2018 Zimbabwean general election thread

[jaichind]

https://zimelection.com/mpmap.html

has a map of results with 102 seats announced.  Hopefully after this wave of results they will update their map



2008 results in comparison

[jaichind]

With 152 out of 210 seats announced ZANU-PF now has majority at ZANU-PF 109 MDC 41 NPF 1 ZANU-PF rebel 1.

[jaichind]

Updated map

[jaichind]

With almost all seats reported it is
ZANU-PF 143 MDC 60 NPF 1 ZANU-PF rebel 1
which has ZANU-PF crossing 2/3 majority which means ZANU-PF can change the Constitution at will.  Even if Chamisa wins he will not be able to effectively govern unless a large bloc of ZANU-PF defects over to him.

[jaichind]

The election commission says that they need all 23 Prez candidates to sign off on the counting process before releasing results.  It seems the Prez election results are counted first and will released last.  I doubt this anything to do with rigging given the parliamentary results.  Meaning the parliamentary results implies a significant Mnangagwa victory so if ZANU-PF rigged the Prez results then they must have also rigged the parliamentary results.  But if that is the case the release of parliamentary results shows that 24 hours is enough time to rig the results so I do not see why that does not apply for Prez results.

[jaichind]

Latest map

[jaichind]

Protests Erupt in Zimbabwe After Ruling Party Wins Landslide

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-01/zimbabwe-ruling-party-wins-parliament-as-vote-integrity-doubted

It seems one protester died already

[kelestian]

Riots in the capital
https://imp-navigator.livejournal.com/747410.html

[jaichind]

Opposition groups are taking images of V11 results forms from each voting booth and consolidating them in

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTriDXmnDzRrA8mYmm6ZFb-97EkTITSMWwuuukDUOYhuaiPzEcgV_NaN0efyADZ2RYm_xA-kjw_eTFN/pubhtml?gid=195864949&single=true

It only covers around 6% of the voting booths and are mostly from pro-opposition strongholds.   Looking over them it seems there must be a lot of errors and mistakes but in case the number add up (total vote for Prez and Parliament seems similar) it seems clear that splintered opposition votes on the Parliamentary seats seems to be consolidating around Chamisa.  It also seems that Mnangagwa is running behind ZANU-PF all things equal. 

Of course this is only in opposition strongholds and it is not clear that the same pattern will hold in ZANU-PF areas.  Still I guess this gives Chamisa some hope he can force a second round.  Still seems unlikely but I guess is statistically possible.     

[jaichind]

If you look at https://zimelection.com/mpfullresults.html which has detailed results for 111 out of the 210 parliamentary seats the vote share in these 111 seats are

ZANU-PF  52.8%
MDC-A     33.4%
MDC-T       3.3%
PRC           1.5%  (ZANU-PF splinter)
NPF           1.1%  (pro-Mugabe ZANU-PF splinter)
Ind.           5.6%

Out of these 111 seats it is ZANU-PF 80 MDC-A 30 IND 1 when total results we have out of 210 seats it is ZANU-PF 144 MDC-A 61 NPF 1 IND 1.

Assuming these 111 are fairly representative (which it seems it is) then even if Chamisa consolidates the MDC-T vote behind him, gets a good chunk of the Independent vote (some of which are ZANU-PF rebels) and gets some vote splitting from ZANU-PF and other smaller parties the best he can reasonble hope for is to force Mnangagwa into the second round.  It is unlikely he can win outright where as there is chance that Mnangagwa might be able to pull it off although based on these numbers it seems very possible that Mnangagwa will be forced into the second round.  

I would say any rigging are most likely to figure out how to get Mnangagwa to win outright and avoid the second round versus trying to suppress an outright  Chamisa  win.

[jaichind]

With nine of Zimbabwe's 10 provinces declared, Mnangagwa has 53% of the vote and should cruise to victory on the first round.

[jaichind]

Final result

Mnangagwa   50.8%
Chamisa       44.3%

The others got a greater share of the vote than I would have expected. 

Mnangagwa  at 50.8% seems consistent with Parliamentary vote results taking into account that there are many ZANU-PF rebel parties plus some ZANU-PF rebels as part of the Indy vote PLUS some vote splitting by ZANU-PF Parliamentary voters for Chamisa who clearly got the MDC-A and MDC-T vote and some more on top of that.
 

[Lachi]

Lol, trying to make the results not look rigged by making it seem like a close outright win, are they?