Mexico General Discussion: Amlodipine

[brucejoel99]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/20/mexico-corruption-former-presidents-emilio-lozoya

Mexico’s political establishment has been shaken by claims that three former Mexican presidents and an all-star cast of lawmakers and aides may have been involved in alleged acts of corruption.

The accusations were leveled by Emilio Lozoya, the former head of Mexico’s state oil company Pemex, and will boost efforts by the country’s current president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, to portray himself as an anti-corruption crusader.

López Obrador, a 66-year-old nationalist, swept to power in 2018 pledging to rid Mexico of corruption and unseat the “mafia of power” he claimed had seized control of Latin America’s No 2 economy.

In a leaked 63-page deposition, Lozoya, who was extradited from Spain in July to face corruption charges of his own, dragged some of Mexico’s best-known politicians into a rapidly unfolding scandal.

According to the newspaper El Universal, the former Pemex chief implicated Enrique Peña Nieto, Mexico’s president from 2012 until 2018, in multimillion-dollar bribes and illegal campaign financing.

Reuters said Lozoya also claimed that Felipe Calderón – president from 2006 until 2012 – and Carlos Salinas – from 1988 to 1994 – had committed “acts possibly constituting crimes”.

Well, at least Vicente is okay

[PSOL]

The economy continues to suffer

Gross domestic product fell 17.1% in seasonally adjusted terms in the April-June period from the prior quarter, data from the national statistics agency showed Wednesday. Compared with the same quarter last year, GDP contracted 18.7%.

“Data for the second quarter confirms the Mexican economy had its worst quarterly decline of the last eight decades, after the crash in 1932 caused by the Great Depression,” said Alfredo Coutino, an economist at Moody’s Analytics.

[PSOL]

Mexico rejects ex-President Calderon's bid to register new political party

Mexico’s National Electoral Institute (INE) has denied former President Felipe Calderon’s bid to register his Free Mexico movement as a new political party, saying some of its funding was questionable.

...

INE’s general council rejected the party in a seven-to-four vote, saying late on Friday that its decision was due to Free Mexico “having more than 5% of contributions from unidentified people.”

[jaichind]

Mexico rejects ex-President Calderon's bid to register new political party

Mexico’s National Electoral Institute (INE) has denied former President Felipe Calderon’s bid to register his Free Mexico movement as a new political party, saying some of its funding was questionable.

...

INE’s general council rejected the party in a seven-to-four vote, saying late on Friday that its decision was due to Free Mexico “having more than 5% of contributions from unidentified people.”

Bad for MORENA. In 2021 I would have expected Mexico Libre to cut into the PAN vote. 

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/20/mexico-corruption-former-presidents-emilio-lozoya

Mexico’s political establishment has been shaken by claims that three former Mexican presidents and an all-star cast of lawmakers and aides may have been involved in alleged acts of corruption.

The accusations were leveled by Emilio Lozoya, the former head of Mexico’s state oil company Pemex, and will boost efforts by the country’s current president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, to portray himself as an anti-corruption crusader.

López Obrador, a 66-year-old nationalist, swept to power in 2018 pledging to rid Mexico of corruption and unseat the “mafia of power” he claimed had seized control of Latin America’s No 2 economy.

In a leaked 63-page deposition, Lozoya, who was extradited from Spain in July to face corruption charges of his own, dragged some of Mexico’s best-known politicians into a rapidly unfolding scandal.

According to the newspaper El Universal, the former Pemex chief implicated Enrique Peña Nieto, Mexico’s president from 2012 until 2018, in multimillion-dollar bribes and illegal campaign financing.

Reuters said Lozoya also claimed that Felipe Calderón – president from 2006 until 2012 – and Carlos Salinas – from 1988 to 1994 – had committed “acts possibly constituting crimes”.

Well, at least Vicente is okay

Calderón's presidency was a disaster of world-historical proportions so it would suit my preconceptions of the world if he does turn out to have been a crook as well.

[PSOL]

Outside of sucking on the right for a woman to live, there’s also this

Mexican farmers in the drought-stricken state of Chihuahua are pitted against riot squads from the national guard in an increasingly violent standoff over their government’s decision to ship scarce water supplies to the United States.

The confrontation has already led to bloodshed: earlier this month, a woman was shot dead and her husband was wounded after guardsmen opened fire on farmers wielding sticks and stones.

The Mexican government, meanwhile, has accused protesters of being backed by opposition politicians and sabotaging La Boquilla dam, which holds some of the water it wants to send north.

Yankees don’t deserve one drop of Mexican water.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Outside of sucking on the right for a woman to live, there’s also this

Mexican farmers in the drought-stricken state of Chihuahua are pitted against riot squads from the national guard in an increasingly violent standoff over their government’s decision to ship scarce water supplies to the United States.

