North Carolina GOP (The Gift That Keeps On Giving): NCGOP Chair Indicted

[Virginiá]

When NC GOP loses their super majority in November, they're then going to lose their gerrymandered districts in 2020. NC GOP on suicide watch.

NCGOP is finished

RIP NC GOP.

RIP meaning "Rest In Pain".

They only need to control the legislature in 2021 to pass new gerrymanders. The Governor unfortunately has no say in the redistricting process.

The only thing that can stop them is losing at least one chamber. It would take a pretty big landslide in the legislative popular vote to do that. The best path forward is if they lose their super-majority this November and the state Supreme Court then later overturns the legislative maps. Then Democrats might have a shot in 2020. But the GA might try to expand the state Supreme Court if that constitutional amendment passes in November that essentially lets them fill judicial vacancies.

[Virginiá]

Yeah... soooo, about that:

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1020732428967538688


I mean, to be honest, everyone should have expected this. The NCGOP is arguably the most petty, corrupt and power-hungry state party in the country. Other states like Alabama may see a lot of officials arrested, but NC Republicans are most likely to behave like authoritarians when it comes to actual governing.

[Virginiá]

Surely it’s way too late at this point to remove party labels from the November ballot, no?

Even if it is, they'll probably still try anyway. Remember how it's unconstitutional for the legislature to redraw districts not affected by a court order during a special session redistricting? They did it anyway when "fixing" the racially gerrymandered legislative map(s), and the courts have let it stand for 2018 since there was no time to litigate the issue and fix it before the season started. It's about what you would expect from the NCGOP.

[Virginiá]

So they definitely are convening a special session now.

At this point, the NCGOP has made so many mistakes that I doubt even writing the language for the thing will help.

The Dems will likely break the supermajority at this rate, and if Mondale is correct, get close to/ win a majority in either chamber.

The problem is that people are voting on issues that at first glance, may not look so bad to voters. They aren't inherently bad until you take into account the motivations behind them, although I still contend that voter ID causes more problems than it fixes, and this amendment's version of it is particularly bad in that it doesn't require absentee voters to show an ID but makes in-person voters show one, which makes no sense at all, as absentee fraud is both easier and more prevalent due to a person not actually having to show up to do it.

The amendment letting the legislature fill judicial vacancies might seem innocent to voters unless Democrats invest in a well-financed education campaign. Voters may have a different opinion if they know the NCGOP only did it because they want to pack the state supreme court, which without this amendment, attempts to do so would leave Cooper, a Democrat, filling the initial extra two vacancies, not Republicans.

[Virginiá]

Pretty good case to make that retroactively stripping his partisan affiliation for partisan purposes is a constitutional violation, given the proximity to the election.

TBH, the NCGOP is going to lose this race, its just too much of a D year. The fact that they listed partisan affiliation will be the nail in the coffin. NC will see a 5-2 D SC next year.

I sure hope so, because it's all but certain that the court vacancies amendment is meant to give them a way to pack the supreme court without allowing Cooper to pick the initial judges to fill the two new vacancies. The only way to block this is to win this supreme court race, which would still give Democrats a 5-4 majority even with two new Republicans.

Also, as expected, the descriptions the GOP wrote in the special session are highly misleading.

[Virginiá]

Court blocks two highly misleading amendments meant to strip power away from Governor (temporarily - for now):

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/article216880225.html

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This ordeal is yet another chapter in the NCGOP's brazenly corrupt efforts to steal and entrench power in the state government. It's also a good example of their arrogance, as they wrote descriptions so misleading that even a court had to block them. The legislature didn't need to go that far, imo. They could have wrote a more reasonable design without making it that much more likely to lose.

But, then again, that is one of the hallmarks of the NCGOP. They make extreme and often illegal efforts to get what they want, even when it's not really necessary.

[Virginiá]

Ugh, I come here thinking I'm finally the first one to post a poll, and here it already is, posted hours ago lmbo. This just reminds me why I love this forum so much. For all the crap Atlas gets, it's not easy to find another forum out there dedicated to political data but also highly active too. I don't think another one exists.

