SurveyMonkey senate poll (FL, IN, ND, NV, AZ, TN, WV, MT, and more): R+1

[GeorgiaModerate]

And now for your regularly scheduled reminder that SurveyMonkey missed multiple races by over 20 points in 2016: SurveyMonkey missed multiple races by over 20 points in 2016.

nailed Indiana though

Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn now and then.

[IceSpear]

My whole right wing world has been taken in by these Survey Monkey polls.  That starts with Rush.
I hope the candidates are smarter.

I don't see why. Gaining a single seat with a map this ridiculously stacked isn't something to brag about.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

My whole right wing world has been taken in by these Survey Monkey polls.  That starts with Rush.
I hope the candidates are smarter.

I don't see why. Gaining a single seat with a map this ridiculously stacked isn't something to brag about.

Yeah... I'm still expecting R's to gain 1 Senate seat overall.

But this pollster is flaming dogpoop.

[MT Treasurer]

Gaining only one seat would not only be embarrassing because of the map but also essentially guarantee a Democratic takeover of the Senate in either 2020 or 2022, so obviously it wouldn’t be something to brag about, even with lowered expectations and all of that.

[UWS]

Gaining only one seat would not only be embarrassing because of the map but also essentially guarantee a Democratic takeover of the Senate in either 2020 or 2022, so obviously it wouldn’t be something to brag about, even with lowered expectations and all of that.

Most likely in 2020.

[IceSpear]

Gaining only one seat would not only be embarrassing because of the map but also essentially guarantee a Democratic takeover of the Senate in either 2020 or 2022, so obviously it wouldn’t be something to brag about, even with lowered expectations and all of that.

Dems narrowly beating Trump, only netting a seat or two, then 2022 becoming a Republican wave doesn't really sound like a farfetched scenario though.

[MT Treasurer]

Gaining only one seat would not only be embarrassing because of the map but also essentially guarantee a Democratic takeover of the Senate in either 2020 or 2022, so obviously it wouldn’t be something to brag about, even with lowered expectations and all of that.

Dems narrowly beating Trump, only netting a seat or two, then 2022 becoming a Republican wave doesn't really sound like a farfetched scenario though.

If Democrats are beating Trump, they are almost certainly flipping CO, NC and MT in the Senate (and maybe ME if Collins retires) as well, so that alone would get them to 51 (maybe 50 with the D vice president breaking the tie if Jones loses). And even if they only have 49 seats in 2021 and a Democrat is president, it would be pretty much impossible for them not to gain at least one seat in 2022 given how badly the map is stacked against Republicans.

[Canis]

who put this in the data base lmao and not the civics poll?

[BudgieForce]

The denial about Tennessee here is really weird. I know you guys all thought Bredesen was Senator-elect because of a poll in March, but is it really that hard to imagine that it didn't last?

It's going to look really silly later in the year when this race is basically written off and everyone here pretends they saw it coming all along, lol.

Come off it IceSpear.

If we get a poll from a respectable pollster saying Blackburn is ahead, fine. But your preconceived notions about red states doesn't mean the rest of us are in denial.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

The denial about Tennessee here is really weird. I know you guys all thought Bredesen was Senator-elect because of a poll in March, but is it really that hard to imagine that it didn't last?

It's going to look really silly later in the year when this race is basically written off and everyone here pretends they saw it coming all along, lol.

Come off it IceSpear.

If we get a poll from a respectable pollster saying Blackburn is ahead, fine. But your preconceived notions about red states doesn't mean the rest of us are in denial.

Remember that IceSpear was the poster who insisted that Roy Moore was easily going to be elected and that West Virginia would never elect a democrat in 2016 (Jim Justice won, & easily)

He's a good poster, but a moron when it comes to democrats chances of getting elected in red states.

I've thought Bredesen loses from the very start, but a +14 Blackburn poll from Surveymonkey (D- pollster) isn't changing my view of the race cuz... it's f!cking surveymonkey. Does anyone really think Manchin is up by 13 or Tester is up by 12?

[Zaybay]

The denial about Tennessee here is really weird. I know you guys all thought Bredesen was Senator-elect because of a poll in March, but is it really that hard to imagine that it didn't last?

It's going to look really silly later in the year when this race is basically written off and everyone here pretends they saw it coming all along, lol.

Come off it IceSpear.

If we get a poll from a respectable pollster saying Blackburn is ahead, fine. But your preconceived notions about red states doesn't mean the rest of us are in denial.

