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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  North Carolina GOP (The Gift That Keeps On Giving): NCGOP Chair Indicted
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Author Topic: North Carolina GOP (The Gift That Keeps On Giving): NCGOP Chair Indicted  (Read 21850 times)
Nyvin
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« Reply #200 on: September 03, 2019, 04:55:32 pm »


They realize how there is literally no way to win in a 6D-1R State Supreme Court,  so there's no point to appeal.
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President Pericles
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« Reply #201 on: September 03, 2019, 05:18:41 pm »

Great ruling-a victory for democracy! Looks like NC state legislature is now truly competitive in 2020. It depends on what the new maps end up being, but it's bound to be better than the current maps.
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Duke of York
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« Reply #202 on: September 03, 2019, 05:45:23 pm »


They realize how there is literally no way to win in a 6D-1R State Supreme Court,  so there's no point to appeal.

They wont and given the precedent SCOTUS set this term they wont take up the case as it was decided under the state constitution.
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Ridin' with Biden
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« Reply #203 on: September 03, 2019, 06:04:31 pm »

Is this for both the state legislature and congressional seats? I have wondered why there was no state legislature redraws in PA as well.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #204 on: September 03, 2019, 07:16:33 pm »

Is this for both the state legislature and congressional seats? I have wondered why there was no state legislature redraws in PA as well.

Just the state legislature.
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NoobMaster69
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« Reply #205 on: September 03, 2019, 08:33:58 pm »

Glad to see these bastards get their comeuppance.
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L.D. Smith
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« Reply #206 on: September 03, 2019, 09:15:09 pm »

Glad to see these bastards get their comeuppance.

Too bad they couldn't have toppled Richard Burr and stopped Donald Trump with them.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #207 on: September 03, 2019, 11:03:18 pm »

Its here! So what will the dem court do now is the question. Perhaps they draw a bunch of competitive seats. Perhaps they will draw seats that will result in a dem majority, to force divided govt in 2020. Perhaps they just change around the AA seats in the east. Perhaps the GOP will try to claw onto their majority for 2 more years.  Who knows for now.

Key evidence: Plaintiff's expert drew 1000 sets of plans at random minimizing municipality splits, VTD splits, and compactness.

The random maps did remarkably better on municipality splits and VTD splits. I suspect that this was largely that the legislature map was not religiously avoiding splits.

The random maps also did better on partisan results. For example, based on a suite of 10 statewide races, the legislature's plan would have elected 42 Democrats to the House, while they typical random plan would have elected 46 or 47.

BUT

There are 120 House members. A "fairer" plan drawn with traditional redistricting criteria such as respecting political boundaries and compactness would increase the Democratic percentage from 35% to 39%.

It should be remember that it was a Republican-initiated lawsuit that forced the legislature to more closely follow the state constitution with regard to county split, led to the Republican legislative victory in 2010, even though the Democrats drew the map.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #208 on: September 04, 2019, 07:58:33 pm »

Activists now prepare to move against the Congressional Map, though they would have to move fast with the  primaries approaching.
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gracile
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« Reply #209 on: September 04, 2019, 08:15:51 pm »


Although it isn't ideal the Court has the ability to alter the primary schedule to accommodate a new map, which includes holding the primary on a different date than the one currently set (like what happened in 2016).
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Gass3268
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« Reply #210 on: September 05, 2019, 09:50:10 am »
« Edited: September 05, 2019, 11:46:27 am by Gass3268 »


They realize how there is literally no way to win in a 6D-1R State Supreme Court,  so there's no point to appeal.

