Gravis Marketing(Arizona Senate Race): Sinema+4 against McSally

[Zaybay]

Matchup:
Sinema(D)- 43%
McSally(R)- 39%

Sinema(D)- 46%
Ward(R)- 37%

Sinema(D)- 52%
Arpaio(R)- 33%

R Primary Numbers:
McSally- 36%
Ward- 27%
Arpaio- 24%

Trump Approval:
46/50

Writeup:https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Gravis_Arizona_July_3_2018_1.pdf

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

All hail Sinema!

[Hindsight was 2020]

Sinema with an okay lead in LOLGravis shows how well this race is going

[Arkansas Yankee]

Sinema with an okay lead in LOLGravis shows how well this race is going

That only assumes Republicans do not start to unite behind McSally afteR the primary.  If they do this poll leans the race to toss up, as Sinema is not in the high 40s.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah, if Gravis has her ahead, the race is slipping away

[IceSpear]

But Atlas told me that bashing Chuck Schumer in Politico articles would keep her up double digits forever!

[TarHeelDem]

I find it highly amusing that some pundits still have this as Toss-Up instead of Lean (or at least Tilt) D.

[Arkansas Yankee]

I find it highly amusing that some pundits still have this as Toss-Up instead of Lean (or at least Tilt) D.

A pundit who believed the race was D +4 might rate it toss-up to await post primary movement of Republicans.

A pundit who believed the race was D +8 might well rate it as lilt or lean D.

I do not see anything amusing here.  There is just a different view of the current state of the race.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's still Lean D, but Gov race is a second tier pickup, next to GA, Iowa and MD

[Arkansas Yankee]

It's still Lean D, but Gov race is a second tier pickup, next to GA, Iowa and MD

I will quibble with you. But don’t knock folks who want to wait and see how the post primary voting trends.

In fact the Arizona Governor and Senate races will mos likely flow in tandem to one party or the other.

[UWS]

At last McSally is gaining to Sinema and it seems that this race is more competitive than expected.

[Zaybay]

Updated the numbers to have both Kelli Ward and Joe Arpaio

Also, Im starting to think Arpaio is a plant by the Rs to split the primary vote so McSally can win. There is no other reason for him to be here other than ego, and he must know that he cant run for reelection.

[UncleSam]

Predictable tightening as the R primary begins to look decided.

[Zaybay]

At last McSally is gaining to Sinema and it seems that this race is more competitive than expected.

Predictable tightening as the R primary begins to look decided.

Guys, this is the only Gravis poll of this race, there is nothing to compare it to. You cant compare polls by different pollsters and say "look, theres movement!". There has been no general trend seen throughout all polls either. This is just one data point.

Also, that R primary is pretty split, but seems decided. Only 18% undecided. If Ward can get a second wind, its hers, but it seems like McSally will win in the end.

[OneJ]

It's just one poll and you guys are already saying that it's tightening.

And then it's a Gravis poll. Not saying that it's wrong, but y'all should know better than to put all of your trust into Gravis.

[MT Treasurer]

It's just one poll and you guys are already saying that it's tightening.

And then it's a Gravis poll. Not saying that it's wrong, but y'all should know better than to put all of your trust into Gravis.

Gravis polls are great when they confirm my preconceived narrative, junk if not.

I agree that they’re not very trustworthy, especially in certain states like MT or FL. This poll seems to be a little too R-friendly, but I don’t think they’re biased in favor of Republicans in general (which should be obvious when you take a look at some of their previous FL/MT/WV/etc. polls), and their TX numbers are believable, I guess (although the Senate numbers might be a little too R-friendly).

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

It's just one poll and you guys are already saying that it's tightening.

And then it's a Gravis poll. Not saying that it's wrong, but y'all should know better than to put all of your trust into Gravis.

Gravis polls are great when they confirm my preconceived narrative, junk if not.

I agree that they’re not very trustworthy, especially in certain states like MT or FL. This poll seems to be a little too R-friendly, but I don’t think they’re biased in favor of Republicans in general (which should be obvious when you take a look at some of their previous FL/MT/WV/etc. polls), and their TX numbers are believable, I guess (although the Senate numbers might be a little too R-friendly).

Gravis isn't really biased (they had Saccone up by 12 at one point, but have Kathleen up by 6 in Montana and had Donnelly up by 15 vs Rotika).... they're just really really bad.

[Zaybay]

It's just one poll and you guys are already saying that it's tightening.

And then it's a Gravis poll. Not saying that it's wrong, but y'all should know better than to put all of your trust into Gravis.

Gravis polls are great when they confirm my preconceived narrative, junk if not.

I agree that they’re not very trustworthy, especially in certain states like MT or FL. This poll seems to be a little too R-friendly, but I don’t think they’re biased in favor of Republicans in general (which should be obvious when you take a look at some of their previous FL/MT/WV/etc. polls), and their TX numbers are believable, I guess (although the Senate numbers might be a little too R-friendly).

Gravis isn't really biased (they had Saccone up by 12 at one point, but have Kathleen up by 6 in Montana and had Donnelly up by 15 vs Rotika).... they're just really really bad.

I think Gravis is a hit/miss pollster. These rating for AZ look pretty close to what we have been seeing in other polling, while the TX numbers, especially the senate, appear to be poor. Im sorry, there is no way that Abbott and Cruz are preforming exactly the same and Beto and Valdez are under preforming the exact same. Nothing else reflects this.

[Webnicz]

Correct me if I’m wrong but I read the cross tabs and the poll says Kelli ward leads with Hispanics, and Ducey leads with African Americans??

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Ducey is losing in AZ, this is a sign of a wave, due to Latino vote😀, and Sinema, has maintained her lead eventhough it's close

[Thunder98]

Correct me if I’m wrong but I read the cross tabs and the poll says Kelli ward leads with Hispanics, and Ducey leads with African Americans??

Gravis is pure junk

[IceSpear]

Correct me if I’m wrong but I read the cross tabs and the poll says Kelli ward leads with Hispanics, and Ducey leads with African Americans??

Gravis is pure junk

Indeed. It is LITERALLY.IMPOSSIBLE. that Unbeatable Titan Kyrsten Sinema and Unelectable Weak Candidate Jacky Rosen are ahead by the same amount.