current point spread of US house election

[rob in cal]

  If we were to handicap the upcoming Nov election in terms of numbers of seats won by each party, I wonder what the spread would be.  Right now I'm thinking Dems with a net gain of something like 40 seats.  It would be interesting to have a rolling number, like a point spread, for this, to see it go up and down as we get closer to game time, sorry, election day.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

18-28 seats

[136or142]

240 seats.

[Greatblueheron]

10-30 seats.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I think dems win house pv by like 5-6 points.

[TarHeelDem]

35-50 seats.

[Greatblueheron]

I think dems win house pv by like 5-6 points.

If they win by that margin they’ll probably fall a few seats short of a House majority.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I think dems win house pv by like 5-6 points.

If they win by that margin they’ll probably fall a few seats short of a House majority.

which may very well occur.

[Greatblueheron]

I think dems win house pv by like 5-6 points.

If they win by that margin they’ll probably fall a few seats short of a House majority.

which may very well occur.

Right now I think Democrats falling just short of a House majority is the most likely outcome.

[Zaybay]

30-60 seats.

At this point, its around an 80% chance the Dems take the house, they have many seats leaning in their direction, and enough tossups to take it. The size of the wave, however, will make a large difference.

 A wave of around 5-6 will result in the lowest possible amount, around 30. Where as a 10-11 point wave will result in around 50-60. If the wave is somehow larger, and it could be, then its not crazy to declare that the Dems will gain more seats that the Rs gained in 2010.

[Pericles]

Think Dems win around 230 seats-give or take 5 to either side, maybe losing 1 or 2 of their Minnesota seats and Lamb's seat.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

33 is the average will get them to 230; however, 18-28 can also be taken into account

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I think dems win house pv by like 5-6 points.

If they win by that margin they’ll probably fall a few seats short of a House majority.

which may very well occur.

Right now I think Democrats falling just short of a House majority is the most likely outcome.

sounds right

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hopefully, not😁

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Hopefully, not😁

This as well though

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

30-60 seats.

At this point, its around an 80% chance the Dems take the house, they have many seats leaning in their direction, and enough tossups to take it. The size of the wave, however, will make a large difference.

 A wave of around 5-6 will result in the lowest possible amount, around 30. Where as a 10-11 point wave will result in around 50-60. If the wave is somehow larger, and it could be, then its not crazy to declare that the Dems will gain more seats that the Rs gained in 2010.

.
Dems arent netting 60 seats

[Rhenna]

20-45 seats. The election is still months away and a lot of turbulence should be expected. The range should narrow significantly by October though.

[JGibson]

I see Dems gaining 30-45 seats.

[TarHeelDem]

30-40 seats, but I think 30 is almost a hard floor given the high number of almost certain pickups (NJ-2, VA-10, PA5, PA-6, PA-7, PA-17, AZ-2, CA-49, FL-27). In other words, 40+ is much more likely than Dems gaining less than 30.

This is a really good way of putting it.

[Politician]

40-50, but they could do as badly as 15 or as well as 80.

[Antonio the Sixth]

15-55. There's still a LOT of uncertainty

[here2view]

I just did my predictions this morning and I had the Democrats gaining 27 seats, giving them the House with a 220-215 advantage.

But, essentially:

15-55. There's still a LOT of uncertainty

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

36 GOP seats are vulnerable to takeover, Dems can win up to 33