The confrontation has already led to bloodshed: earlier this month, a woman was shot dead and her husband was wounded after guardsmen opened fire on farmers wielding sticks and stones.

The Mexican government, meanwhile, has accused protesters of being backed by opposition politicians and sabotaging La Boquilla dam, which holds some of the water it wants to send north.

Yankees don’t deserve one drop of Mexican water.

What in the world is AMLO's #populist justification for this?

[PSOL]

Outside of sucking on the right for a woman to live, there’s also this

Mexican farmers in the drought-stricken state of Chihuahua are pitted against riot squads from the national guard in an increasingly violent standoff over their government’s decision to ship scarce water supplies to the United States.

The confrontation has already led to bloodshed: earlier this month, a woman was shot dead and her husband was wounded after guardsmen opened fire on farmers wielding sticks and stones.

The Mexican government, meanwhile, has accused protesters of being backed by opposition politicians and sabotaging La Boquilla dam, which holds some of the water it wants to send north.

Yankees don’t deserve one drop of Mexican water.

What in the world is AMLO's #populist justification for this?

The farmers are shills for the opposition

Hopefully the Labour Party break with Morena once AMLO is out of the way, or at least lead to a revival of the Mexican Left before the early 1970s.

[PSOL]

Mexico’s scientists, activists and artists oppose president’s funding overhaul

Scientists, human rights defenders and artists in Mexico have warned that a plan to overhaul government funding structures threatens the future of activities as diverse as medical research, disaster response, film production and journalist protections in the country.

Mexico’s lower house of congress is expected to vote on Tuesday on a proposal to abolish 109 public trusts, diverting approximately $3bn to other priorities such as the Covid-19 pandemic response.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.foxnews.com/world/mexico-president-pope-francis-catholic-church-conquest

Mexico’s president published an open letter to Pope Francis Saturday calling on the Roman Catholic Church to apologize for abuses of Indigenous peoples during the conquest of Mexico in the 1500s.


In the letter, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador also asks the pope to lend Mexico ancient pre-Hispanic Mexican or colonial-era documents.

“The Catholic Church, the Spanish monarchy and the Mexican government should make a public apology for the offensive atrocities that Indigenous people suffered," the letter states.



López Obrador asked the pope to make a statement in favor of Miguel Hidalgo, Mexico's 19th-century independence leader who was once believed to have been excommunicated by the church for his involvement in the uprising. However, researchers later said it appeared that Hidalgo had confessed his sins before he was executed and thus was not excommunicated.

López Obrador said: “I think it would be an act of humility and at the same time greatness” for the church to reconcile posthumously with Hidalgo.

[PSOL]

MORENA party president primary

https://twitter.com/americaelige/status/1315506729266814976

Most of them seem like ex-PRD folks who left with AMLO. All that is certain is that when AMLO isn’t in full political charge, the party will probably break apart in this new environment.

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/16/world/mexico-former-defense-minister-detained/index.html

A former Mexican defense minister was arrested at Los Angeles International Airport on drug and money laundering charges, accused of taking bribes in exchange for permitting a cartel known for wholesale violence to operate with impunity in Mexico, federal prosecutors said Friday.

General Salvador Cienfuegos Zepeda, Secretary of National Defense in Mexico from 2012 to 2018, has been indicted on four counts, including international heroin, cocaine, methamphetamine and marijuana manufacture and distribution conspiracy, importation and distribution conspiracies, and conspiracy to launder narcotics proceeds, according to the US Attorney's Office for the Eastern District of New York.

Federal prosecutors said Cienfuegos Zepeda allegedly assisted the H-2 cartel, which was previously led by the late Juan Francisco Patron Sanchez, also known as "H-2," and based in Nayarit and Sinaloa, Mexico.

"The defendant abused that public position to help the H-2 Cartel, an extremely violent Mexican drug trafficking organization, traffic thousands of kilograms of cocaine, heroin, methamphetamine and marijuana into the United States, including New York City," federal prosecutors said in a letter supporting a motion for a permanent order of detention against the defendant.

"In exchange for bribe payments, he permitted the H-2 Cartel — a cartel that routinely engaged in wholesale violence, including torture and murder — to operate with impunity in Mexico."

[jaichind]

Coahuila state legislature elections today.  PRI might actually do well which will represent sort of a mini comeback from the disasters of 2018 and 2019

[PSOL]

What I’m seriously interested in is finding out the state of the opposition. Exactly what is the status of PRI, PAN, and PVEM in Mexican politics right now? All the information in English that I could come across indicates that the PRD has ceased being a functioning party in all but name.

[jaichind]

What I’m seriously interested in is finding out the state of the opposition. Exactly what is the status of PRI, PAN, and PVEM in Mexican politics right now? All the information in English that I could come across indicates that the PRD has ceased being a functioning party in all but name.

