2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please

[GeorgiaModerate]

Remember when the numb nuts over at 538 created a special model only for North Carolina using their Upshot Siena polling and state of the art data that showed Hillary would easily win NC in 2016:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html

This looks like another one of their flunky junk models. 538 should just shut down already

Um.... you are conflating the NYTimes and 538. But sure, let's just not try anything new cause the polls were kinda off once.

Don't confuse him with facts.

[junior chįmp]

Remember when the numb nuts over at 538 created a special model only for North Carolina using their Upshot Siena polling and state of the art data that showed Hillary would easily win NC in 2016:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html

This looks like another one of their flunky junk models. 538 should just shut down already

You realize this new NYT thing has nothing to do with 538, right?

Nate Cohn designed both models using the same Upshot Siena data/polling.

[MT Treasurer]

Wow, it’s really close everywhere right now. No, I’m not addicted to this. No.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Right now:
KY-06:
McGrath - 47%
Barr - 44%

MN-08:
Radinovich - 45%
Stauber - 38%

IL-12:
Bost - 44%
Kelly - 43%

IL-06:
Roskam - 45%
Casten - 45%

CA-48:
Rouda - 45%
Rohrabacher - 44%

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Was hoping McGrath was going to a lot higher... anyways, I do fully expect her to win the election.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Holy sh**t. 49% of people in KY-06 actually believe "discrimination" against whites has become as bad a problem as blacks...

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I feel like these polls are going to need their own megathread.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I feel like these polls are going to need their own megathread.

No. They have Barr leading McGrath by one. They're trash.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I feel like these polls are going to need their own megathread.

Seems pretty likely if they are going to be doing 5 of these every day.

[bilaps]

I feel like these polls are going to need their own megathread.

No. They have Barr leading McGrath by one. They're trash.

lol

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

KY-06:
Barr - 47%
McGrath - 44%

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Start posting stuff about the NYT/Siena polls in the other thread for now?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=300872.0

[Devils30]

Upshot also gave Trump a bigger lead in Florida while messing up in NC

[psychprofessor]

wow in all the small sample sizes so far all GOP incumbents below 50% and most with higher unfavorables than favorables...yikes

[Ebsy]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1037919231432699904

Obviously small n poll but interesting nonetheless.

[IceSpear]

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1037708285770719235

Notice the pundits will move a race to lean R any time some random internal shows a Republican ahead, but I bet they won't move a single one of these.

[IceSpear]

Holy sh**t. 49% of people in KY-06 actually believe "discrimination" against whites has become as bad a problem as blacks...

If anything that number should be higher in that seat. Something like 45% of the country believes that. There was a poll a few months ago on such

There's that 45% number again...

[Strong Candidate]

MN-01
Harper Polling (Hagedorn internal)
400 Likely Voters

Jim Hagedorn (R)-47
Dan Feehan (D)-33

MOE +/- 4.9%

http://www.keyc.com/story/39041618/new-poll-has-hagedorn-ahead-of-feehan

I'm skeptical, but Hagedorn's name recognition probably does give him an edge right now, even if he does end up losing.

[wesmoorenerd]

MN-01
Harper Polling (Hagedorn internal)
400 Likely Voters

Jim Hagedorn (R)-47
Dan Feehan (D)-33

MOE +/- 4.9%

http://www.keyc.com/story/39041618/new-poll-has-hagedorn-ahead-of-feehan

I'm skeptical, but Hagedorn's name recognition probably does give him an edge right now, even if he does end up losing.

LOL

[Zaybay]

MN-01
Harper Polling (Hagedorn internal)
400 Likely Voters

Jim Hagedorn (R)-47
Dan Feehan (D)-33

MOE +/- 4.9%

http://www.keyc.com/story/39041618/new-poll-has-hagedorn-ahead-of-feehan

I'm skeptical, but Hagedorn's name recognition probably does give him an edge right now, even if he does end up losing.

.....Yeah Im skeptical, though its possible that MN-01 and MN-08 are safer than we think

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

MN-01
Harper Polling (Hagedorn internal)
400 Likely Voters

Jim Hagedorn (R)-47
Dan Feehan (D)-33

MOE +/- 4.9%

http://www.keyc.com/story/39041618/new-poll-has-hagedorn-ahead-of-feehan

I'm skeptical, but Hagedorn's name recognition probably does give him an edge right now, even if he does end up losing.

.....Yeah Im skeptical, though its possible that MN-01 and MN-08 are safer than we think

I mean Hagedorn is probably favored, but not by 14 especially with Walz at the top.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

MN-01
Harper Polling (Hagedorn internal)
400 Likely Voters

Jim Hagedorn (R)-47
Dan Feehan (D)-33

MOE +/- 4.9%

http://www.keyc.com/story/39041618/new-poll-has-hagedorn-ahead-of-feehan

I'm skeptical, but Hagedorn's name recognition probably does give him an edge right now, even if he does end up losing.

.....Yeah Im skeptical, though its possible that MN-01 and MN-08 are safer than we think

I mean Hagedorn is probably favored, but not by 14 especially with Walz at the top.

I believe it. The DFL's undeserved contempt for the outstate has been clear lately.

[Wiz in Wis]

Remember when the numb nuts over at 538 created a special model only for North Carolina using their Upshot Siena polling and state of the art data that showed Hillary would easily win NC in 2016:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html

This looks like another one of their flunky junk models. 538 should just shut down already

You realize this new NYT thing has nothing to do with 538, right?

Nate Cohn designed both models using the same Upshot Siena data/polling.

For the record, I'm pretty sure that Nate Cohn and Nate Silver are DIFFERENT HUMAN BEINGS.

[ON Progressive]

MN-01
Harper Polling (Hagedorn internal)
400 Likely Voters

Jim Hagedorn (R)-47
Dan Feehan (D)-33

MOE +/- 4.9%

http://www.keyc.com/story/39041618/new-poll-has-hagedorn-ahead-of-feehan

I'm skeptical, but Hagedorn's name recognition probably does give him an edge right now, even if he does end up losing.

.....Yeah Im skeptical, though its possible that MN-01 and MN-08 are safer than we think

I mean Hagedorn is probably favored, but not by 14 especially with Walz at the top.

I believe it. The DFL's undeserved contempt for the outstate has been clear lately.

Which is why they nominated an outstate congressman for Governor instead of a Twin Cities state rep or AG from the Twin Cities suburbs while the GOP nominated a Hennepin County commissioner.

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1037744926430244864