AZ - NBC/Marist: Sinema +10/+11/+25 McSally +2 in Primary

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

I would guess a big reason for the GOP's swift collapse in AZ is that unlike other states, the AZGOP coalition is a virtual monoculture, almost entirely based on well-to-do suburban whites/retirees in the Phoenix and Tucson metros. Maricopa County (Phoenix) is 62% of the state's population, and Pima County (Tucson) is another 15%. That leaves less than a quarter of the state's population outside the primary metros, and even in that small portion, much of the population is Hispanics in border areas or Native American reservations. Simply put, if the AZGOP starts bombing with wealthy white suburbanites (as polls and special elections including AZ-08 have indicated they will), there's just nowhere else in the state they can make up those votes from. They're just ed. Compare that to Pennsylvania, where the PAGOP bombed with wealthy white suburbanites in SEPA and Pittsburgh but were able to make that up from the small, blue collar metros like Scranton and the Lehigh Valley and fairly well-populated (at least compared to AZ) rural areas, because PA is not nearly as centralized population-wise as AZ is, and I don't think any other state is. Because of this, a nationwide decline for the GOP with a specific group can be greatly magnified in Arizona, and I think that is what will happen.