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Anyway, this is amazing. I was deeply skeptical that the judicial selection and election board amendments would fail, given how innocuous they seem to the average voter, but word seems to be out that they are power grabs. Even if just the judicial selection amendment failed, that would still be a massive win. It means no court-packing and the state supreme court goes 5 - 2 Democratic.

If that happens, the legislative lame duck period is going to be interesting. Can't wait to see how Republicans plan to lash out then. Maybe they can pass a bill defunding coffee machines in the Governor's office?

[Virginiá]

Pennsylvania 2.0. Karma is a bitch.

I couldn't get lucky enough for that to happen here. Most of the best maps in effect right now, were drawn by the courts.

Couldn't another lawsuit be filed in state court before the 2020 elections challenging the maps as partisan gerrymanders? The maps that were sued over before in state court years ago are no longer even in effect afaik, since the legislature redrew them due to a federal lawsuit (and still played games too, re-gerrymandering districts in violation of state law outside the parameters of the federal court order). Quite frankly, at this point, I don't even care if they technically shouldn't. They should find a justification and just redraw the maps ASAP just to restore some semblance of sanity to the state's government. You can't have a functional democracy if the pseudo-majority party is constantly rigging the system and changing the rules every single year.

The best thing for North Carolina is neutral maps and a divided government through the early-mid 2020s at least. Make these people work together and especially for the NCGOP, humble them a bit and teach them that they aren't the center of the universe and that yes, NC is not some staunchly Republican deep south state, and yes, the political opposition has a legitimate right to govern if they win power.

[Virginiá]

Totally forgot about this, but regarding North Carolina's 5 - 2 Democratic Supreme Court:

https://twitter.com/PoliticsWolf/status/1060313217837252608


If they want, this is a slam dunk. Just throw a dart on a board with this list and get moving:

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Follow the NCGOP's example and just do whatever you want and see if anyone can stop you

[Virginiá]

Important to note that besides the power-grab amendments, all other four (including voter ID) passed.

Voter ID will likely be ruled against at some point and the hunt and fish amendment is basically meaningless. Also, the victim's rights amendment was always going to pass.

In the event the 4th circuit doesn't throw it out, maybe the state Supreme Court can, at the very least, rebuff GOP attempts to craft very strict lists of IDs that inevitably exclude IDs disproportionately possessed by Democrats.

The amendment also doesn't require IDs for absentee ballots (on purpose), so maybe they can try and make a case for that too. Like I said before, just make something up and throw it out. Play the game the way the NCGOP wants to play.

[Virginiá]

It's happening.gif

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1062382430915571712

Kinda surprised they didn't wait until after the lame duck was over.

Yea, I was thinking it might be iffy to do that while they can still technically impeach justices, but then again, Cooper would get to fill the vacancy with another Democrat, so it doesn't matter. We'll see if the General Assembly will lash out soon in their special session. They are a very reactionary bunch, so I'm sure this is weighing heavily on them.

[Virginiá]

Proposed photo ID rules:

https://twitter.com/TimBoyumTV/status/1064996731610374151


It could be worse, but I think they are trying to play it safe to avoid them getting struck down in federal court.

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Also, plaintiffs ask that trial be held around April for NC partisan gerrymandering lawsuit (legislative maps):

http://pulse.ncpolicywatch.org/2018/11/21/partisan-gerrymandering-plaintiffs-ask-state-court-to-speed-up-proceedings/

[Virginiá]

4th time's a charm?    (re-post)

https://twitter.com/CraigJ_NandO/status/1068157984906387456

[Virginiá]

NC GOP Trying Again To Cement Control Of Local Elections Boards During Election Years

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/muckraker/nc-gop-trying-again-to-cement-control-of-local-elections-boards-during-election-years

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So basically, the GOP gets to hold a majority on county election boards when there is a major election, and Democrats can chair when it's nothing but local elections. Sounds very fair and definitely not a power grab meant to deny early voting to Democratic counties!

They just can't stop trying to seize control of election boards. Their desperation stinks.

[Virginiá]

Why is the Supreme Court even needed? How can they pass this over Cooper's veto?

It's a lame-duck bill with their lame super majority.

[Virginiá]

I was wrong, this is their 5th attempt to seize control of the election boards. The first three were shot down by the SC, and the 4th one failed because voters didn't approve the constitutional amendment.