I've actually seen some rumblings that the plaintiffs should appeal in order to get a better ruling (essentially requiring the court to draw the first round of maps as the defendants can't be trusted).
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #211 on: September 05, 2019, 11:08:22 am »


Why didn't they do them both at the same time?
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Virginiá
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« Reply #212 on: September 05, 2019, 11:18:55 am »


Who knows. Given the shifts from Republican to Democratic majorities in the appellate/Supreme Court, it would have been a reasonable assumption to believe the lawsuits would succeed. I mean, the NCSC has a 6 - 1 Democratic majority, and the newest justice was literally involved in gerrymandering lawsuit(s) for the left, for gods sakes.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #213 on: September 05, 2019, 11:36:37 am »


I think it was too close to the previous lawsuit that had the congressional districts redrawn in 2018. 
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Comrade Funk
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« Reply #214 on: September 05, 2019, 11:54:11 am »

I wonder if they will attempt to strike down the state legislature map in PA too? I certainly hope so. Dems won by 11 points and still can't get a majority.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #215 on: September 05, 2019, 12:52:39 pm »

I wonder if they will attempt to strike down the state legislature map in PA too? I certainly hope so. Dems won by 11 points and still can't get a majority.

The problem that PA dems have is Philly. The Philly burbs have helped a bit, but the Democrats used to be able to contest for the legislature by controlling Western PA rural seats. The gerrymandering being removed will probably reduce the differential, but the Democrats have way to many seats that go 80% and 90% Democratic.

It would require a competitiveness gerrymander that would turn the state into spaghetti strips.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #216 on: September 06, 2019, 03:28:12 pm »

The New Yorker got a full look at all of the Hofeller files.

Probably enough evidence in here to get their Congressional map thrown out again for being a racial gerrymander, among other things.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #217 on: September 06, 2019, 09:43:42 pm »

NCGOP says f it, decides to troll court that threw out their partisan gerrymander:

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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #218 on: September 07, 2019, 01:38:53 am »

Bought and paid for is the best term that comes to mind.
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voice_of_resistance
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« Reply #219 on: September 07, 2019, 02:53:11 am »

can we bring about non-racist Redeemers who will bar the GOP from ever holding power in NC?
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lfromnj
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« Reply #220 on: September 07, 2019, 10:46:01 am »

The New Yorker got a full look at all of the Hofeller files.

Probably enough evidence in here to get their Congressional map thrown out again for being a racial gerrymander, among other things.

Unfortunate if it gets thrown out by SCOTUS for racial gerrymanders which are always of some weird logic, 35% districts are fine in VA but do that in MS and they slap you back. The worst case this decade was the VA state house. I am not gonna deny it was a gerrymander but its incredibly unfair one map gets thrown out racial gerrymandering but the Democrat State senate one doesn't because its not "racial".The VA state house map was supported the black caucus seeking a bipartisan gerrymander.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #221 on: September 07, 2019, 02:16:29 pm »

Just because black incumbents in search of safe seats in primaries supported a racial gerrymander does not make minority groups any less represented. Still, it would be nice if they didn't provide votes to the Republicans so often in these cases.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #222 on: September 07, 2019, 04:02:22 pm »

Just because black incumbents in search of safe seats in primaries supported a racial gerrymander does not make minority groups any less represented. Still, it would be nice if they didn't provide votes to the Republicans so often in these cases.

They tend to do it when they know a democratic map is impossible and republicans have the initiative, so why not hop on and get rewarded. We just saw a lot of that in 2010 because the GOP held so many of the states where stuff like this could have occurred.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #223 on: September 07, 2019, 05:15:10 pm »

This should be where we stand going into 2021 redistricting, assuming this decision also gets applied to the NC congressional districts.  Green = significant restrictions on legislature, Yellow = completely independent process



Notes:

CT+ME: 2/3rds of legislature needed to pass a map
OH: partisan maps expire after 4 years instead of 10
KY: state constitution prohibits splitting counties unnecessarily (so cannot gerrymander KY-03)
NY+UT: commission proposes map that legislature can amend within certain limits


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Badger
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« Reply #224 on: September 07, 2019, 11:58:09 pm »

This should be where we stand going into 2021 redistricting, assuming this decision also gets applied to the NC congressional districts.  Green = significant restrictions on legislature, Yellow = completely independent process



Notes:

CT+ME: 2/3rds of legislature needed to pass a map
OH: partisan maps expire after 4 years instead of 10
KY: state constitution prohibits splitting counties unnecessarily (so cannot gerrymander KY-03)
NY+UT: commission proposes map that legislature can amend within certain limits




You've correctly noted the restrictions in Ohio, but I would not deem them significant.
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