North Carolina GOP (The Gift That Keeps On Giving): NCGOP Chair Indicted

[Nyvin]

To think the NCGOP eliminated the primary to try to hope for a D-D-R plurality race....talk about shooting yourself in the foot.

[Nyvin]

Important to note that besides the power-grab amendments, all other four (including voter ID) passed.

Voter ID will likely be ruled against at some point and the hunt and fish amendment is basically meaningless. Also, the victim's rights amendment was always going to pass.

Wasn't the Marsy's Law amendment supported by Democrats though?   The hunt and fish thing wasn't very political either way.

[Nyvin]

Laughs. Lived in North Carolina all my life up until 2012. Democrats ran the state continuously for more or less 130 years essentially unchallenged.

This sounds a lot like the zany claim that "Democrats were the party of slavery". Yes, in the 1860s. That was a long time ago.

The GOP has not realised that in today's world, politics is about much more than money. It undergirds every aspect of ours lives, from family to consumption to sexuality. Attacking the process of fair elections is denying the right to a fair society, which is the core belief in the US as a country. The anger will never subside.


That there were shocking shenanigans in the 1950s in North Carolina, a time of white male authority when a large chunk of the population was disenfranchised, is immaterial to today's world and does not justify anyone's actions.

The actions I'm describing were from the 1990s and 2000s where the Democrats dominated affairs on a state level. I've not even touched the unique version of straight ticket voting the state at least used to have, not sure if they still do, that the Democrats pushed through (you can vote straight ticket for everything but president, that way if you hated the national Democratic Party as a lot of N.C. Democrats at least used to, you could vote R for president and D for everything else), or how white Democrat vs. black Democrat politics work in smaller voting districts (e.g. municipal level). This wasn't the 1950s, this was the 2000s.

North Carolina Democrats raising hell about the Republican actions in the state is an alcoholic suddenly finding religion and is in favor of throwing the book at anyone that has a sip of wine. I was a resident of the state of North Carolina for 30 years of my life, lived in Beaufort, New Bern, Havelock, Raleigh during my time in college, Rocky Mount, took classes in North Carolina history, was actually awake for them, and you're a resident of Ireland per your avatar. Unless you're lying about where you're from, I think I know more about the state politically than you, with all due respect.

State Democrats suddenly throwing a fit about gerrymandering, dear God, if there was ever a clearer case of the pot calling the kettle black. "Racial gerrymandering" - go look at the electoral map of eastern North Carolina over the past 30 years. The 1st and 3rd districts of the '90s were outright disasters and the guy that drew it should be locked in jail for having his only eye being toward intentionally segregating voters away from one another based on racial demographics. And you know who drew that map? A Democrat, because they controlled the State House continuously from 1899 to 2010 for all but a handful of years. Democrats can tell me they have changed when they start holding resolutions for their state party going back and censuring the actions of their corrupt members of the past. Until then, don't sit and try and tell me they're any better than the North Carolina GOP and act holier than thou. I'm not sitting here and telling you the North Carolina GOP are intelligent and saints, I'm telling you the Democrats are no better than them. They're a bunch of Bev Perdues, Easleys, and Holden Thorps.

"30 years ago Democrats did something really bad, so they can't complain about anything bad the Republicans do today!!"

[Nyvin]

Saw a statement that the legislature is not going to appeal the decision.

You mean this? https://twitter.com/NickOchsnerWBTV/status/1168998919885508608

They realize how there is literally no way to win in a 6D-1R State Supreme Court,  so there's no point to appeal.

[Nyvin]

Activists now prepare to move against the Congressional Map, though they would have to move fast with the  primaries approaching.

Why didn't they do them both at the same time?

I think it was too close to the previous lawsuit that had the congressional districts redrawn in 2018. 

[Nyvin]

Does the NCGOP even know the purpose of having a legislative assembly of representatives?   They're there to represent the interests of the people in the state, not rig the system to get what they want.

They did this while the NC House Dems were attending a ceremony for 9/11....wow!

[Nyvin]

The Republicans Senate map has Clinton winning 21 seats comfortably, and Trump winning 28 seats comfortably, with 1 seat (SD-9) as a swing seat, Trump won it by 3.4%.

To win a majority on that map, the NC Dems would have to flip seats that Trump won by >10%.

[Nyvin]

If you look at the live feed, Sen Alexander has been in the room almost the whole time, lol.   He must be freaked out.

[Nyvin]

For the State Senate,  the court order actually didn't include Cumberland at all, it also didn't include the 3 currently Dem held seats in the northeast at all either.  It also required that the drawers keep the same "country groupings" as the current map.