Also, part of what I was saying before about Republicans changing the election board powers to blunt the election fraud investigation:

https://twitter.com/ECGreaves/status/1070030707332972550

NC Republicans never disappoint

So they lose the supermajority after the new legislature is sworn in?

Yup.

[Virginiá]

More like go to war. Republican majorities rather then supermajorities, a Dem gov, and Dem courts mean that this is not going to be resolved without a fierce fight.

I mean, in the end, if a 5 - 2 Democratic Supreme Court wants to redraw these maps >= 2019, there is little the NCGOP can do. They can drag their feet, stall, threaten people, complain, cry in a corner, etc etc, it doesn't matter. Either they end up capitulating or the court steps in and draws it for them (99% likely). So it might get heated, but there isn't much Republicans can do in this scenario. It's why they invested so much effort in trying to change the judiciary and how vacancies are filled. They were absolutely planning on packing the SC if the relevant amendment was approved.

The real battle is probably going to be 2020, for the governors office and 1 Republican Supreme Court seat, and especially 2022, where a slew of Supreme Court justices must stand for reelection: 3 Democrats, 1 Republican. There is a real chance that Republicans could take back the Supreme Court in 2022, particularly if a Democrat wins the presidency. This is a big deal, because if Democrats have not flipped a chamber of the legislature in 2020, there would be no stopping fresh gerrymanders. Democrats increasing their SC majority to 6 - 1 in 2020's elections should be a top priority to head off this scenario.

[Virginiá]

elll-ooo-elll:

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1074821943952584706

(this maneuver is not guaranteed to succeed fwiw)

[Virginiá]

LOL

oh my god

edit: can't help but feel like if the NCGOP didn't try to undermine their own state's judiciary so badly and so thoroughly for so many years, he might have actually stayed on.

[Virginiá]

NC GOP would like Democratic Governor Roy Cooper to respect the will of the people and maintain the partisan balance of the court by filling the seat with a Republican judge

https://twitter.com/RaleighReporter/status/1090303679452901376

.....

[Virginiá]

FWIW I believe the canceled judicial primaries for 2018 was just that - 2018 only, and not a change to future elections. The official justification Republicans gave was that they needed more time to debate/pass a redistricting bill for judicial districts (and other power grab reforms). Although we all know they just wanted to hang on to a Supreme Court seat at any cost.

https://www.greensboro.com/news/government/elections/federal-appeals-court-backs-skipping-judicial-primaries-in-north-carolina/article_b54bdeff-e19d-5c23-b7f5-8cd03e1ead28.html

So vote splitting shouldn't be a big issue this time around.

[Virginiá]

When will the NC Dems win back control of both chambers of the NC General Assembly ?

A.) 2020

B.) 2022

C.) 2024

D.) 2026

If the maps are redrawn and 2020 is a wave, I'd say they have a shot in 2020. Otherwise, if Trump wins reelection, I'd say 2022 (assuming, again, maps are fair). If a Democrat wins the White House, maybe 2024. I'm not sure they would flip it in a Dem midterm since 2022 would be a drag on downballot Democrats.

Nonetheless, this is still cause for celebration if you ask me. NC Democrats had few if any prospects just 2.5 years ago, and now they are already regaining their footing and have basically retaken the judiciary in a big way.

[Virginiá]

lolol^

Dallas Woodhouse next please

[Virginiá]

Dallas Woodhouse stepping down as Executive Director of the NCGOP:

https://www.wral.com/woodhouse-to-step-down-as-nc-gop-director/18327447/

"My contract expires at the end of the state convention. With the election of a new State Chair, and after four challenging years, a tenure longer than most in this post, I am moving on," Woodhouse said in a text to WAL News.

Woodhouse has been a vocal representative for the GOP in North Carolina in recent years, championing the party's legislative agenda and roundly criticizing Democrats at every turn. His departure will leave a leadership void in the party, which will host the 2020 Republican National Convention in 16 months.

[Virginiá]

At this point, I think North Carolina is going to be my favorite state to watch elections for in 2020. If the maps get redrawn, Democrats have some real opportunities for 2020 and beyond. Not to mention the slew of executive office races.

Not to mention how delightful it would be to see someone like Dan Forest lose.