WV-PPP: Manchin +7 without Blankenship, +11 with Blankenship

[Virginiá]

Before you open the Champaign remember Wisconsin 2016.

lmbo what does that have to with anything? Wisconsin had a Republican incumbent that won. If anything, you're just bolstering the case for Manchin - incumbent Senators have a much easier time, especially when the wind is at their backs. But no, I imagine what you're saying is people had thought Feingold would win, but he didn't, but your example is completely incompatible with that point you're trying to make.

This whole "but 2016" stuff is getting tiresome.

[Virginiá]

Is there any circumstances that might cause Manchin to bolt, if he is re-elected? By bolt I mean change party affiliation.  

Few

What are the few?

One option I see is that if West Virginia becomes notably less open to voting for downballot Democrats in 2024, which for as downhill as it has gone for Democrats even now, it would have to be relatively big shift. I don't know whether Manchin would want to do that though, but it wouldn't be hard to rationalize to himself.

The problem with this is that Manchin is 70 years old, and he'll be ~76 when his seat comes up again. It is very reasonable to think that he might retire then, at which point Republicans will likely pick up his seat anyway.