Here's the counties the court orders be redrawn for the state senate:

-Alamance-Guilford-Randolph (except that Senate Districts 24 and 28shall not be redrawn, and any portions of Senate District 27 added by theCovington Special Master shall not be altered)

-Bladen-Brunswick-New Hanover-Penderc

-Buncombe-Henderson-Transylvaniad

-Davie-Forsythe

-Duplin-Harnett-Johnston-Lee-Nash-Sampson

-Franklin-Wake

-Mecklenburg

So the redrawing can't change what counties are included in what districts, it can only change the lines of the districts within their current counties.  

From the looks of the redrawn map done by the Republican legislature it would seem the NCGOP is conceding Mecklenburg entirely, holding the line in the Forsythe/Guilford area, and conceding only a little in Wake.   The changes in the remaining counties didn't change much at all (In New Hanover they actually just swapped two precincts for  one other)

Mecklenburg	Old 2016 D	Old 2016 R	New 2016 D	New 2016 R
SD-37	76.37%	19.88%	58.30%	38.10%
SD-38	77.46%	20.18%	76.60%	20.40%
SD-39	46.69%	49.57%	54.30%	41.90%
SD-40	72.91%	24.35%	71%	26.40%
SD-41	50.73%	45.48%	59%	37.60%
Wake
SD-14	68.61%	28.49%	57.70%	38.60%
SD-15	69.60%	26.60%	71.90%	24.70%
SD-16	61.04%	34.93%	61.70%	34.40%
SD-17	46.15%	49.64%	49.80%	45.90%
SD-18	45.75%	50.84%	49.50%	47.40%
New Hanover
SD-9	45.22%	51.16%	46.50%	49.90%
Forsyth
SD-31	34.94%	61.77%	43.60%	53.60%
SD-32	69.92%	27.34%	56.90%	39.80%
Guilford
SD-26	32.66%	65.20%	30.20%	67.60%
SD-27	46.16%	50.85%	47.40%	49.70%
SD-28	74.10%	23.38%	74.10%	23.40%
Buncombe
SD-48	38.41%	58.55%	37.70%	59.40%
SD-49	57.75%	39.20%	58.20%	38.70%

They moved all the Mecklenburg district's out of reach for the GOP,  while the Wake county districts are still somewhat competitive (although they are much more in the Dem's column now).  

Forsyth and Wake could still be improved dramatically (with nicer districts).   I don't find their redraws in those counties acceptable.   Guilford could be improved by having all of High Point in SD-27.

Swapping the two precincts in New Hanover did make SD-9 roughly 2.5% more dem, and not much more can possibly be done there anyway, so that's fine.

The redraws in Buncombe and Johnston don't really change anything, boring.

I'd say the Democrats push for better districts in Wake and Forsyth, maybe small adjustments in Guilford, while leaving the rest as they are now.   Sucks they can't redraw the Dem vote sink of SD-28, wtf?

[Nyvin]

I put the House's map in QGIS and then redrew the districts in DRA.   Here's the map

https://davesredistricting.org/join/053fd071-3670-4283-8e7e-045c9a3033fc

It's not perfect since a lot of the precincts in DRA don't match up with the precincts in the map's shapefile.

Still, it should give a general idea of where the House districts are in the new map.   

In 2016 Clinton would've won 47 districts in the State House using that map.   Again, to win a majority, Democrats would need to flip seats that Trump won by >10%.

[Nyvin]

Given the restraints put in place by the court,  the only areas on the Senate Map I can see where there's potential for improvement for the Democrats would be Forsythe and Wake,  along with keeping as much of High Point in SD-27 as possible.  

That basically gives Democrats 24 "winnable" seats:

5 in Wake
5 in Mecklenburg
2 in Durham
2 in Guilford
2 in Forsythe/Davie
2 in Cumberland
2 in rural northeast
1 in Orange/Chatham
1 in Pitt
1 in Buncombe
1 in New Hanover

I don't see anywhere on the map they can get the last 1 or 2 seats (depending if they get Lt Gov) with the redrawing given what the court order says.

With the current map I'd see them having probably 23 seats - all the ones they currently do now plus SD-39 and SD-18.   The only one really out of reach is the Forsythe/Davie one (SD-31 I think, it's tough but not impossible).    

The dem margins in the Wake County districts and SD-27 could be improved to not be so close though.

Edit - Part of the court order is that the new districts "Improve compactness" which the new SD-31 in Forsyth/Davie certainly doesn't do at all.   I won't be surprised to see the court strike that particular district down and draw a new one that's easily more compact (and more competitive).   That would make for 24 seats the Democrats can win next year.