WV-PPP: Manchin +7 without Blankenship, +11 with Blankenship

[ON Progressive]

No Blankenship:
Manchin 49
Morrissey 42

With Blankenship:
Manchin 46
Morrissey 35
Blankenship 11

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DgyShkYVMAE8_EU.jpg:large

If/when a PDF or something comes out for the full poll, I'll edit to include that.

[ON Progressive]

Manchin's favorables in this poll (39-48) are worrying. Of course, Morrisey's are worse (30-44) but not a great sign.

25% of Clinton voters in WV have an unfavourable opinion of Manchin in this poll, so that explains a part of it.

[ON Progressive]

Jenkins would have done a lot better. Jenkins isn’t a carpetbagger like Morrissey is, and he would make it significantly harder for Manchin to run up the score where he needs to (Southern WV)

[ON Progressive]

Jenkins would have done a lot better. Jenkins isn’t a carpetbagger like Morrissey is, and he would make it significantly harder for Manchin to run up the scorew where he needs to (Southern WV)

 I agree
E
But the whole WV party structure backed him.  Why?

It seems Morrissey has the stupid GOP TENDENCY to fool with Social Security and Medicare.  I think all wages should be subject to SS AND Medicare taxes.  But I also think there has to be some reform or the system will collapse.  But I figure I do not want to be hit by Democrats for trying to reform.  We always loose. Just let it collapse, then reform.   Or maybe it won’t collapse. Republicans should stay away from this issue.  Jenkins understood this I think.

Then there is Cruz backing Morrisssey.  If Cruz is backing him, you know he is probably too conservative for WV. 

Capito must know Morrissey is too conservative and a carpetbagger.  I do not know why she went along with him.

Also, Morrissey’s personality reminds me of a mouse.

But I would still support the mouse.

why? would you vote for any democrat?

He literally supported Roy Moore, so the answer is no.

[ON Progressive]

Is there any circumstances that might cause Manchin to bolt, if he is re-elected? By bolt I mean change party affiliation.  

Few

What are the few?

One option I see is that if West Virginia becomes notably less open to voting for downballot Democrats in 2024, which for as downhill as it has gone for Democrats even now, it would have to be relatively big shift. I don't know whether Manchin would want to do that though, but it wouldn't be hard to rationalize to himself.

The problem with this is that Manchin is 70 years old, and he'll be ~76 when his seat comes up again. It is very reasonable to think that he might retire then, at which point Republicans will likely pick up his seat anyway.

If he gets re-elected, it's very likely his last term. There were quite a bit of rumors about him retiring this cycle, after all.