MO-Remington: Hawley +2
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  MO-Remington: Hawley +2
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Author Topic: MO-Remington: Hawley +2  (Read 2891 times)
Terry the Fat Shark
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« on: July 11, 2018, 03:34:36 AM »
« edited: July 11, 2018, 04:23:49 AM by Vice President dfwlibertylover »

https://themissouritimes.com/52223/new-polling-projects-hawley-with-slight-edge-over-mccaskill-right-to-work-failing-in-august/

Poll conducted by Remington Research on behalf of the Missouri Times, should note it appears they weighted it based on likely voter turnout in November.

Hawley - 48%
McCaskill - 46%
Undecided - 6%
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crazy jimmie
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« Reply #1 on: July 11, 2018, 04:35:33 AM »

Oh no Sad
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2 on: July 11, 2018, 06:33:37 AM »

Will 2018 be a Democratic wave year? If so, then Claire McCaskill holds on.
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JG
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« Reply #3 on: July 11, 2018, 06:51:55 AM »

This one will be a nailbiter until the end.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #4 on: July 11, 2018, 07:20:57 AM »

Not bad coming from a rightwing rag and Republican pollster.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #5 on: July 11, 2018, 07:22:12 AM »

Right-to-work-for-less failing 56-38? Nice!
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #6 on: July 11, 2018, 07:27:46 AM »

Remingtons last poll also showed Hawley +2 f.y.i


https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=286806.0

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AtorBoltox
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« Reply #7 on: July 11, 2018, 07:36:06 AM »

Assuming this poll is accurate, undecideds in a blue wave year will of course go to McCaskill. Lean D
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Lachi
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« Reply #8 on: July 11, 2018, 08:16:29 AM »

Remington, and no change from last one, so make of it as you would.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #9 on: July 11, 2018, 08:20:54 AM »

I know it's not gospel, but I take solace in knowing 538 rates Remington a "C".
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KingSweden
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« Reply #10 on: July 11, 2018, 08:32:50 AM »

Remington, and no change from last one, so make of it as you would.

I make of that a race that has been close all along and is still close
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Zaybay
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« Reply #11 on: July 11, 2018, 08:46:32 AM »

The fact that this pollster showed Hawley +2 last time shows that there is no momentum on ethier side, at least according to this pollster. If thats true, the undecideds will break D and Claire should win.
If even the most R friendly pollster is showing a lackluster result for Hawley, then this race is tilt/lean D.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #12 on: July 11, 2018, 08:59:09 AM »

wtf even is this race anymore
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #13 on: July 11, 2018, 09:04:27 AM »

She's running a 3rd term, it will be difficult for her to win
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Skye
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« Reply #14 on: July 11, 2018, 10:34:52 AM »

The fact that this pollster showed Hawley +2 last time shows that there is no momentum on ethier side, at least according to this pollster. If thats true, the undecideds will break D and Claire should win.
If even the most R friendly pollster is showing a lackluster result for Hawley, then this race is tilt/lean D.

What? It's July. It's way too soon to come to that conclusion based on this poll only. Also, it's not like Remington is a top quality pollster either...
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Canis
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« Reply #15 on: July 11, 2018, 11:25:59 AM »

this is good actually Remington has consistently shown Hawley +4
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Free Bird
TheHawk
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« Reply #16 on: July 11, 2018, 01:15:25 PM »

The fact that this pollster showed Hawley +2 last time shows that there is no momentum on ethier side, at least according to this pollster. If thats true, the undecideds will break D and Claire should win.
If even the most R friendly pollster is showing a lackluster result for Hawley, then this race is tilt/lean D.

This race cannot be called anything but a tossup if the polling is this inconsistent.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #17 on: July 11, 2018, 01:25:19 PM »

The fact that this pollster showed Hawley +2 last time shows that there is no momentum on ethier side, at least according to this pollster. If thats true, the undecideds will break D and Claire should win.
If even the most R friendly pollster is showing a lackluster result for Hawley, then this race is tilt/lean D.

What? It's July. It's way too soon to come to that conclusion based on this poll only. Also, it's not like Remington is a top quality pollster either...
The fact that this pollster showed Hawley +2 last time shows that there is no momentum on ethier side, at least according to this pollster. If thats true, the undecideds will break D and Claire should win.
If even the most R friendly pollster is showing a lackluster result for Hawley, then this race is tilt/lean D.

This race cannot be called anything but a tossup if the polling is this inconsistent.
Remington is the only pollster that even has Hawley in the lead anymore. It even has an R on the wiki, showing this is a bit biased to Hawley, and even then, he has lost his +4 lead.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Missouri,_2018
Polling has had this race at tied, to Mccaskill +4, and events that we already know are going to transpire(Rising medical costs, the SC confirmation which has shown to moralize more D voters in polling, the tariffs, etc.) will tilt this race to Mccaskill. Waves develop near the end of a cycle because thats when the undecideds move towards the party. In 2010, and 2014, it was the rising cost of Obamacare that moved them over to the Rs in September and October. The R needs a lead to be able to withstand, which is why FL, ND, and IN are more vulnerable.

Funny enough, this was the race I was sure of that we would lose. I even thought we should just triage this. But Hawley turned out to be a terrible candidate to easy to attack, and the Missouri R party is still having a bit of turmoil. It will be interesting to see what her margin is, but Im pretty confident she will win.
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Doimper
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« Reply #18 on: July 11, 2018, 01:32:52 PM »


Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes
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Rhenna
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« Reply #19 on: July 11, 2018, 02:52:02 PM »

But I thought the Dem advantage was almost completely gone?!?!? Lean D.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #20 on: July 11, 2018, 03:01:13 PM »

Aren't these guys right biased?
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KingSweden
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« Reply #21 on: July 11, 2018, 03:02:25 PM »


Yes
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Zaybay
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« Reply #22 on: July 11, 2018, 03:06:03 PM »

Yep, which is why these guys have been one of the few pollsters to show a Hawley lead.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #23 on: July 11, 2018, 03:34:22 PM »

this is good actually Remington has consistently shown Hawley +4

Actually their last poll in April had McCaskill +4

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2018/polls.php?type=src&source_id=257
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Zaybay
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« Reply #24 on: July 11, 2018, 03:41:43 PM »

I have found no such poll on any website. Are you sure this poll even exists? No one on this forum posted about this, and Remington has no information on this.
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