This deserves its own comment...
Sinema is beating McSally in Maricopa County 53-36%
Interestingly enough, the poll shows that WARD does the best amongst all three in the county, losing by only 40-50%
Arpaio, unsurprisingly, loses it 31-61%
That's the race then. Sinema has a base from her house seat in Suburban Maricopa, and plenty of prior name rec in Phoenix over the Tuscon based McSally. If Sinema is over 50 in a lean/tilt R county that has a majority of the states population, she wins. Period. Even if nearly all the undecideds are Republicans who are pissed with McSally and are voting for Wrad/Arpaio and will come together post-primary, Sinema still probably wins. I definitely think this seat is going to snap right to Lean D in all the professional ratings post-primary.