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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  North Carolina GOP (The Gift That Keeps On Giving): NCGOP Chair Indicted
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Author Topic: North Carolina GOP (The Gift That Keeps On Giving): NCGOP Chair Indicted  (Read 22526 times)
President Pericles
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« Reply #250 on: September 11, 2019, 09:40:56 pm »

This is like a perfect example, LIVE, of why lawmakers should not be allowed anywhere near the maps and basically a non-factor in the process. They won't be able to help themselves, even when under court order. They don't want to risk losing their jobs and many of them don't even want to have to actually run in a competitive election and will do whatever they have to in order to avoid it. It's a massive conflict of interest and one of the founding father's biggest mistakes.

Agreed, even if they don't do a partisan gerrymander they'll do an incumbent protection gerrymander and there are many ways for them to deviate from a fair map. Voters should choose their politicians rather than politicians choosing their voters, after all.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #251 on: September 11, 2019, 09:57:25 pm »

btw can anyone explain how the D's get the 6 seats to flip the NC house?

They are literally maxed out in Charlotte afaik due to a dummymander. The GOP should probably have 1 seat there in 2018 in a fair map. How would they flip 7 other seats?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #252 on: September 11, 2019, 10:56:03 pm »

btw can anyone explain how the D's get the 6 seats to flip the NC house?

They are literally maxed out in Charlotte afaik due to a dummymander. The GOP should probably have 1 seat there in 2018 in a fair map. How would they flip 7 other seats?

Because the seats they need aren't in Charolette/Raleigh, those areas fell in 2018 and if drawn fairly probably would have fallen earlier. The seats Dems need to win are in the East and the Greensboro/Winston-Salem area where race plays a big factor in voting Because of this, its very easy for the GOP to pack up the AA seats and divide the white dems, and they did it before. It's those places where the map falls down.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #253 on: September 12, 2019, 09:49:56 am »

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Gass3268
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« Reply #254 on: September 12, 2019, 11:14:05 am »



Some places look okay, most still look pretty cracked and packed.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #255 on: September 12, 2019, 11:17:04 am »
« Edited: September 12, 2019, 11:27:24 am by Nyvin »

The Republicans Senate map has Clinton winning 21 seats comfortably, and Trump winning 28 seats comfortably, with 1 seat (SD-9) as a swing seat, Trump won it by 3.4%.

To win a majority on that map, the NC Dems would have to flip seats that Trump won by >10%.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #256 on: September 12, 2019, 12:17:55 pm »

The state legislature has made a mockery of the process, and hopefully the North Carolina Supreme Court recognizes this and appoints a special master.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #257 on: September 12, 2019, 12:22:02 pm »

The state legislature has made a mockery of the process, and hopefully the North Carolina Supreme Court recognizes this and appoints a special master.

yeah they know they lost so this is all just trolling.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #258 on: September 12, 2019, 01:25:43 pm »

If you look at the live feed, Sen Alexander has been in the room almost the whole time, lol.   He must be freaked out.
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ltomlinson31
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« Reply #259 on: September 12, 2019, 04:12:48 pm »

If you look at the live feed, Sen Alexander has been in the room almost the whole time, lol.   He must be freaked out.

And now he's retiring.

https://www.wral.com/wake-county-senator-won-t-seek-re-election/18629639/?version=amp&__twitter_impression=true
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #260 on: September 12, 2019, 04:15:04 pm »


He probably watched himself get thrown under the bus in real time.
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Storr
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« Reply #261 on: September 12, 2019, 06:55:35 pm »


He probably watched himself get thrown under the bus in real time.
Yep, he's also the last Republican representing either chamber in Wake County.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #262 on: September 13, 2019, 11:41:50 am »

Shocking that Art Pope was not selected! /s

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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #263 on: September 14, 2019, 10:12:14 am »

DRA has new data and features specifically for North Carolina and North Carolina legislative redistricting. If you want to play around, go crazy!
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Nyvin
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« Reply #264 on: September 14, 2019, 02:17:33 pm »
« Edited: September 15, 2019, 10:55:35 am by Nyvin »

For the State Senate,  the court order actually didn't include Cumberland at all, it also didn't include the 3 currently Dem held seats in the northeast at all either.  It also required that the drawers keep the same "country groupings" as the current map.

Here's the counties the court orders be redrawn for the state senate:

-Alamance-Guilford-Randolph (except that Senate Districts 24 and 28shall not be redrawn, and any portions of Senate District 27 added by theCovington Special Master shall not be altered)

-Bladen-Brunswick-New Hanover-Penderc

-Buncombe-Henderson-Transylvaniad

-Davie-Forsythe

-Duplin-Harnett-Johnston-Lee-Nash-Sampson

-Franklin-Wake

-Mecklenburg

So the redrawing can't change what counties are included in what districts, it can only change the lines of the districts within their current counties.  

