Counties with "strange" electoral histories carried by Hillary Clinton in 2016

[Calthrina950]

What even counts as 'strange'

For instance non-Southern, non-Arizonian counties that voted for Goldwater.
Or Appalachian counties that voted for Obama once.

One of my favorite examples of this is Teton County, Wyoming. Teton County went for Goldwater in 1964 by a narrow margin, but in 2016, voted for Clinton by over 20% and was her only county in the state. Teton County flipped to the Democrats, beginning in 2004 with John Kerry, and has become more Democratic over time. Conversely, Sweetwater County, which was Lyndon Johnson's best county in that state in 1964, went to Trump with more than 60% in 2016.

[Calthrina950]

Washtenaw, MI went from Nixon 1968 to McGovern to Ford to Carter 1980. From 1988 on, it has voted Democratic.

Jackson County, Illinois is distinctly similar to Washtenaw County in its history.

It was highly Democratic in the Third Party system, Republican until LBJ, then shifted from Nixon to McGovern in 1972, and has been Democratic since 1988.

The two are amongst just five counties that voted for Landon in 1936 and McGovern in 1972. However, with its location, Jackson County did swing substantially to Trump with Hilary winning only a plurality, so it may be that the Democrats cannot hold it despite its college characteristics.

Jackson County, interestingly enough, was the only county in Illinois that McGovern won. 1972 is the last time that Cook County voted Republican, and Nixon of course won every other county in the state besides Jackson. It kept Illinois from being an all-Republican sweep.

[Calthrina950]

What even counts as 'strange'

For instance non-Southern, non-Arizonian counties that voted for Goldwater.
Or Appalachian counties that voted for Obama once.

One of my favorite examples of this is Teton County, Wyoming. Teton County went for Goldwater in 1964 by a narrow margin, but in 2016, voted for Clinton by over 20% and was her only county in the state. Teton County flipped to the Democrats, beginning in 2004 with John Kerry, and has become more Democratic over time. Conversely, Sweetwater County, which was Lyndon Johnson's best county in that state in 1964, went to Trump with more than 60% in 2016.

Adding to this, Teton County had one of the strongest anti-Bush swings in 2004. In 2000 (the last election in which it voted Republican), Bush won it 52-39% against Al Gore, with Ralph Nader taking 7% of the vote. Bush carried it by 13% that year. Four years later, John Kerry won it 53-45%, carrying it by 8%. Kerry clearly picked up Nader's vote, but he also won over a substantial number of Bush voters. I'm assuming that these were "country club" Republicans of the sort that were already beginning to trend against the Party, even before the arrival of Trump on the scene. Teton County is known for its wealthy, well-educated population, so this would make sense.

[Calthrina950]

Lucas County, Ohio, where Toledo is located, is an urban industrial county that voted McGovern in 1972 and Reagan in 1980.
Precisely: Humphrey by 12% - McGovern by 1% - Carter by 15% - Reagan by 0.7% - Reagan by 1.5% (then Dukakis by 8% and then only D slam dunks)

The 1972 results in Ohio are interesting. In addition to Lucas County, Athens County also voted for McGovern by an extremely narrow margin-he won it by 1.22%. To my knowledge, McGovern was the first losing Democrat ever to carry Athens County, which was once a Republican stronghold. Athens County, prior to 1972, had only voted Democratic three times since the formation of the Republican Party in 1854-in 1936 and 1940 for Franklin D. Roosevelt, and in 1964 for Lyndon B. Johnson. Johnson had the best performance of any Democrat there before John Kerry in 2004. McGovern did very well in college towns that year, and I've seen articles stating that he tied Nixon among voters aged 18-21. Athens County was one of the few counties (along with Jackson County, Illinois and Pitkin County, Colorado) to shift from Nixon in 1968 to McGovern in 1972.

Conversely, 1972 remains the last time Mahoning and Cuyahoga Counties have voted Republican-Nixon won both with pluralities, and it was the last time Trumbull County voted Republican before 2016, as well as the last time before 2012 that Belmont, Jefferson, and Monroe Counties did so. Ohio as a whole was slightly more Democratic than the national average in 1972-one of only a few occasions where this has happened in the past century (with 1916, 1964, and 2004 being the others).

[Calthrina950]

Washtenaw, MI went from Nixon 1968 to McGovern to Ford to Carter 1980. From 1988 on, it has voted Democratic.

Pitkin County, CO voted Nixon-McGovern-Ford-Reagan, and has also voted Democratic since 1988. It and Washtenaw are the only counties to flip in the opposite direction of the national swing more than once since 1968.