I agree. You(Icespear) seem to have this wierd idea that a Red state can never vote R, and that the 2016 lines are permenant. They are not. In the case of TN, and the polls we have gotten so far, Bredesen has multiple factors going his way.
1.Popularity- He is just so dang popular. In the polling we have seen so far, he has enjoyed wide bipartisan support and sits on a mountain of popularity. Of course, you may say that he would drop as soon as ads started hitting him, and this is true. But his opponent, Blackburn, is terrible. In approval. She has negative approval. In TN. How? I dont know. But she is terribly unpopular in the state, and its not inconceivable to say that voters will go with who they like rather than their party.
2. Blue Wave- Though the state will not suddenly go 50% D in registration, it will allow the voter composition on Election Day to be more Democratic. This should allow an easier win.
3. Money- Bredesen is rolling in money. He can keep pelting ads and whatnot and define Blackburn early. She, on the other hand, has no money. The ads so far from her camp have been payed for by the National party, not her.
4. Name Rec- this ties into the first point.Everyone knows who Bredesen is, but not Blackburn. With the lack of funding, she will not be able to establish herself across the state.
This poll is hot garbage, and has never been right in the entire cycle of 2017/2018. We have not gotten any recent polling of the race, yes, but to say this race is going from +10 D to +14 R is hard to believe.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Does anyone really think Manchin is up by 13?

To be fair, he won by about double that in 2012.

I am thinking Manchin wins by 7 this year.

[Free Bird]

Can we just agree to wait until a week after Labor Day with crap like this circulating right now?

[IceSpear]

Put Tennessee aside for a moment and you'll see that none of these polls massively deviate from the other data we have on those races. So it seems pretty silly and all too convenient (for Atlas) to believe that Tennessee just happens to be the only one where they're off by 15+ points. Even if it's off by quite a bit, Blackburn is still ahead, which is a big change. It's also a massive stretch to believe this poll, flawed as it is, is less relevant to the race than one conducted 4 months ago. As far as me supposedly thinking Dems can't win in red states, you should probably check my 2018 prediction page.

Anyway, time will tell.

[AtorBoltox]

Does anyone really think Manchin is up by 13

This is one more of the believable results actually

[Lachi]

Put Tennessee aside for a moment and you'll see that none of these polls massively deviate from the other data we have on those races. So it seems pretty silly and all too convenient (for Atlas) to believe that Tennessee just happens to be the only one where they're off by 15+ points. Even if it's off by quite a bit, Blackburn is still ahead, which is a big change. It's also a massive stretch to believe this poll, flawed as it is, is less relevant to the race than one conducted 4 months ago. As far as me supposedly thinking Dems can't win in red states, you should probably check my 2018 prediction page.

Anyway, time will tell.

Dude, it was a 3 week polling period, that means it's worthless, regardless of how well it fits our other data.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

These polls were spot on, but I think Nelson holds on, but McCaskill loses.

[Panda Express]

I mean, would it really be that surprising if Blackburn wins something like 54-44?

I've seen enough old-ass former governors flame out at the end these past few cycles, on both sides (Linda Lingle, Ted Strickland, Tommy Thompson, Evan Bayh, Bob Kerrey etc)

[Hindsight was 2020]

I mean, would it really be that surprising if Blackburn wins something like 54-44?

I've seen enough old-ass former governors flame out at the end these past few cycles, on both sides (Linda Lingle, Ted Strickland, Tommy Thompson, Evan Bayh, Bob Kerrey etc)

It kinda would. Bredesen is popular still today and has been dominating the airwaves in Tennessee while Blackburn is massively polarizing. Plus ever article on this race says the GOP insiders view this race as a tossup so their internal polling is definitely not Blackburn +14

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, former govs do flame out Tommy Thompson and Ted Strickland, this race hasnt been polled until now

[IceSpear]

I mean, would it really be that surprising if Blackburn wins something like 54-44?

I've seen enough old-ass former governors flame out at the end these past few cycles, on both sides (Linda Lingle, Ted Strickland, Tommy Thompson, Evan Bayh, Bob Kerrey etc)

Those names were before the time of many current posters.

[BudgieForce]

I mean, would it really be that surprising if Blackburn wins something like 54-44?

I've seen enough old-ass former governors flame out at the end these past few cycles, on both sides (Linda Lingle, Ted Strickland, Tommy Thompson, Evan Bayh, Bob Kerrey etc)

I'd argue all but Kerrey ran in unfavorable years.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ted Strickland had so much money, and blew the race, that was the biggest upset of all time

[Beet]

It's Tennessee. I'm pretty confident Blackburn will pull it out in the end. Most of what the national Democratic party is selling these days is like something from a foreign planet to folks here.

[Tender Branson]

That TN poll has a 99% likelihood of being an outlier.

I am following midterm polls for 16 years now and June/July polls often have nothing to do with the outcome in November, because June/July is vacation time and people don't give a sh*t about politics.

Besides, SurveyJunkey is a mostly untested new online pollster. Other polls, such as the respected Mason-Dixon (which is a quality pollster in the South), has shown Bredesen+3.

I think this race is a pure tossup - and while not unlikely that Blackburn could win by 3-5% in the end, there's also the chance that Bredesen will win - especially in this strong climate for the Dems.

At least we can say that there's no chance that Blackburn is up by 14 against a fairly conservative, popular former Democratic Governor in this DEM-favourable climate ...