Is New York Trending Repubican

[Redban]

I know I'm bumping an older topic, but it's one that interests me. The replies in this thread are quality.

First, I live in NYC. The state, already titanium Democrat, is unfortunately still trending Democrat:

1). Of the nearly 6 million registered voters, Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly 2-1 in the state. From 2016 - 2019, Republicans actually lost 18,000 registered voters while Democrats gained 274,000 voters.

2). The state Senate, where Republicans had control for the last decade, recently obtained a Democrat majority; and with several GOP senators retiring this year, that Dem majority is expected to increase. The Republicans were able to control the NY State Senate for a while by gerrymandering, and the Dems are going to redraw the districts after this year. Therefore, the GOP isn't regaining the Senate for at least 10 years. NY is now a permanent one-party state, like California.

3). The Democrat candidates have been getting blow-out wins in the gubernatorial, senate, and NYC mayoral elections. Both Schumer and Gillibrand have been getting 70% margins of victory in recent senate elections. Pataki in 2002 was the last Republican to win a state-wide election (or even put up a competitive performance). Rick Lazio in 2000 was the last time any NY Senate race was even remotely competitive (he lost to Hillary by 10%).

4). Some NY congressional house seats that were filled by a Republican have flipped Democrat.

So no ... I don't think New York is trending Democrat right now.
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As for future outlook, it's true that the state is experiencing changes. Upstate continues to lose people, and in the last 2-3 years, even downstate has been experiencing population loss (including NYC!).

The reason is that a ton of New York residents are leaving New York for Florida, Texas, & other states; and very few domestic residents in other states are moving in to New York ... this has been the case for a long time now actually. People didn't pay attention because New York, or basically just NYC, was able to cushion that population loss by attracting immigrants from abroad. That's why the census kept showing New York as a growing state. But recently, even international immigration has slowed significantly, bringing NYC's population down about 100k since 2016 (and the state's population down about 200k in this span).

The population loss, again, has apparently made the state more Democrat, not less. So the people who leave New York appear to be reliable Republican voters, and the people moving in (mostly foreign-born) are Democrats. If you want to think more positive, the population loss means New York will continue to lose congressional seats and electoral votes, so the inability to win New York gradually becomes less crippling nationally.

When Reagan won New York in 1980 & 1984, the framework was basically -

1). Lose NYC by a margin of about 65-35% or 60-40%.
2). Win Westchester, Nassau, and Suffolk by about 60-40%.
3). Get a 55-45% win upstate.

And even then, it was still a relatively narrow win.  And now? 

1). Republicans lose NYC by a massive 80-20% clip.
2). They lose Westchester, Nassau, & Suffolk by 60-40%.
3). In a good year, they can still win Upstate 50-55% (but remember, the population Upstate, is much smaller now than during Reagan's time).

The increased margin in NYC + the loss of Westchester and Long Island is the reason New York went from lean D (1992) to titanium D (today).

In future, Republicans have a better chance with New Jersey, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Delaware than with New York.