Pitkin County's shift from 1968 to 1972 was exceptional. Nixon won it 56.2-36.0% in 1968, but in 1972, McGovern carried it 54.2-44.2%, although Colorado as a whole went to Nixon with 63% of the vote, and he improved there compared to 1968. It's similar to Denver County's shift against Reagan in 1984, although Reagan improved in Colorado by several points compared to 1980 and got a similar share of the statewide vote as Nixon. And in 1976, Gerald Ford won Pitkin County 53.6-39.8%. Pitkin County's voters certainly seemed to favor more "elitist" candidates during that time.

[Calthrina950]

Lucas County, Ohio, where Toledo is located, is an urban industrial county that voted McGovern in 1972 and Reagan in 1980.
Precisely: Humphrey by 12% - McGovern by 1% - Carter by 15% - Reagan by 0.7% - Reagan by 1.5% (then Dukakis by 8% and then only D slam dunks)

The 1972 results in Ohio are interesting. In addition to Lucas County, Athens County also voted for McGovern by an extremely narrow margin-he won it by 1.22%. To my knowledge, McGovern was the first losing Democrat ever to carry Athens County, which was once a Republican stronghold. Athens County, prior to 1972, had only voted Democratic three times since the formation of the Republican Party in 1854-in 1936 and 1940 for Franklin D. Roosevelt, and in 1964 for Lyndon B. Johnson. Johnson had the best performance of any Democrat there before John Kerry in 2004. McGovern did very well in college towns that year, and I've seen articles stating that he tied Nixon among voters aged 18-21. Athens County was one of the few counties (along with Jackson County, Illinois and Pitkin County, Colorado) to shift from Nixon in 1968 to McGovern in 1972.

Conversely, 1972 remains the last time Mahoning and Cuyahoga Counties have voted Republican-Nixon won both with pluralities, and it was the last time Trumbull County voted Republican before 2016, as well as the last time before 2012 that Belmont, Jefferson, and Monroe Counties did so. Ohio as a whole was slightly more Democratic than the national average in 1972-one of only a few occasions where this has happened in the past century (with 1916, 1964, and 2004 being the others).

This part is no longer true, as Trump won Mahoning County this year, becoming the first Republican since Nixon to carry it.

[Calthrina950]

Lucas County, Ohio, where Toledo is located, is an urban industrial county that voted McGovern in 1972 and Reagan in 1980.
Precisely: Humphrey by 12% - McGovern by 1% - Carter by 15% - Reagan by 0.7% - Reagan by 1.5% (then Dukakis by 8% and then only D slam dunks)

The 1972 results in Ohio are interesting. In addition to Lucas County, Athens County also voted for McGovern by an extremely narrow margin-he won it by 1.22%. To my knowledge, McGovern was the first losing Democrat ever to carry Athens County, which was once a Republican stronghold. Athens County, prior to 1972, had only voted Democratic three times since the formation of the Republican Party in 1854-in 1936 and 1940 for Franklin D. Roosevelt, and in 1964 for Lyndon B. Johnson. Johnson had the best performance of any Democrat there before John Kerry in 2004. McGovern did very well in college towns that year, and I've seen articles stating that he tied Nixon among voters aged 18-21. Athens County was one of the few counties (along with Jackson County, Illinois and Pitkin County, Colorado) to shift from Nixon in 1968 to McGovern in 1972.

Conversely, 1972 remains the last time Mahoning and Cuyahoga Counties have voted Republican-Nixon won both with pluralities, and it was the last time Trumbull County voted Republican before 2016, as well as the last time before 2012 that Belmont, Jefferson, and Monroe Counties did so. Ohio as a whole was slightly more Democratic than the national average in 1972-one of only a few occasions where this has happened in the past century (with 1916, 1964, and 2004 being the others).

This part is no longer true, as Trump won Mahoning County this year, becoming the first Republican since Nixon to carry it.

Mahoning County is interesting. Yes, it voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, but barely, after voting nearly 2-1 for Gore, Kerry, and Obama twice. Trump in 2020 won a majority for the first time since Eisenhower in 1956; the previous time a Republican won a majority was Hoover in his landslide 1932 loss, strangely enough.

Mahoning County, prior to the Roosevelt realignment of the 1930s, was a Republican stronghold, being part of the old "Western Reserve" settled by New Englanders from Connecticut and elsewhere, with strong Yankee roots and thus, a tradition of Republicanism. Pryor to 1936, the county only voted Democratic three times-in 1892 for Grover Cleveland and in 1912/1916 for Woodrow Wilson. Wilson, interestingly enough, was the only Democrat before Franklin Roosevelt, going back to the formation of the Republican Party, who obtained a majority in Mahoning County. He won it in 1912 because of the split between Taft and Theodore Roosevelt.