AK: Harstad Research: Dunleavy leads by four Walker and Begich tied at 28 (user search)
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  AK: Harstad Research: Dunleavy leads by four Walker and Begich tied at 28 (search mode)
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Author Topic: AK: Harstad Research: Dunleavy leads by four Walker and Begich tied at 28  (Read 2296 times)
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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« on: July 10, 2018, 01:20:46 PM »

Democratic polling firm.
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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*****
Posts: 15,284
United States


« Reply #1 on: July 10, 2018, 05:21:05 PM »

Obviously a state Senator like Dunleavy doesn’t have nearly as much name recognition as Walker or Begich, so that probably also explains his underwhelming numbers. It’s also a state that is trending Democratic.
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MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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Posts: 15,284
United States


« Reply #2 on: July 10, 2018, 06:31:56 PM »

if that were the case then undecideds would be up and Begich and Walkers numbers would be far lower

I wouldn’t say that 12% is a small percentage of undecideds, especially if they lean Republican... but that’s kind of beside the point. Citing this poll as evidence for Dunleavy being a terrible candidate makes about as much sense as referring to Steve Pearce's internal polls in which he was "only" losing by 2 and 4 points, respectively, to prove that Lujan Grisham is a "terrible" candidate (which many people here actually did). I’m not saying that Dunleavy is a particularly good recruit, but the fact that he’s "only" led by 4-8 points in all three Democratic-leaning polls so far doesn’t make him a joke candidate. I personally think this race is a Tossup, perhaps with a slight R tilt. AK polls were pretty accurate in 2014, so it would be nice to get a non-internal poll here for once.
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