SurveyMonkey senate poll (FL, IN, ND, NV, AZ, TN, WV, MT, and more): R+1

[BudgieForce]

SurveyMonkey sure must be cheap since both NBC and Axios keep using them. Atleast CBS has the decency to use YouGov.

[Devils30]

A lot of these polls with Scott ahead in Florida have Trump at 48-49% there. Have to doubt this number based on national polls with him at 43%.

[BudgieForce]

I do think its funny that even the director of Monmouth's polling is taking offense to Axios.

https://twitter.com/PollsterPatrick

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Yeah, there are a handful of polls that are well beyond the polling average, but most of these are within the normal polling average of their race. That doesn't mean that these were particularly well done polls, given 538's opinion of their methodology. However, at the very worst, they're another data point worth throwing on the pile.

The analysis in that article is garbage though and seems specifically designed to generate outrage, headlines and clicks. It is not, in any sense, measured or reasoned analysis. Only confirms my suspicions that Axios is the blog version of CNN.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's hard to see Nelson losing even if Putnam is Gov, with Latinos, but we'll see.

[UWS]

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1aerd3_1pJ276A7rLNRQ_Y3ifiUtSraan/view

[BudgieForce]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=296150.0

[UWS]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=296150.0

Okay

[UWS]

It's hard to see Nelson losing even if Putnam is Gov, with Latinos, but we'll see.

Actually, Scott is doing well among Hispanics with 36 % of the Hispanic vote while Nelson is only getting 37 %. And normally, I think a Republican victory in Florida requires getting at least 40 % of the local Hispanic vote.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/nbv3bzmxq0/cbs_20180624_FL.pdf

[ajc0918]

The biggest difference between FL Senate polls has been Trump's approval. Axios found Trump with 50/49 approval to disapproval while other polls have found it lower. That's largely the key difference.

[john cage bubblegum]

Conducted June 11 to July 2?  GTFO SurveyMonkey.  It's not even about the results; a lot of them look reasonable, although I doubt Tester is up that much or that Blackburn is up that much.

The article is also especially obnoxious, even by usual standard of beltway journalists who don't know how to properly analyze polls.

[DINGO Joe]

Guys, it's a Survey done by monkees.

[UWS]

Guys, it's a Survey done by monkees.

Well, we are all monkeys. Human evolved from monkey. No wonder that humans and chimps are sharing almost 99 % of their DNA.

https://www.amnh.org/exhibitions/permanent-exhibitions/human-origins-and-cultural-halls/anne-and-bernard-spitzer-hall-of-human-origins/understanding-our-past/dna-comparing-humans-and-chimps/

[GeorgiaModerate]

Guys, it's a Survey done by monkees.

Well, we are all monkeys. Human evolved from monkey. No wonder that humans and chimps are sharing almost 99 % of their DNA.

https://www.amnh.org/exhibitions/permanent-exhibitions/human-origins-and-cultural-halls/anne-and-bernard-spitzer-hall-of-human-origins/understanding-our-past/dna-comparing-humans-and-chimps/

No, the Monkees were a 60's band (sort of).  Actually, this poll is about as logical as their TV show was.

[DINGO Joe]

Guys, it's a Survey done by monkees.

Well, we are all monkeys. Human evolved from monkey. No wonder that humans and chimps are sharing almost 99 % of their DNA.

https://www.amnh.org/exhibitions/permanent-exhibitions/human-origins-and-cultural-halls/anne-and-bernard-spitzer-hall-of-human-origins/understanding-our-past/dna-comparing-humans-and-chimps/

Some of us evolved while some of us don't believe in evolving

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

A million monkeys with typewriters would eventually produce a better poll than this one.

[Zaybay]

A million monkeys with typewriters would eventually produce a better poll than this one.

that is technically true...

SurveyMonkey has always been wildly wrong and right only once, in the Alabama special election, and for that one, they released 8 different results/models.

[Nyvin]

Guys, it's a Survey done by monkees.

Well, we are all monkeys. Human evolved from monkey. No wonder that humans and chimps are sharing almost 99 % of their DNA.

https://www.amnh.org/exhibitions/permanent-exhibitions/human-origins-and-cultural-halls/anne-and-bernard-spitzer-hall-of-human-origins/understanding-our-past/dna-comparing-humans-and-chimps/

Monkeys and Apes aren't in the same family.   Monkeys are classified by having tails, while apes don't.   We belong in the ape family, along with chimps, gorillas, and orangutans.

[DINGO Joe]

A million monkeys with typewriters would eventually produce a better poll than this one.

We should leave Gravis out of this

[Virginiá]

It's hard to see Nelson losing even if Putnam is Gov, with Latinos, but we'll see.

Actually, Scott is doing well among Hispanics with 36 % of the Hispanic vote while Nelson is only getting 37 %. And normally, I think a Republican victory in Florida requires getting at least 40 % of the local Hispanic vote.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/nbv3bzmxq0/cbs_20180624_FL.pdf

I'm skeptical that Scott is going to do much better than his 2014 share among Hispanics, which was 38% (Crist got 58%, per EPs). And that seemed to track presidential results too, so it's also possible Nelson could expand on that.

[IceSpear]

Aside from Tennessee where we haven't gotten a poll since April and where Bredesen's collapse was inevitable, none of these really look too "out there" when you consider all the other polls we've gotten for these races. A bit of a high lead for Tester and Manchin and a bit of a low lead for Brown, but nothing crazy.

[UncleSam]

Survey monkey has an enormous variance but a decent mean in terms of outcomes versus results. What this means is that, while these results individually are meaningless, what the poll tells about the national landscape is reasonably accurate: right now the senate would be roughly R+1

[IceSpear]

The denial about Tennessee here is really weird. I know you guys all thought Bredesen was Senator-elect because of a poll in March, but is it really that hard to imagine that it didn't last?

It's going to look really silly later in the year when this race is basically written off and everyone here pretends they saw it coming all along, lol.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

And now for your regularly scheduled reminder that SurveyMonkey missed multiple races by over 20 points in 2016: SurveyMonkey missed multiple races by over 20 points in 2016.

nailed Indiana though

[Arkansas Yankee]

My whole right wing world has been taken in by these Survey Monkey polls.  That starts with Rush.
I hope the candidates are smarter.