From the looks of the redrawn map done by the Republican legislature it would seem the NCGOP is conceding Mecklenburg entirely, holding the line in the Forsythe/Guilford area, and conceding only a little in Wake.   The changes in the remaining counties didn't change much at all (In New Hanover they actually just swapped two precincts for  one other)

Mecklenburg
Old 2016 DOld 2016 R
New 2016 D
New 2016 R
SD-37
76.37%
19.88%
58.30%
38.10%
SD-38
77.46%
20.18%
76.60%
20.40%
SD-39
46.69%
49.57%
54.30%
41.90%
SD-40
72.91%
24.35%
71%
26.40%
SD-41
50.73%
45.48%
59%
37.60%
Wake
SD-14
68.61%
28.49%
57.70%
38.60%
SD-15
69.60%
26.60%
71.90%
24.70%
SD-16
61.04%
34.93%
61.70%
34.40%
SD-17
46.15%
49.64%
49.80%
45.90%
SD-18
45.75%
50.84%
49.50%
47.40%
New Hanover
SD-9
45.22%
51.16%
46.50%
49.90%
Forsyth
SD-31
34.94%
61.77%
43.60%
53.60%
SD-32
69.92%
27.34%
56.90%
39.80%
Guilford
SD-26
32.66%
65.20%
30.20%
67.60%
SD-27
46.16%
50.85%
47.40%
49.70%
SD-28
74.10%
23.38%
74.10%
23.40%
Buncombe
SD-48
38.41%
58.55%
37.70%
59.40%
SD-49
57.75%
39.20%
58.20%
38.70%

They moved all the Mecklenburg district's out of reach for the GOP,  while the Wake county districts are still somewhat competitive (although they are much more in the Dem's column now).  

Forsyth and Wake could still be improved dramatically (with nicer districts).   I don't find their redraws in those counties acceptable.   Guilford could be improved by having all of High Point in SD-27.

Swapping the two precincts in New Hanover did make SD-9 roughly 2.5% more dem, and not much more can possibly be done there anyway, so that's fine.

The redraws in Buncombe and Johnston don't really change anything, boring.

I'd say the Democrats push for better districts in Wake and Forsyth, maybe small adjustments in Guilford, while leaving the rest as they are now.   Sucks they can't redraw the Dem vote sink of SD-28, wtf?
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Ishan
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« Reply #265 on: September 15, 2019, 02:52:15 pm »

Also, who will win the primaries for the Lt. Gov race so far? (Sorry if this is not on topic.)
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Nyvin
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« Reply #266 on: September 15, 2019, 05:04:47 pm »

I put the House's map in QGIS and then redrew the districts in DRA.   Here's the map

https://davesredistricting.org/join/053fd071-3670-4283-8e7e-045c9a3033fc

It's not perfect since a lot of the precincts in DRA don't match up with the precincts in the map's shapefile.

Still, it should give a general idea of where the House districts are in the new map.   

In 2016 Clinton would've won 47 districts in the State House using that map.   Again, to win a majority, Democrats would need to flip seats that Trump won by >10%.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #267 on: September 16, 2019, 07:37:23 pm »



How pathetic. They'd rather increase their odds of remaining in the minority, mostly powerless, so long as some of them get safer seats. Literally not even about governing at this point. Just warming seats and collecting a paycheck.

Every last one of them needs to be primaried.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #268 on: September 16, 2019, 07:39:32 pm »



How pathetic. They'd rather increase their odds of remaining in the minority, mostly powerless, so long as some of them get safer seats. Literally not even about governing at this point. Just warming seats and collecting a paycheck.

Every last one of them needs to be primaried.

Yeah, this is disgusting.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #269 on: September 16, 2019, 07:57:36 pm »

Would be interesting to watch the craziness that would ensue if the House flips but the Senate majority holds, leading to split control in the redistricting year (a very plausible outcome on new maps in a mildly Dem leaning year).  Note that mid-decade redistricting is prohibited in NC (unless court-ordered), so whatever maps they agree to or a court chooses would be final for the decade.
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Comrade Funk
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« Reply #270 on: September 16, 2019, 07:58:09 pm »

A flat out abomination. I hope they are shamed and humiliated by their constituents.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #271 on: September 16, 2019, 08:14:14 pm »

Im still sure that the court has enough evidence to scrap the map made by the legislature, but the Senate Ds are really not helping.
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Unconditional Surrender Truman
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« Reply #272 on: September 16, 2019, 08:16:47 pm »



How pathetic. They'd rather increase their odds of remaining in the minority, mostly powerless, so long as some of them get safer seats. Literally not even about governing at this point. Just warming seats and collecting a paycheck.

Every last one of them needs to be primaried.
This 100%. Hopefully the SC proves competent and strikes down the new maps.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #273 on: September 16, 2019, 10:23:12 pm »

Im still sure that the court has enough evidence to scrap the map made by the legislature, but the Senate Ds are really not helping.

Republicans now have the clear defense of "these maps are bipartisan, look at all the Democrats who voted for them!"
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Mondale
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« Reply #274 on: September 16, 2019, 10:32:01 pm »

Is anyone really surprised? The Democratic Party does not fight and if you want to continue this kind of WEAK leadership then vote for people like Biden to be the standard bearer of the party.

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