Is New York Trending Repubican

[Redban]

I know I'm bumping an older topic, but it's one that interests me. The replies in this thread are quality.

First, I live in NYC. The state, already titanium Democrat, is unfortunately still trending Democrat:

1). Of the nearly 6 million registered voters, Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly 2-1 in the state. From 2016 - 2019, Republicans actually lost 18,000 registered voters while Democrats gained 274,000 voters.

2). The state Senate, where Republicans had control for the last decade, recently obtained a Democrat majority; and with several GOP senators retiring this year, that Dem majority is expected to increase. The Republicans were able to control the NY State Senate for a while by gerrymandering, and the Dems are going to redraw the districts after this year. Therefore, the GOP isn't regaining the Senate for at least 10 years. NY is now a permanent one-party state, like California.

3). The Democrat candidates have been getting blow-out wins in the gubernatorial, senate, and NYC mayoral elections. Both Schumer and Gillibrand have been getting 70% margins of victory in recent senate elections. Pataki in 2002 was the last Republican to win a state-wide election (or even put up a competitive performance). Rick Lazio in 2000 was the last time any NY Senate race was even remotely competitive (he lost to Hillary by 10%).

4). Some NY congressional house seats that were filled by a Republican have flipped Democrat.

So no ... I don't think New York is trending Democrat right now.
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As for future outlook, it's true that the state is experiencing changes. Upstate continues to lose people, and in the last 2-3 years, even downstate has been experiencing population loss (including NYC!).

The reason is that a ton of New York residents are leaving New York for Florida, Texas, & other states; and very few domestic residents in other states are moving in to New York ... this has been the case for a long time now actually. People didn't pay attention because New York, or basically just NYC, was able to cushion that population loss by attracting immigrants from abroad. That's why the census kept showing New York as a growing state. But recently, even international immigration has slowed significantly, bringing NYC's population down about 100k since 2016 (and the state's population down about 200k in this span).

The population loss, again, has apparently made the state more Democrat, not less. So the people who leave New York appear to be reliable Republican voters, and the people moving in (mostly foreign-born) are Democrats. If you want to think more positive, the population loss means New York will continue to lose congressional seats and electoral votes, so the inability to win New York gradually becomes less crippling nationally.

When Reagan won New York in 1980 & 1984, the framework was basically -

1). Lose NYC by a margin of about 65-35% or 60-40%.
2). Win Westchester, Nassau, and Suffolk by about 60-40%.
3). Get a 55-45% win upstate.

And even then, it was still a relatively narrow win.  And now? 

1). Republicans lose NYC by a massive 80-20% clip.
2). They lose Westchester, Nassau, & Suffolk by 60-40%.
3). In a good year, they can still win Upstate 50-55% (but remember, the population Upstate, is much smaller now than during Reagan's time).

The increased margin in NYC + the loss of Westchester and Long Island is the reason New York went from lean D (1992) to titanium D (today).

In future, Republicans have a better chance with New Jersey, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Delaware than with New York.

[clever but short]

I think there are three areas: there's also Long Island.  Outside of Brooklyn, why would you consider Long Island (Nassau County and Suffolk County) to be part of greater New York?

Absolutely. There are really 3 areas:

Urban NYC (New York, Kings, Queens, Bronx): 7,706,403 people--84% Clinton, 16% Trump

Suburban NYC (Richmond, Nassau, Suffolk, Westchester, Rockland): 4,562,412 people--52% Clinton, 48% Trump

Upstate NY (The Rest): 7,109,287 people--52% Trump, 48% Clinton

NYC could maybe hit 90% Dem, but that would be hard. Upstate will continue trending R. It's the suburbs that will determine the trend, and there seems to be a split in trend between the Westchester area vs Staten/Long Islands.

[brucejoel99]

No.

[Agonized-Statism]

So long as upstate is rusty, it doesn't look good for the GOP. Things get interesting if this pandemic causes mass migration out of NYC. It's a long shot, though.

[Skill and Chance]

The way it happens for Republicans is Upstate voting like West Texas.  I could see that happening in 2040, but not much sooner.

[morgankingsley]

Not enough to make a difference in 20, 24 or even 28

[King of Kensington]

NY will continue to be a Democratic bastion but if it is any consolation for those looking for a Republican trend:

1.  It is less Democratic than California now

2.  Nassau voted to the right of DuPage IL and Orange CA last time

[Non Swing Voter]

2020 will probably reverse all the inroads Republicans made in 2016 due to how uniquely awful the GOP has treated the state, including Trump, an ex-NYer. 

[Grassroots]

Yes. And if my prediction that northern cities are going to start swinging R this decade holds true, we might see it show in NY.

[King of Kensington]

Who did better upstate, John Kerry or Hillary Clinton?

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Who did better upstate, John Kerry or Hillary Clinton?

Kerry won Upstate NY in 2004. I assume Hillary lost it. Whoever wins Upstate NY, will also win Northern New England and the Rust Belt like Kerry in 2004, minus OH.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Who did better upstate, John Kerry or Hillary Clinton?

Kerry won Upstate NY in 2004. I assume Hillary lost it. Whoever wins Upstate NY, will also win Northern New England and the Rust Belt like Kerry in 2004, minus OH.

Defining Upstate as everything North of NYC, I think she only won it by a hair iirc.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Who did better upstate, John Kerry or Hillary Clinton?

Kerry won Upstate NY in 2004. I assume Hillary lost it. Whoever wins Upstate NY, will also win Northern New England and the Rust Belt like Kerry in 2004, minus OH.

Defining Upstate as everything North of NYC, I think she only won it by a hair iirc.

Westchester isn't upstate.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Who did better upstate, John Kerry or Hillary Clinton?

Kerry won Upstate NY in 2004. I assume Hillary lost it. Whoever wins Upstate NY, will also win Northern New England and the Rust Belt like Kerry in 2004, minus OH.

Defining Upstate as everything North of NYC, I think she only won it by a hair iirc.

Westchester isn't upstate.

There exists more than one definition of Upstate NY. A very simple division one might make is: NYC, LI, and Upstate. It'd be a definition.
In any case, I took this into account by defining the specific nature of the area I had in mind. I also implicitly was suggesting that Hillary's results were not really on par with Obama's - if you are barely winning Upstate as defined as including Westchester, you are definitely losing Upstate defined as being without it.

[King of Kensington]

Exclude Westchester and Rockland.

[Jopow]

Put it this way. Even with both nominees being from New York, without NYC, Trump would've lost the state by just 4000 votes. It's at least worth keeping an eye on, even if NYC statehood is a pipedream.

My thoughts exactly. It is possible, considering upstate has 11 million people and the city has 8 million, but it will definetely take a lot of red trends. I do think though that New York will go for the Democrats by less than 20% (22% in 2016).