See

https://twitter.com/massivecaller

which comes out with polls daily at the state level.  Overall PAN and PRI are still viable with PAN somewhat stronger than PRI.  Despite various AMLO fiascos MORENA is well ahead of PAN and PRI. 

[jaichind]

Coahuila state legislative elections results coming in

https://iec-prep.org.mx/#/entidad

So far looks like a massive PRI landslide.  Coahuila  has a PRI governor so part of the story, I am sure, is the state government with its thumb on the scale.    Back in 2017 PRI barely defeated PAN in the governor race but clearly edged out PAN in the state legislative elections.  This time around it seems the PAN base collapsed and went over to PRI to ensure the defeat of MORENA.

[jaichind]

Back in 2017 the (with null) vote share were PRI 35.35%, PAN 29.93%, MORENA 11.01%, UDC 4.00%

This time around it is, so far with 14% of the vote in: PRI 48.26%, MORENA 19.48%, PAN 10.21%, UDC 3.75%

UDC being a local leftist regionalist party.

[jaichind]

With 41% of the vote in the PRI is en route to sweep all 16 FPTP seats although the remaining PR seats will surely mostly go to MORENA, PAN, and most likely 1 to UDC

With null vote share is

PRI         48.42%
MORENA 19.68%
PAN        11.07%
UDC         3.77%

Its been like this the entire vote count so far so most likely the ending vote shares will be very close to this.  I suspect the PR seats will be divided MORENA 5, PAN 3, UDC 1

[jaichind]

With almost all votes counted in PREP the the null vote share is

PRI         49.33%
MORENA 19.33%
PAN         9.90%
UDC         3.54%

Turnout was very low.  It seems it was the PAN base that failed to show up or voted PRI as an anti-AMLO anti-MOREAN vote when they did.

[jaichind]

Hidalgo municipal elections also mostly splinted

Vote share calculation contains null votes

                                  Cities         Vote share
PRI                               32                 24.67%
PAN                                5                  6.26%
PRD                                7                  4.40%
PAN-PRD                         6                  5.52%
MORENA                         6                10.10%
PT                                  4                  4.48%
PES                                3                  5.64%
PVEM                              5                 3.52%
MORENA-PT-PES-PVEM     5                 7.90%
MC                                 3                  3.13%
PANAL                            5                  9.28%

So if you group them by blocs

PRI                              32                   24.67%
PAN-PRD                      12                   16.18%
MORENA-PT-PES-PVEM   23                  31.64%
MC                                 3                   3.13%
PANAL                            5                   9.28%

So in this old PRI stronghold that went heavy for MORENA in 2018 PRI is making a slight comeback as the main alternative to the MORENA bloc.

PANAL which was disbanded at the federal level due to lack of support in 2018 has a significant vote share.

[kaoras]

I loled at PVEM being already in the MORENA bloc. Of course they are, why wouldn't they.

[jaichind]

I loled at PVEM being already in the MORENA bloc. Of course they are, why wouldn't they.

That took place right after the 2018 elections.  In Mexico you do not know which party will win but you do know that PVEM will be part of the winning alliance.

[jaichind]

Massive Caller poll for Congressional race in 2021

Raw vote share


Seat distribution based on MORENA-PT-PVEM vs PAN-PRD-MC vs PRI has MORENA bloc with a bare majority

[PSOL]

Even with a bare majority, I’m pretty sure the AMLO alliance can peel a few scant seats from PRI and PRD after-the-fact. Also considering that there’s more to lose with the various coalition possibilities on the anti-AMLO bloc, I’d say AMLO is actually safe till the election after this one, but the focus now is enacting reforms to make him popular again and change Mexico with it.

One of the things that most interests me is with the PRI. The longer they aren’t in power and end up aligning with PAN, the looser their grip is on the few institutions and reliable voter bases they have left. Depending on how long AMLO remains President, he could do quite a bit of shaking with the bureaucracy and military that were previously staffed with loyal PRIistas.

[jaichind]

Even with a bare majority, I’m pretty sure the AMLO alliance can peel a few scant seats from PRI and PRD after-the-fact. Also considering that there’s more to lose with the various coalition possibilities on the anti-AMLO bloc, I’d say AMLO is actually safe till the election after this one, but the focus now is enacting reforms to make him popular again and change Mexico with it.

One of the things that most interests me is with the PRI. The longer they aren’t in power and end up aligning with PAN, the looser their grip is on the few institutions and reliable voter bases they have left. Depending on how long AMLO remains President, he could do quite a bit of shaking with the bureaucracy and military that were previously staffed with loyal PRIistas.

I have reason to believe that this poll is underestimating PRI and overestimating PAN.  But if accurate I think PRI will be reduced to a regional party with pockets of strength in a few states and in the rest of the states its vote share will either be absorbed by MORENA or PAN.