North Carolina GOP (The Gift That Keeps On Giving): NCGOP Chair Indicted

[Skill and Chance]

Now that SCOTUS has leaned in and decided that gerrymandering is non-justiciable, how could the SCONC alter the map and get it to stick for 2020?

The ruling applies to federal courts. The SCONC is using state law, so similar to the PA case, the maps will stand for 2020 if implemented. In fact the Supreme court case changed very little since they had always thrown out Non-VRA gerry cases beforehand, the two big court-ordered remaps in PA/FL this cycle came from state laws and state courts. States can do whatever they want, and in fact the Supreme's verdict stated that state insitutions or congress can legislate for gerrymandering in whatever manner they please, it just never can be a federal court issue and really never was.

Roberts endorsing the state commissions pretty explicitly this year was a pleasant surprise as he dissented from a 5/4 decision upholding redistricting commissions passed by referendum back in 2015.

[Skill and Chance]

This should be where we stand going into 2021 redistricting, assuming this decision also gets applied to the NC congressional districts.  Green = significant restrictions on legislature, Yellow = completely independent process

Notes:

CT+ME: 2/3rds of legislature needed to pass a map
OH: partisan maps expire after 4 years instead of 10
KY: state constitution prohibits splitting counties unnecessarily (so cannot gerrymander KY-03)
NY+UT: commission proposes map that legislature can amend within certain limits

[Skill and Chance]

Would be interesting to watch the craziness that would ensue if the House flips but the Senate majority holds, leading to split control in the redistricting year (a very plausible outcome on new maps in a mildly Dem leaning year).  Note that mid-decade redistricting is prohibited in NC (unless court-ordered), so whatever maps they agree to or a court chooses would be final for the decade.