Is New York Trending Repubican

[Skill and Chance]

Yes, but some of it is a Trump homestate effect.  It could swing significantly to Trump in a close 2020 election if the Dem nominee doesn't also have an NY connection next time.

[Skill and Chance]

I think there are three areas: there's also Long Island.  Outside of Brooklyn, why would you consider Long Island (Nassau County and Suffolk County) to be part of greater New York?

Absolutely. There are really 3 areas:

Urban NYC (New York, Kings, Queens, Bronx): 7,706,403 people--84% Clinton, 16% Trump

Suburban NYC (Richmond, Nassau, Suffolk, Westchester, Rockland): 4,562,412 people--52% Clinton, 48% Trump

Upstate NY (The Rest): 7,109,287 people--52% Trump, 48% Clinton

NYC could maybe hit 90% Dem, but that would be hard. Upstate will continue trending R. It's the suburbs that will determine the trend, and there seems to be a split in trend between the Westchester area vs Staten/Long Islands.

This actually makes my point quite well.  If Upstate eventually goes 60%+ R, there aren't enough people left to flip in NYC to counter it. 

[Skill and Chance]

The way it happens for Republicans is Upstate voting like West Texas.  I could see that happening in 2040, but not much sooner.