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  Talk Elections
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  Election Archive
  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  TN-Emerson Poll: Bredesen+6
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Author Topic: TN-Emerson Poll: Bredesen+6  (Read 3834 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: July 16, 2018, 05:59:20 am »

Phil Bredesen (D) 43%
Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R) 37%

https://www.clnsmedia.com/podcasts/statewide-tennessee-poll-us-senate-phil-bredesen-d-v-marsha-blackburn-gubernatorial-trump-approval-ratings-podcast/
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Cory Booker
olawakandi
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« Reply #1 on: July 16, 2018, 06:00:44 am »

Tilt D
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #2 on: July 16, 2018, 06:01:49 am »

Nice.

Could still be a close race within 5% in either direction.

But at least Blackburn is not up by 14 like SurveyJunkey said.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #3 on: July 16, 2018, 06:05:28 am »

Bredesen getting 20% of Republicans and wins Indies by 17 points.

And among very likely voters: 46-39 Bredesen
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #4 on: July 16, 2018, 06:14:02 am »

Trump approval:

52-39 approve

Pot legalisation:

45-41 in favour

Full poll results will be out at 9am Eastern.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
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« Reply #5 on: July 16, 2018, 06:14:57 am »

I still wish that I was on ol' Rocky Top down in the Bredesen hills!
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#Klobmentum
superbudgie1582
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« Reply #6 on: July 16, 2018, 06:30:52 am »

I'm not to keen on Emersons new methodology but its good to see them trying to keep up. In 2016, Emersons was landline only, now they're Landline + Surveymonkey.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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« Reply #7 on: July 16, 2018, 06:39:49 am »

"But Bredesen will lose by 14 because a D- rated pollster said so!" - IceSpear
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KingSweden
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« Reply #8 on: July 16, 2018, 08:05:13 am »

Emerson is meh. Still, encouraging result even if it shouldnít be gospel
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #9 on: July 16, 2018, 08:34:23 am »

Here's a non-podcast link: https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-tn-7.16_PR.pdf
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #10 on: July 16, 2018, 09:39:04 am »

New Poll: Tennessee Senator by Emerson College on 2018-07-14

Summary: D: 46%, R: 39%, U: 12%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Zaybay
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« Reply #11 on: July 16, 2018, 09:43:43 am »

The problem with Emerson is they never push undecideds. We have no idea if the undecideds here are pro-R and dislike Blackburn, or D-leaning/Indie who are a bit more liberal than Bredesen.

Also, I cant believe how weak Blackburn has been, shes just so hated, by literally everyone.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #12 on: July 16, 2018, 09:49:42 am »

The problem with Emerson is they never push undecideds. We have no idea if the undecideds here are pro-R and dislike Blackburn, or D-leaning/Indie who are a bit more liberal than Bredesen.

Also, I cant believe how weak Blackburn has been, shes just so hated, by literally everyone.

When you compare the results for RV and LV though, the Bredesen-margin increases by 1% and the undecideds go down.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #13 on: July 16, 2018, 09:56:48 am »

The problem with Emerson is they never push undecideds. We have no idea if the undecideds here are pro-R and dislike Blackburn, or D-leaning/Indie who are a bit more liberal than Bredesen.

Also, I cant believe how weak Blackburn has been, shes just so hated, by literally everyone.

When you compare the results for RV and LV though, the Bredesen-margin increases by 1% and the undecideds go down.
Interesting, didnt look at those numbers. Thats very good for the Ds in TN, LV should be where Blackburn gets her margin, but if she fails at even that, the race should be tilt D.

Also, looking at the campaigns both are running, I find it telling that Blackburn's ads have been not about herself, but how Bredesen is a party hack. Thats a terrible line to use, especially if your the one who suffers from name rec. Funny enough, Rick Scott is doing the same thing....
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jrk26
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« Reply #14 on: July 16, 2018, 10:05:07 am »

Bredesen getting 20% of Republicans and wins Indies by 17 points.

And among very likely voters: 46-39 Bredesen

Excellent numbers.  It's possible for a D to win in a really non-atlas red state, it just takes winning a lot of crossover votes (easier said than done in this climate).  I remember Tom Daschle in South Dakota winning 56% of independents and 17% of Republicans in 2004, but it wasn't enough; he lost by 1.2%.

This does seem like an awful lot of undecideds though.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #15 on: July 16, 2018, 10:06:43 am »

Also, I cant believe how weak Blackburn has been, shes just so hated, by literally everyone.

I think her primary percentage might be telling.  Sheís running against a literal nobody and should easily get like 75% or something.  If she wins by an embarrassingly close margin like 60-40 or something like that then I donít see how she wins the general.

Usually I donít think primary performance is indicative but this may be a case where it is
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TarHeelDem
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« Reply #16 on: July 16, 2018, 10:12:35 am »

NUT

Keeping this race at Tilt D for now.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #17 on: July 16, 2018, 10:22:18 am »

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#Klobmentum
superbudgie1582
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« Reply #18 on: July 16, 2018, 10:25:55 am »



Why does 538 rate them at B+?
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KingSweden
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« Reply #19 on: July 16, 2018, 10:26:15 am »



Unsurprising, itís Emerson
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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« Reply #20 on: July 16, 2018, 10:30:15 am »

Remember when Emerson had only 17% of the electorate being black in Alabama of all places?
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TarHeelDem
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« Reply #21 on: July 16, 2018, 11:30:39 am »

#CantShedTheBred!!
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Wisconsin SC Race 2019
hofoid
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« Reply #22 on: July 16, 2018, 12:38:28 pm »

Yeah, no. Too many educated ones polled. This is clearly Lean R.
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Georgia Swing
mollybecky
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« Reply #23 on: July 16, 2018, 02:25:22 pm »
« Edited: July 16, 2018, 02:39:51 pm by North Fulton Democrat »

The coalition of Democrats plus independents plus moderate Republicans (and there remain several in Tennessee) that Bredesen is cobbling may be bearing fruit.    The tariff issue is affecting the whiskey distilleries and it appears to be hurting Blackburn here.
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Lean Branson
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« Reply #24 on: July 16, 2018, 02:34:22 pm »

Yeah, no. Too many educated ones polled. This is clearly Lean R.

The fact that even Hysterical Hofoid can only squeeze a Lean R out of a Senate race in Tennessee says a lot about how things are going for Republicans right now
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