Mexico General Discussion: Amlodipine

[jaichind]

AMLO approval rate rose from 62.6% in Nov., according to Consulta Mitofsky poll

36% of people surveyed see improvement in security, compared to 16% in Feb. 2017
46% see improvement in economy, compared to 18%

https://www.eleconomista.com.mx/politica/Incrementa-aprobacion-de-AMLO-en-el-primer-trimestre-20190228-0005.html

[jaichind]

But so far AMLO's poll ratings are through the roof.  Latest Reforma poll has AMLO's approval rating at 78%.   I get it will go down but it seems he has a lot of political capital to play with.

[jaichind]

AMLO prepares to launch new index, an indicator of happiness, well-being

https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/amlo-to-launch-gdp-replacement-an-indicator-of-happiness-well-being/

Well, if GDP is going to go down a lot in 2020 you can always come up with a new metric to measure success.

[jaichind]

Gea-Isa Poll for 2020 Q2 AMLO approval has it crashing to 39%.  To be fair it seems this pollster does have some sort of a anti-AMLO house effect (Q1 2020 AMLO approval was 47%). Still a fall of 8% is significant.   

[jaichind]

Mexico rejects ex-President Calderon's bid to register new political party

Mexico’s National Electoral Institute (INE) has denied former President Felipe Calderon’s bid to register his Free Mexico movement as a new political party, saying some of its funding was questionable.

...

INE’s general council rejected the party in a seven-to-four vote, saying late on Friday that its decision was due to Free Mexico “having more than 5% of contributions from unidentified people.”

Bad for MORENA. In 2021 I would have expected Mexico Libre to cut into the PAN vote. 

[jaichind]

Coahuila state legislature elections today.  PRI might actually do well which will represent sort of a mini comeback from the disasters of 2018 and 2019

[jaichind]

What I’m seriously interested in is finding out the state of the opposition. Exactly what is the status of PRI, PAN, and PVEM in Mexican politics right now? All the information in English that I could come across indicates that the PRD has ceased being a functioning party in all but name.

See

https://twitter.com/massivecaller

which comes out with polls daily at the state level.  Overall PAN and PRI are still viable with PAN somewhat stronger than PRI.  Despite various AMLO fiascos MORENA is well ahead of PAN and PRI. 

[jaichind]

Coahuila state legislative elections results coming in

https://iec-prep.org.mx/#/entidad

So far looks like a massive PRI landslide.  Coahuila  has a PRI governor so part of the story, I am sure, is the state government with its thumb on the scale.    Back in 2017 PRI barely defeated PAN in the governor race but clearly edged out PAN in the state legislative elections.  This time around it seems the PAN base collapsed and went over to PRI to ensure the defeat of MORENA.

[jaichind]

Back in 2017 the (with null) vote share were PRI 35.35%, PAN 29.93%, MORENA 11.01%, UDC 4.00%

This time around it is, so far with 14% of the vote in: PRI 48.26%, MORENA 19.48%, PAN 10.21%, UDC 3.75%

UDC being a local leftist regionalist party.

[jaichind]

With 41% of the vote in the PRI is en route to sweep all 16 FPTP seats although the remaining PR seats will surely mostly go to MORENA, PAN, and most likely 1 to UDC

With null vote share is

PRI         48.42%
MORENA 19.68%
PAN        11.07%
UDC         3.77%

Its been like this the entire vote count so far so most likely the ending vote shares will be very close to this.  I suspect the PR seats will be divided MORENA 5, PAN 3, UDC 1

[jaichind]

With almost all votes counted in PREP the the null vote share is

PRI         49.33%
MORENA 19.33%
PAN         9.90%
UDC         3.54%

Turnout was very low.  It seems it was the PAN base that failed to show up or voted PRI as an anti-AMLO anti-MOREAN vote when they did.

[jaichind]

Hidalgo municipal elections also mostly splinted

Vote share calculation contains null votes

                                  Cities         Vote share
PRI                               32                 24.67%
PAN                                5                  6.26%
PRD                                7                  4.40%
PAN-PRD                         6                  5.52%
MORENA                         6                10.10%
PT                                  4                  4.48%
PES                                3                  5.64%
PVEM                              5                 3.52%
MORENA-PT-PES-PVEM     5                 7.90%
MC                                 3                  3.13%
PANAL                            5                  9.28%

So if you group them by blocs

PRI                              32                   24.67%
PAN-PRD                      12                   16.18%
MORENA-PT-PES-PVEM   23                  31.64%
MC                                 3                   3.13%
PANAL                            5                   9.28%

So in this old PRI stronghold that went heavy for MORENA in 2018 PRI is making a slight comeback as the main alternative to the MORENA bloc.

PANAL which was disbanded at the federal level due to lack of support in 2018 has a significant vote share.

[jaichind]

I loled at PVEM being already in the MORENA bloc. Of course they are, why wouldn't they.

That took place right after the 2018 elections.  In Mexico you do not know which party will win but you do know that PVEM will be part of the winning alliance.

[jaichind]

Massive Caller poll for Congressional race in 2021

Raw vote share


Seat distribution based on MORENA-PT-PVEM vs PAN-PRD-MC vs PRI has MORENA bloc with a bare majority

[jaichind]

Even with a bare majority, I’m pretty sure the AMLO alliance can peel a few scant seats from PRI and PRD after-the-fact. Also considering that there’s more to lose with the various coalition possibilities on the anti-AMLO bloc, I’d say AMLO is actually safe till the election after this one, but the focus now is enacting reforms to make him popular again and change Mexico with it.

One of the things that most interests me is with the PRI. The longer they aren’t in power and end up aligning with PAN, the looser their grip is on the few institutions and reliable voter bases they have left. Depending on how long AMLO remains President, he could do quite a bit of shaking with the bureaucracy and military that were previously staffed with loyal PRIistas.

I have reason to believe that this poll is underestimating PRI and overestimating PAN.  But if accurate I think PRI will be reduced to a regional party with pockets of strength in a few states and in the rest of the states its vote share will either be absorbed by MORENA or PAN.

[jaichind]

El Universal  poll

AMLO approval/disapproval 64/25



Party support

MORENA      32
PAN             17
PRI              16
PRD              4
PVEM            4
PT                4
MC               3


Pretty good poll result for PRI under the circumstances.

[jaichind]

It seems that for 2021 elections PAN PRI PRD might form an anti-MORENA alliance.  This seems like will take place in some states but perhaps not others.  Amazing

[jaichind]

It seems that for 2021 elections PAN PRI PRD might form an anti-MORENA alliance.  This seems like will take place in some states but perhaps not others.  Amazing

Heh, can see that being stable.

I think think will work out badly for PRI.  The anti-MOREAN PRI vote might shift to PAN as a result of this alliance and PRI while the PRI vote that shifted to MORENA in 2018 might not come back even if AMLO's star loses luster next few years.  PRI might go the way of PRD and become a minor party in Mexico.

[jaichind]

So why exactly is he/they so pro-Trump?

AMLO has empathy for Trump on his claims of election fraud because AMLO in 2006 and 2012 claimed he was cheated out of election victories due to election fraud.  Part of this I am sure is also to make sure he does not look like a hypocrite than any real empathy.