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  Talk Elections
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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  TN-PPP (D): Bredesen+3
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Author Topic: TN-PPP (D): Bredesen+3  (Read 2692 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: July 13, 2018, 10:11:40 am »

July 10-11, 583 likely voters:

44% Bredesen (D)
41% Blackburn (R)
15% Undecided

Bredesen: 42-37 favourable
Blackburn: 33-46 unfavourable

https://eu.tennessean.com/story/news/politics/tn-elections/2018/07/13/democratic-aligned-pac-poll-phil-bredesen-marsha-blackburn-tennessee-senate-race/781031002
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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« Reply #1 on: July 13, 2018, 10:12:27 am »

But SurveyMonkey told me this race is Blackburn by 14!
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KingSweden
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« Reply #2 on: July 13, 2018, 10:12:34 am »

Correct me if wrong - slightly down from PPP’s last poll here, yeah?
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Lean Branson
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« Reply #3 on: July 13, 2018, 10:13:45 am »

Those Blackburn unfavorables, hrm.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #4 on: July 13, 2018, 10:14:45 am »

Correct me if wrong - slightly down from PPP’s last poll here, yeah?

PPP's last poll was 46-43 Bredesen, so the exact same margin with more undecideds which is pretty strange. Normally there's a decline in undecideds the closer you are to e-day.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #5 on: July 13, 2018, 10:15:45 am »

Correct me if wrong - slightly down from PPP’s last poll here, yeah?

According to Wikipedia, the last PPP poll from late April/early May was also Bredesen+3 (but 46-43).
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The Saint
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« Reply #6 on: July 13, 2018, 10:19:16 am »

It is a D internal, but nevertheless, if there is going to be a surprise result (whether an unexpected victory or an extremely close race ending in the way everyone expected), this will be it.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #7 on: July 13, 2018, 10:24:29 am »

New Poll: Tennessee Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2018-07-11

Summary: D: 44%, R: 41%, U: 15%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #8 on: July 13, 2018, 10:47:16 am »

^Hmm

Not for now.

I'm only focusing on states which have no polls entered so far. The polls will only start getting interesting and meanigful in early October anyway.

And because there are no more elections in Austria this year, I will have some time to follow the US-midterms more closely starting in September or October. I can enter some polls then.

And why didn’t you add the Montana poll to the database? Very selective!
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #9 on: July 13, 2018, 10:53:43 am »

^Hmm

Not for now.

I'm only focusing on states which have no polls entered so far. The polls will only start getting interesting and meanigful in early October anyway.

And because there are no more elections in Austria this year, I will have some time to follow the US-midterms more closely starting in September or October. I can enter some polls then.

And why didn’t you add the Montana poll to the database? Very selective!

Because I'm not adding every poll that comes out.

Someone else can do it as well.

Besides, I was removed as moderator for crappy reasons, so you can be happy when I'm even adding a few polls here and then ...
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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #10 on: July 13, 2018, 11:13:55 am »

Seems like this race is still where's it been for awhile - a toss-up if you're just looking at the polling, but Lean R if you take into account how heavily R the state is.  Hopefully we can get polls with fewer undecideds as we get closer to the election.
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DTC
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« Reply #11 on: July 13, 2018, 11:22:34 am »

Both of the favorable numbers are way lower than I expected.

Why do people hate Blackburn so much in TN?
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KingSweden
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« Reply #12 on: July 13, 2018, 11:26:15 am »

Both of the favorable numbers are way lower than I expected.

Why do people hate Blackburn so much in TN?

She’s the worst kind of preening hack politician, and it shows. And she’s spent the equivalent of a used car to get her favorables up
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MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
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« Reply #13 on: July 13, 2018, 11:39:03 am »

Great news😀
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #14 on: July 13, 2018, 11:44:02 am »

I still wish that I was on old rock top
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Xing
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« Reply #15 on: July 13, 2018, 12:06:36 pm »

My guess is still that Republicans will come home for Blackburn, but if Democrats should be worried about FL, Republicans should be worried about this race.
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Devils30
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« Reply #16 on: July 13, 2018, 01:52:46 pm »

FL has had almost zero high quality polling. The one good poll by NBC had Nelson up 4
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Wisconsin SC Race 2019
hofoid
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« Reply #17 on: July 13, 2018, 02:01:42 pm »

100% not happening. All the right-leaning independents will come home for Blackburn (#NeverTrump-style). A 3-pt. margin isn't enough to overcome that. Plus, this is a Dem internal. Straight to the trash, baby.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #18 on: July 13, 2018, 02:07:40 pm »

I still wish that I was on old rock top

Damnit now that song will be in my head the rest of the day
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Ebsy
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« Reply #19 on: July 13, 2018, 02:26:13 pm »

PPP's commissioned polls for campaigns have always been just as accurate as their public release numbers, one of the few firms that can boast this.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #20 on: July 13, 2018, 02:28:44 pm »

100% not happening. All the right-leaning independents will come home for Blackburn (#NeverTrump-style). A 3-pt. margin isn't enough to overcome that. Plus, this is a Dem internal. Straight to the trash, baby.
King Lear, is that you?
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Republicans for Biden
Zyzz
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« Reply #21 on: July 13, 2018, 02:28:51 pm »

Bold prediction: Democrats pick up 4 seats AZ,NV,TX and TN while losing none. Democrats win the Senate 53-47. In waves the vast majority of toss up seats fall one way. Look at 2006, 2008 and especially 2014. I remember 2006 well, Democrats were at a worse deficit then they only had 45 seats. People said Democrats had no chance to win the Senate, how could they possible knock off a titan like George Allen in solid Republican Virginia? The wave brought in a lot of surprise victories.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #22 on: July 13, 2018, 02:41:02 pm »

Bold prediction: Democrats pick up 4 seats AZ,NV,TX and TN while losing none. Democrats win the Senate 53-47. In waves the vast majority of toss up seats fall one way. Look at 2006, 2008 and especially 2014. I remember 2006 well, Democrats were at a worse deficit then they only had 45 seats. People said Democrats had no chance to win the Senate, how could they possible knock off a titan like George Allen in solid Republican Virginia? The wave brought in a lot of surprise victories.


A yes. Unbeatable Titan George Allen, at one time the 2008 GOP frontrunner
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Scott🦋
Scott
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« Reply #23 on: July 13, 2018, 02:45:40 pm »

Lol.  If Bredesen wins this election while Nelson loses his, I think I'll drink cow jizz.
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Republicans for Biden
Zyzz
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« Reply #24 on: July 13, 2018, 02:48:53 pm »

Bold prediction: Democrats pick up 4 seats AZ,NV,TX and TN while losing none. Democrats win the Senate 53-47. In waves the vast majority of toss up seats fall one way. Look at 2006, 2008 and especially 2014. I remember 2006 well, Democrats were at a worse deficit then they only had 45 seats. People said Democrats had no chance to win the Senate, how could they possible knock off a titan like George Allen in solid Republican Virginia? The wave brought in a lot of surprise victories.


A yes. Unbeatable Titan George Allen, at one time the 2008 GOP frontrunner

How fast things change.
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