Massachusetts Gubernatorial election 2006 : Romney vs Patrick

[UWS]

What if Mitt Romney ran for a second term as Governor of Massachusetts against Democrat Deval Patrick? Would he have won?

[Torrain]

In MA, in a Dem wave year? Unlikely, but not impossible.

[tmthforu94]

I think it would have been close. His approval ratings were very high before announcing he wouldn't run for reelection. The only reason it dropped was because he started touring the country to prepare for running for president. Had he stayed in Massachusetts and focused on the campaign, I think he would narrowly prevail despite it being a good year for Democrats.

[NewYorkExpress]

Romney was a moderate at the time, and Masschussetts, as Charlie Baker is proving this year, loves moderate GOP governors, even in waves that favor the opposing party.

Mitt Romney/Kerry Healy (R) 47%
Deval Patrick/Tim Murray??? (D) 43%
Christy Mihos/John J. Sullivan (I) 6%
Grace Ross/Martina Robinson (G-Rainbow) 1%

If Mihos doesn't run, most of his voters go to Romney.

[UWS]

By the way, Romney was also chairing the Governors Association during the 2006 gubernatorial elections.

[Senator Incitatus]

Also worth noting (though perhaps not for this hypo) that Romney's campaign might have changed the dynamics of the Democratic primary. Patrick winning was a huge upset at the time.

[Kingpoleon]

Mitt Romney/Richard Tisei*: 46.2%
Deval Patrick/Thomas Reilly**: 45.9%
Christy Mihos/Tim Cahill: 7.5%
Others: 0.4%

*Chosen when Healey decided to run for Congress
**Unity ticket formed to stop Romney from dominating the Democratic Party

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

Despite it being a bad GOP year, GOP governors held on in California, Connecticut, Hawaii, and Rhode Island.  Why not Massachusetts? Romney's unpopularity was mostly just due to him running for president.

[David T]

Didn't Romney start moving to the right once he announced he wouldn't be a candidate for re-election in 2006 (and starting focusing on the 2008 Republican presidential nomination instead)?  Would he still move to the right in this ATL?  If he did, he  would lose a lot of the moderates he won in 2002.

[UWS]

Didn't Romney start moving to the right once he announced he wouldn't be a candidate for re-election in 2006 (and starting focusing on the 2008 Republican presidential nomination instead)?  Would he still move to the right in this ATL?  If he did, he  would lose a lot of the moderates he won in 2002.

The only reason he shifted to the right is because he was planning to run for President, which is why his political rivals in the Republican presidential primaries in 2008 and 2012 labeled him as a flip-flopper.

[David T]

Didn't Romney start moving to the right once he announced he wouldn't be a candidate for re-election in 2006 (and starting focusing on the 2008 Republican presidential nomination instead)?  Would he still move to the right in this ATL?  If he did, he  would lose a lot of the moderates he won in 2002.

The only reason he shifted to the right is because he was planning to run for President, which is why his political rivals in the Republican presidential primaries in 2008 and 2012 labeled him as a flip-flopper.

My point, though, is that he not only realized that moving to the right was necessary if he was to win the GOP presidential nomination, but also that doing so would hurt his chances in MA--which is one reason he decided not to run again for governor.   Asking "did he move to the right because he decided not to run again for governor or because he decided to run for president" is really a false choice, because they were two sides of the same coin.

[terp40hitch]

I think it would have been Romney since Republicans who had high popularity like Romney in Democrats did hold on to their seats like in Rhode Island and California in 2006

[David T]

I think it would have been Romney since Republicans who had high popularity like Romney in Democrats did hold on to their seats like in Rhode Island and California in 2006

The problem is that Romney can probably only win in 2006 by remaining the moderate he was elected to be in 2002.  But if he does that it ruins his chances for the GOP presidential nomination in 2008.

[MillennialModerate]

It was an awful GOP year but Romney was popular and did a really good job as Governor - I honestly think he would win in this scenario. Romney 55%-45%