Ukrainian presidential election, 31.03.2019
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  Ukrainian presidential election, 31.03.2019
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Poll
Question: Who do you support for the Ukrainian Presidency?
#1
Petro Poroshenko (BPP)
 
#2
Yulia Tymoshenko (BA)
 
#3
Anatoliy Hrytsenko (GP)
 
#4
Yuri Boyko (OB)
 
#5
Andrii Sadovyi (SP)
 
#6
Oleg Lyashko (RP)
 
#7
Vadim Rabynovych (ZZ)
 
#8
Svyatoslav Vakarchuk (IND)
 
#9
Vladimir Zelenski (SN)
 
#10
Other (please specify)
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 19

Author Topic: Ukrainian presidential election, 31.03.2019  (Read 3860 times)
Karpatsky
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« Reply #25 on: August 08, 2018, 08:47:54 AM »

Opinion poll from "Rating Group"
All participants:

Timoshenko 11.1%
Gritsenko 6.7%
Boyko 6.4%
Lyashko 5.9%
Poroshenko 5.3%

Likely voters without undecides:

Timoshenko 17.7%
Gritsenko 10.7%
Boyko 8.9%
Lyashko 8.5%
Poroshenko 8.3%


>poroshenko below lyashko

ouch
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kelestian
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« Reply #26 on: August 08, 2018, 09:45:27 AM »

Opinion poll from "Rating Group"
All participants:

Timoshenko 11.1%
Gritsenko 6.7%
Boyko 6.4%
Lyashko 5.9%
Poroshenko 5.3%

Likely voters without undecides:

Timoshenko 17.7%
Gritsenko 10.7%
Boyko 8.9%
Lyashko 8.5%
Poroshenko 8.3%


>poroshenko below lyashko

ouch

Within the margin! I'm interested will he overperform Yushenko's 2010 result (5,75%) ?
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jaichind
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« Reply #27 on: August 08, 2018, 09:50:58 AM »

It seems the last 3 Ukraine Presidents all finished their term with horrible approval ratings.   Yushchenko ran in 2010 and finished in the low single digits.  Yanukovych was overthrown in a coup but would have for sure lost by a mile if he ran for re-election.  It seems now Poroshenko is meeting the same fate.  I guess the voter expectations are just way beyond what the current Ukraine state is capable of generating.   
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Karpatsky
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« Reply #28 on: August 08, 2018, 10:18:32 AM »

It seems the last 3 Ukraine Presidents all finished their term with horrible approval ratings.   Yushchenko ran in 2010 and finished in the low single digits.  Yanukovych was overthrown in a coup but would have for sure lost by a mile if he ran for re-election.  It seems now Poroshenko is meeting the same fate.  I guess the voter expectations are just way beyond what the current Ukraine state is capable of generating.   

Not a coup, but beyond that you may be right. The fundamental problem IMO is that wealth and media control is so concentrated in the oligarch class that it is difficult to pass real reforms - this is Poroshenko's big problem, at the end of the day he is still an oligarch and had that conflict of interest the whole way through.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #29 on: August 08, 2018, 10:37:14 AM »

I have been supporting Tymoshenko for more than a decade now.

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kelestian
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« Reply #30 on: August 08, 2018, 10:52:59 AM »

It seems the last 3 Ukraine Presidents all finished their term with horrible approval ratings.   Yushchenko ran in 2010 and finished in the low single digits.  Yanukovych was overthrown in a coup but would have for sure lost by a mile if he ran for re-election.  It seems now Poroshenko is meeting the same fate.  I guess the voter expectations are just way beyond what the current Ukraine state is capable of generating.    

I doubt about Yanukovich tho. He had about 20-30% in all opinion polls until his escaping. He would have lost 2015 presidential elections to opposition candidate (Clichko/Poroshenko), but he definitely would be in the second tour. His situation was different from Yuschenko's and Poroshenko's, as Yanukovish was non-alternative candidate from the East.
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jaichind
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« Reply #31 on: August 08, 2018, 10:56:01 AM »

It seems the last 3 Ukraine Presidents all finished their term with horrible approval ratings.   Yushchenko ran in 2010 and finished in the low single digits.  Yanukovych was overthrown in a coup but would have for sure lost by a mile if he ran for re-election.  It seems now Poroshenko is meeting the same fate.  I guess the voter expectations are just way beyond what the current Ukraine state is capable of generating.   

I doubt about Yanukovish tho. He had about 20-30% in all opinion polls until his escaping. He would have lost 2015 presidential elections to opposition candidate (Clichko/Poroshenko), but he definitely would be in the second tour. His situation was different from Yuschenko's and Poroshenko's, as Yanukovish was non-alternative candidate from the East.

I did recall he was polling OK in late 2013 but those polls were done before the 2014 crisis.  I suspect after the crisis started there is no way he could be polling that well so even if he survived the Euromaidan uprising he was for sure doomed in any re-election effort.  Most likely by a mile.
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jaichind
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« Reply #32 on: August 08, 2018, 10:57:31 AM »

For Ukraine I am usually pro-Putin/Russia.  So I guess OB's Yuri Boyko is my guy in this race.  He will not win of course. Putin took away the most reliable pro-Russia region in Ukraine, Crimea.  Yuri Boyko would need those votes to have a chance and clearly Crimea will not be voting in this election. 
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kelestian
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« Reply #33 on: August 08, 2018, 03:51:06 PM »
« Edited: August 10, 2018, 03:52:33 AM by kelestian »

It seems the last 3 Ukraine Presidents all finished their term with horrible approval ratings.   Yushchenko ran in 2010 and finished in the low single digits.  Yanukovych was overthrown in a coup but would have for sure lost by a mile if he ran for re-election.  It seems now Poroshenko is meeting the same fate.  I guess the voter expectations are just way beyond what the current Ukraine state is capable of generating.    

