing...).

Beyond that, there has also been something of an effort in the last couple of decades to turn "Afrikaner" identity into something more broadly based on the Afrikaans language, rather than specifically based on Whiteness. So, as Coloureds are Afrikaans speakers (mostly) too, the modern conception of Afrikaner nationalism sort of has to include them. Arguably, this is also compounded by the fact that there is a general class divide within Coloured communities, whereby wealthier ones tend to speak English; while poorer ones, those who are most affected by crime/poverty/the "pain" of relative loss of privilege and therefore probably more inclined to vote for a more radical party like VF+, tend to speak Afrikaans. (Also,note that there have always been currents of this in the Afrikaner nationalist ideology that are more inclusive of a language based nationalism that includes Coloureds, even back in the 1940s, Nicolaas Havenga was seen as a "moderate" for wanting to include Coloureds within the wider Afrikaner umbrella).

[parochial boy]

This is just a week away tomorroy, and we have a bit of a Shock Poll from the South African Institute of Race Relations has the ANC dropping below 50% (with 5% undecided/refusing to answer/won't vote....)

ANC - 49.5%
DA - 21.3%
EFF - 14.9%
IFP - 3%
VF+ - 1.8%
ACDP - 1.6%

everyone else under 1%, Patricia De Lille's party stuggling on just 0.2%.

Although the ANC have had a pretty terrible campaign (eg managing to create an outrage by including a load of people implicated in various state capture / corruption scandals on their party lists) which has killed the Ramaphosa honeymoon, this is probably worth taking with a pinch of salt. The IRR always show low numbers for the ANC, and as an organisation have a very clear ideologically liberal tilt. It's also not entirely in line with municipal by election results, which often, but not always show the ANC losing by small, or large amounts. But by elections have miniscule turnouts and protest votes, so...

Also looks like a huge result for VF+, even with anglos and coloureds supporting the party, that's still like 25% or more of the Afrikaner vote, which seems high.

crosstabs by race, for fun:

Blacks:

ANC - 61.6%
DA - 7.4%
EFF - 18.7%

Whites:
ANC - 4.3%
DA - 68.6%
EFF - 0.8% (wtf, I really want to meet some of these people)

Coloureds:
ANC - 10.9%
DA - 68.5%
EFF - 4.7%

Indians:
ANC - 12.6%
DA - 60.4%
EFF - 0.0%

[DC Al Fine]

Well to be fair, at 0.8% of whites , that result could be one guy answering a question wrong.

[parochial boy]

I figured two people given the sample size, so one made a mistake and the other was trolling

I have actually come across a couple of articles about white EFF voters, one was a gay communist student union leader, and the others were some very pissed of people in a squatter camp. So we ain't exactly talking mainstream opinions here...

[Tintrlvr]

I figured two people given the sample size, so one made a mistake and the other was trolling

I have actually come across a couple of articles about white EFF voters, one was a gay communist student union leader, and the others were some very pissed of people in a squatter camp. So we ain't exactly talking mainstream opinions here...

Honestly it seems like there is more genuine reason for a white voter to support EFF than the ANC. if you're a far-left true believer in socialism (not social democracy), no matter your race, you should be voting EFF, and I am not surprised that there are some genuinely socialist whites in South Africa. But what reason do white voters have to support the ANC, especially in federal elections? (I could see potentially the relevance in local elections.)

[parochial boy]

This is tomorrow! Polls close at 22.00 South African time, which is 22.00 CET / 16.00 Eastern US.

Final polls out today from the IRR suggest the ANC heading towards 53%, with the DA on 24% and EFF on 14% . While IPSOS have ANC on 65%, DA on 17-18% and EFF on 10-11%. (last time round it was ANC 61%, DA 22%, EFF 6%). So no-one has a friggin clue, essentially.

An EFF surge at the expense of the ANC would probably be taken as a bad sign for Ramaphosa, and would consequentially probably strengthen the Zuma-populist-nationalist wing in the party, who would point to the EFF winning that sort of voter (which would be, well, a little unfair as any ANC losses would definitely not be down to the absence of Zuma at the head of the party...)

Also worth watching the DA score. Maimane has come under a lot of criticism from the membership, especially when compared to his predecessor Zille. He is seen as having failed to reach out to new (black middle class) voters, and is off putting to a lot of the DA's vote as being a little bit too left wing (and too black...). Although in all fairness, he does have a hard time triangulating between the kind of rhetoric that would appear to the DA's existing constituencies and to the ones it needs to gain to ever stand a chance of winning power. All things considered, failing to progress on 2014 would be a bad result for the party, given how tarnished the ANC is. And the "at least Zuma is gone" factor / Ramaphosa's relatively better reputation won't be an excuse.

Also watch out for the results in Gauteng. The IRR poll has ANC dropping to 45% there, so the DA might have hopes of being able to cobble together a coalition to govern the province. Gauteng is home to about a quarter of the population, and generates about 40% of South Africa's GDP - so would be a huge win in terms of establishing themselves as a potential party of government.

[Former President tack50]

What sort of coalition would the DA be able to form in Gauteng? I imagine DA-EFF is not viable at all, is it? I'd expect some sort of ANC minority?

[parochial boy]

What sort of coalition would the DA be able to form in Gauteng? I imagine DA-EFF is not viable at all, is it? I'd expect some sort of ANC minority?

Well Malema viscerally hates the ANC too - and there is a some history of DA-EFF collaboration at the municipal level (generally not formal coalitions, and happening less and less of the las couple of years, but opposition makes strange bedfellows I guess). So the DA might hope to cobble something together with the minor parties and then convince the EFF not bring them down - which is basically the current situation with Herman Mashaba in Johannesburg.

[PSOL]

Hopefully the NUMSA front does well in the face of Ramaphosa, even with historically bad minor party runs.

[Tintrlvr]

Will we get results tonight? What time do polls close?

[Keep Calm and ...]

Polls close in 30 minutes. I don't know when we see the first results.

elections.org.za

[parochial boy]

Will we get results tonight? What time do polls close?

Apparently first results expected to come in at 11pm SA time, but very little likely to come through before 3am and most results coming through around 11am.

So don't expect much this evening

[Double Carpet]

Yep counting in SA is normally pretty slow and it looks like counting is done at counting centres (as in UK) rather than at polling stations which is what most countries do.

[parochial boy]

And results, when they do come, should come here

https://www.elections.org.za/NPEDashboard/app/dashboard.html