Rate Blue Earth County, MN
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Poll
Question: Rate Blue Earth County, MN
#1
Strong D		  
#2
Likely D		  
#3
Lean D		  
#4
Toss Up		  
#5
Lean R		  
#6
Likely R		  
#7
Strong R		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 59

Author Topic: Rate Blue Earth County, MN  (Read 2526 times)
falling apart like the ashes of American flags
BRTD
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« on: July 09, 2018, 10:09:43 PM »
My old home. Well?
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wesmoorenerd
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« Reply #1 on: July 09, 2018, 10:11:43 PM »
Lean D. Only voted for Trump by around 3% and voted for Obama twice by a significantly larger margin. If the Dem wins they should carry it, no problem.
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Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
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« Reply #2 on: July 09, 2018, 10:11:54 PM »
probably flips just do to the closeness of it and such
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RFKFan68
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« Reply #3 on: July 09, 2018, 10:12:37 PM »
Lean D. The problem was clearly Hillary.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
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« Reply #4 on: July 10, 2018, 01:28:26 PM »
Safe D- Bullock, Klobuchar
Likely D- Sanders, Merkley, Brown, Biden
Lean D- Harris, Gillibrand
Tilt D- Warren, Booker
PTU- Warner
Tilt R- Castro
Lean R- Hickenlooper, Cuomo
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #5 on: July 10, 2018, 02:32:52 PM »
If we are not carrying Blue Earth in 2020, we are probably losing the presidency. Granted, I think we will win it back. Lean D.
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Nyssus
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« Reply #6 on: July 10, 2018, 03:34:22 PM »
Quote from: westroopnerd on July 09, 2018, 10:11:43 PM
Lean D. Only voted for Trump by around 3% and voted for Obama twice by a significantly larger margin. If the Dem wins they should carry it, no problem.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #7 on: July 10, 2018, 06:02:16 PM »
Just by its name alone, it should vote Democratic and probably will with a different candidate. I'll go with lean D.
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Politician
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #8 on: June 10, 2019, 10:31:25 AM »
Lean D, closer to Likely than Tossup. Walz literally won this by 19%.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #9 on: June 10, 2019, 10:34:02 AM »
Tilt R/Lean R.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #10 on: June 10, 2019, 10:38:11 AM »
Tossup Tilt D

Biden wins it 50/48
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #11 on: June 10, 2019, 10:38:36 AM »
https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/statesub.php?year=2018&fips=27013&f=0&off=5&elect=0
https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/statesub.php?year=2018&fips=27013&f=0&off=3&elect=0&class=2
https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/statesub.php?year=2018&off=9&elect=0&fips=27013&f=0
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Gass3268
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« Reply #12 on: June 10, 2019, 10:39:04 AM »
Even Ellison won here last year. Lean D at worst.
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Gracile
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« Reply #13 on: June 10, 2019, 11:19:13 AM »
Lean D, but it will probably be a narrower win than it was in the 2018 elections.
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redeagleofficial
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« Reply #14 on: June 10, 2019, 04:52:43 PM »
Tossup.  MN is swinging red pretty hard and Hillary got less raw votes than Romney.  If Biden is the nominee, enthusiasm among the college crowd (the dem base here) will be lower, but if Sanders was the nominee, Tilt D.
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For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law
xingkerui
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« Reply #15 on: June 10, 2019, 04:55:02 PM »
Definitely among the more likely Obama/Trump counties to flip back to the Democrats. Tilt to Lean D.
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #16 on: June 10, 2019, 06:22:29 PM »
Depends on if the MSU students swing back to being strongly Democratic. In 2016 Clinton only narrowly won the precincts around campus. My guess is Trump is far less popular with the college crowd in 2020 and the Democrat wins those precincts and the county relatively easily.
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #17 on: June 10, 2019, 06:25:28 PM »
Quote from: redeagleofficial on June 10, 2019, 04:52:43 PM
Tossup.  MN is swinging red pretty hard

No it's really not. Republicans have not won a statewide race since 2006 (Pawlenty) and have not hit 50% + in a statewide race since 1994 (Arne Carlson).
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morgieb
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« Reply #18 on: June 10, 2019, 08:57:28 PM »
Looking at the Walz/Smith figures has to be fairly optimistic that the swing here had just as much to do with bad Dem turnout on campus in 2016 as well as rural trends. Even Ellison won here. So Lean D.
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ponderosa peen 🌲
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« Reply #19 on: June 10, 2019, 08:59:33 PM »
Anecdotally I've heard from my MN friends that MN college campuses are surprisingly Trump-friendly? Granted this was in like February 2017 so there's lots of potential for change since then considering Trump is/was a pariah on every campus I've set foot on since 2015.

Quote from: King Thranduil on June 10, 2019, 10:25:52 AM
Lean D
Minnesota State University is located in Mankato



These third party numbers are why I'll never believe the Minnesota-trending-R narrative. In other states there's a credible, although debatable, argument that high third party vote consists highly of right-leaning Johnson-voting Trump skeptics, but in Minnesota it just doesn't line up with what we know about the state. I have a hard time seeing these college-town voters voting the same way in 2020.

80% chance of D wining.
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falling apart like the ashes of American flags
BRTD
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« Reply #20 on: June 10, 2019, 11:57:14 PM »
Quote from: POL_Itician on June 10, 2019, 10:31:25 AM
Lean D, closer to Likely than Tossup. Walz literally won this by 19%.
Though I agree with the first sentence its Walz's home county so not the best example.
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falling apart like the ashes of American flags
BRTD
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« Reply #21 on: November 10, 2020, 06:41:48 PM »
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #22 on: November 10, 2020, 06:47:05 PM »
Quote from: redeagleofficial on June 10, 2019, 04:52:43 PM
Tossup.  MN is swinging red pretty hard and Hillary got less raw votes than Romney.  If Biden is the nominee, enthusiasm among the college crowd (the dem base here) will be lower, but if Sanders was the nominee, Tilt D.
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falling apart like the ashes of American flags
BRTD
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« Reply #23 on: February 06, 2021, 01:54:34 PM »

LOL
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falling apart like the ashes of American flags
BRTD
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« Reply #24 on: February 06, 2021, 03:42:55 PM »
For the record I'm mostly just gloating because there was absolutely no reason to expect this to be "Lean R" unless you honestly believed after Trump's record college turnout was going to be as garbage in Minnesota as it was in 2016 (and third party support as high.)
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