I doubt about Yanukovish tho. He had about 20-30% in all opinion polls until his escaping. He would have lost 2015 presidential elections to opposition candidate (Clichko/Poroshenko), but he definitely would be in the second tour. His situation was different from Yuschenko's and Poroshenko's, as Yanukovish was non-alternative candidate from the East.

I did recall he was polling OK in late 2013 but those polls were done before the 2014 crisis.  I suspect after the crisis started there is no way he could be polling that well so even if he survived the Euromaidan uprising he was for sure doomed in any re-election effort.  Most likely by a mile.

He even leaded in these polls (January 2014)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Ukrainian_presidential_election,_2014
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Karpatsky
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« Reply #34 on: September 13, 2018, 02:20:28 PM »

Does anyone know why this thread was moved out of Int'l Politics? Does it somehow not qualify?

Anyways, the latest Razumkov polls has Tymoshenko with a commanding lead of 17.8%, with Hrytsenko being second with 9.7%. In this case there would be a whopping six candidates within a few points of making the second round.  Interestingly, this is the first poll in a while to include both Vakarchuk & Zelenski, and they both retain relatively high levels of support. I would think in reality, if either of them does end up running, only one will, and they will draw on a similar pool of voters.

Interesting side not from the poll: a large plurality (41%) support electoral reform to return to an open list proportional system before the next parliamentary election (which will be sometime in fall). Currently it is a mixed system, like Germany. More respondents would prefer a FPP system (16.5%) to the current system (15%), which says something.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #35 on: September 15, 2018, 12:20:43 PM »
« Edited: September 15, 2018, 12:25:26 PM by DavidB. »

Does anyone know why this thread was moved out of Int'l Politics? Does it somehow not qualify?
Because there was another thread, I think, and this one's OP was basically "who would you vote for?", which is Individual Politics content.

Someone who represents the nationalist right, is committed to destroying the power of the oligarchs, and isn't bought and paid for.

None of the above. Oleh Tyahnybok
... but this one is too extreme for me. Not going to support someone from Svoboda.
I guess you want Lyashko, so I suppose we can be happy you won't be voting.
Still interested in learning more about him. Could you elaborate?

Currently it is a mixed system, like Germany. More respondents would prefer a FPP system (16.5%) to the current system (15%), which says something.
As far as I know it is not "like in Germany", because the Ukrainian system is not proportional: unlike in Germany, Ukraine does not have a mechanism with overhang and additional mandates to make sure the ultimate seat distribution is proportional. Therefore the Ukrainian system can be classified as MMM whereas the German system is MMP.
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HillGoose
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« Reply #36 on: September 15, 2018, 02:01:55 PM »

Which one is most pro-NATO?
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andjey
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« Reply #37 on: September 15, 2018, 02:10:40 PM »

New poll from KMIS
Timoshenko 12,9%
Poroshenko 8,4%
Vakarchuk 7,6%
Zelensky 7,5%
Boyko 7,1%
Lyashko 5,2%
Rabinovich 4,3%
Shevchenko 2,2%
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andjey
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« Reply #38 on: September 15, 2018, 02:12:26 PM »

Tymoshenko, Tyahnybok, Lyasko
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Karpatsky
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« Reply #39 on: September 15, 2018, 02:29:41 PM »

Does anyone know why this thread was moved out of Int'l Politics? Does it somehow not qualify?
Because there was another thread, I think, and this one's OP was basically "who would you vote for?", which is Individual Politics content.

Someone who represents the nationalist right, is committed to destroying the power of the oligarchs, and isn't bought and paid for.

None of the above. Oleh Tyahnybok
... but this one is too extreme for me. Not going to support someone from Svoboda.
I guess you want Lyashko, so I suppose we can be happy you won't be voting.
Still interested in learning more about him. Could you elaborate?

Currently it is a mixed system, like Germany. More respondents would prefer a FPP system (16.5%) to the current system (15%), which says something.
As far as I know it is not "like in Germany", because the Ukrainian system is not proportional: unlike in Germany, Ukraine does not have a mechanism with overhang and additional mandates to make sure the ultimate seat distribution is proportional. Therefore the Ukrainian system can be classified as MMM whereas the German system is MMP.

Yeah, it looks like my thread was merged with this one, and they were both put under Indiv Pol rather than Intl Pol. I really think it should be moved back - the current arrangement marginalizes it for the interested.

Lyashko is a right-wing nationalist for people who are not lite-fascist enough to unironically vote for Svoboda. He checks all your boxes, the problem being that the EU is popular enough in Ukraine that anyone who is 'nationalist right' by your standards (which I read as meaning Euroskeptic) is going to be a bit out there. The main issue to set him apart is nuclear rearmament. To be honest, it was probably unfair for me to say that based on your short statement - had you omitted the word 'nationalist', I would have recommended Sadovyi, who is a center-right reformist who might have been a serious threat to the oligarch establishment had Poroshenko not spent a lot of time over the past years smearing him over a non-issue garbage scandal.

I think you are right - I did not know enough about the particulars of the arrangement, what I meant is that they have both proportional and district election.
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