2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please

[Zaybay]

Wow, the Siena poll was super off. What a surprise, I thought they had great methodology.

They are both within the MOE and are entirely consistent with just pure random sampling error (not to mention they were conducted at different times, the Monmouth poll being conducted more recently when Dems have been going up recently in the GCB).

No it isnt! Its a 10 point difference(remember the Siena poll was an LV sample), which is outside the MOE givin. And its only been 2 weeks, I doubt the race has shifted that much.

The MOEs for the two polls are independent, silly rabbit. The Siena and Monmouth polls are both entirely consistent with the race being a tie. If there is one thing I would have hoped would be clearer to everyone now that we have all observed the NYT/Siena polls for a bit, polls are not precise things.

And yes, public GCB polls have shifted in the past two weeks, even on 538 which has a pretty trend-resistant model. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/

Im not going to get into this again, but there is no evidence the race is a tie, most evidence(GCB, approvals of both Faso and the president) point to the Monmouth poll being closer, and Ive already harped on Siena's style of polling.

You cant just take a poll at face value. Siena does this every year, and I am used to them overestimating incumbents. Look at 2014, 2010, 2006, 2008, and 2016 to see what I mean. Ive been on political teams that have openly dismissed Siena because of this.

To be fair to Siena, their October/November polls have been very good in the past. Any polls before that have had massive incumbent advantages though.

Yeah I totally agree. You will see me not harping on them in October.

[Virginiá]

New megathread was merged/created due to this one almost reaching capacity

New thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=302399