Ukrainian presidential election, 31.03.2019

[Karpatsky]

We are now six months out from the Ukrainian presidential election, which will likely decide to what extent the country can achieve real and lasting reform going forwards. President Poroshenko's formerly strong lead has evaporated in the past months, with those being most likely to make it to the second round currently being Yulia Tymoshenko of Fatherland Party, Anatoliy Hrytsenko of Civic Position, and Yuri Boyko of Opposition Bloc. Barring a miracle, my preferred candidate (see sig) will almost certainly not even be relevant.

I typically characterize Tymoshenko as 'Ukraine's Hillary Clinton' to Americans, in that she, like Clinton, has been around forever, is quite polarizing, and has an air of corruption around her.

I don't know that much about Hrytsenko - his rise has been a relatively recent phenomenon. He was Minister of Defense under President Yushchenko, and has been accused of being responsible for the sad state of the Ukrainian army leading up to the Russian invasion.

Boyko was Minister of Energy under President Yanukovych, and his party is built off the ruins of Party of Regions after Yanukovych fled to Russia. I think he has almost no chance of actually winning, as most people I know would vote for literally anyone else if he makes it to the second round.

I am not eligible to vote, though my relatives are primarily Tymoshenko supporters, and of these three she is probably my first choice. I hope though that there is some other disruption between now and the election, as these are not inspiring choices for the future of Ukraine.

Two 'wild cards' which have the potential to shake things up a bit are Svyatoslav Vakarchuk and Vladimir Zelenski - respectively, a popular musician and an actor in a show in which an ordinary schoolteacher suddenly becomes President. They are both potentially within reach of making a runoff. While I am not in favor of political turnover for its own sake, Ukraine I think could use a leader who is not of the old oligarch class - which these three and Poroshenko essentially all are.

[Karpatsky]

So a lot of the Ukrainian parliament are liberals and conservatives, is there a Labor party or movement? What do unions go for in this environment?

'Labor' I would say is unfortunately caught up in Soviet nostalgia a bit - I would say the most left-wing party economically is OB. But I doubt it will be that important a political divide for this election.

Someone who represents the nationalist right, is committed to destroying the power of the oligarchs, and isn't bought and paid for.

None of the above. Oleh Tyahnybok

... but this one is too extreme for me. Not going to support someone from Svoboda.

I guess you want Lyashko, so I suppose we can be happy you won't be voting.

[Karpatsky]

Opinion poll from "Rating Group"
All participants:

Timoshenko 11.1%
Gritsenko 6.7%
Boyko 6.4%
Lyashko 5.9%
Poroshenko 5.3%

Likely voters without undecides:

Timoshenko 17.7%
Gritsenko 10.7%
Boyko 8.9%
Lyashko 8.5%
Poroshenko 8.3%

>poroshenko below lyashko

ouch

[Karpatsky]

It seems the last 3 Ukraine Presidents all finished their term with horrible approval ratings.   Yushchenko ran in 2010 and finished in the low single digits.  Yanukovych was overthrown in a coup but would have for sure lost by a mile if he ran for re-election.  It seems now Poroshenko is meeting the same fate.  I guess the voter expectations are just way beyond what the current Ukraine state is capable of generating.   

Not a coup, but beyond that you may be right. The fundamental problem IMO is that wealth and media control is so concentrated in the oligarch class that it is difficult to pass real reforms - this is Poroshenko's big problem, at the end of the day he is still an oligarch and had that conflict of interest the whole way through.

[Karpatsky]

Does anyone know why this thread was moved out of Int'l Politics? Does it somehow not qualify?

Anyways, the latest Razumkov polls has Tymoshenko with a commanding lead of 17.8%, with Hrytsenko being second with 9.7%. In this case there would be a whopping six candidates within a few points of making the second round.  Interestingly, this is the first poll in a while to include both Vakarchuk & Zelenski, and they both retain relatively high levels of support. I would think in reality, if either of them does end up running, only one will, and they will draw on a similar pool of voters.

Interesting side not from the poll: a large plurality (41%) support electoral reform to return to an open list proportional system before the next parliamentary election (which will be sometime in fall). Currently it is a mixed system, like Germany. More respondents would prefer a FPP system (16.5%) to the current system (15%), which says something.

[Karpatsky]

Does anyone know why this thread was moved out of Int'l Politics? Does it somehow not qualify?

Because there was another thread, I think, and this one's OP was basically "who would you vote for?", which is Individual Politics content.

Someone who represents the nationalist right, is committed to destroying the power of the oligarchs, and isn't bought and paid for.

None of the above. Oleh Tyahnybok

... but this one is too extreme for me. Not going to support someone from Svoboda.

I guess you want Lyashko, so I suppose we can be happy you won't be voting.

Still interested in learning more about him. Could you elaborate?

Currently it is a mixed system, like Germany. More respondents would prefer a FPP system (16.5%) to the current system (15%), which says something.

As far as I know it is not "like in Germany", because the Ukrainian system is not proportional: unlike in Germany, Ukraine does not have a mechanism with overhang and additional mandates to make sure the ultimate seat distribution is proportional. Therefore the Ukrainian system can be classified as MMM whereas the German system is MMP.

Yeah, it looks like my thread was merged with this one, and they were both put under Indiv Pol rather than Intl Pol. I really think it should be moved back - the current arrangement marginalizes it for the interested.

Lyashko is a right-wing nationalist for people who are not lite-fascist enough to unironically vote for Svoboda. He checks all your boxes, the problem being that the EU is popular enough in Ukraine that anyone who is 'nationalist right' by your standards (which I read as meaning Euroskeptic) is going to be a bit out there. The main issue to set him apart is nuclear rearmament. To be honest, it was probably unfair for me to say that based on your short statement - had you omitted the word 'nationalist', I would have recommended Sadovyi, who is a center-right reformist who might have been a serious threat to the oligarch establishment had Poroshenko not spent a lot of time over the past years smearing him over a non-issue garbage scandal.

I think you are right - I did not know enough about the particulars of the arrangement, what I meant is that they have both proportional and district election.