NM-Survey USA/KOB: Lujan Grisham +13
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Author Topic: NM-Survey USA/KOB: Lujan Grisham +13  (Read 1032 times)
ON Progressive
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« on: June 25, 2018, 08:51:22 PM »
« edited: June 25, 2018, 09:50:07 PM by ON Progressive »
Lujan Grisham (D) 51
Pearce (R) 38

http://amp.kob.com/albuquerque-news/lujan-grisham-widens-lead-over-pearce-in-new-poll/4963872/
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1 on: June 25, 2018, 08:51:37 PM »
Weak Lean D.
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BundouYMB
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« Reply #2 on: June 25, 2018, 09:20:44 PM »
That's +15...
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GM Team Member and Senator WB
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« Reply #3 on: June 25, 2018, 09:22:06 PM »
Strong lean to weak likely D since idk the pollster
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BundouYMB
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« Reply #4 on: June 25, 2018, 09:22:49 PM »
Quote from: Representative Weatherboy1102 on June 25, 2018, 09:22:06 PM
Strong lean to weak likely D since idk the pollster

You've never heard of Survey USA? How long have you been following politics?
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GM Team Member and Senator WB
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« Reply #5 on: June 25, 2018, 09:26:49 PM »
Quote from: BundouYMB on June 25, 2018, 09:22:49 PM
Quote from: Representative Weatherboy1102 on June 25, 2018, 09:22:06 PM
Strong lean to weak likely D since idk the pollster

You've never heard of Survey USA? How long have you been following politics?
Oops, only saw KOB.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #6 on: June 25, 2018, 09:31:38 PM »
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Zaybay
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« Reply #7 on: June 25, 2018, 09:32:34 PM »
This is very likely D, and the Democrat has already passed the magic 50%.
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GM Team Member and Senator WB
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« Reply #8 on: June 25, 2018, 09:35:08 PM »
Yeah, likely D.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #9 on: June 25, 2018, 09:35:19 PM »
okay yeah this is Likely D i apologize for doubting how bad of a candidate Pearce is.
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CityofSinners
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« Reply #10 on: June 25, 2018, 09:49:14 PM »
This feels more in line with the  fundamentals. Pearce is trying to succeed a somewhat unpopular 2term republican governor in a blue state during a likely blue wave year.
Considering how badly Pearce lost in his last statewide race in 2008, I never understood why some people rated this as only Lean D.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #11 on: June 26, 2018, 01:30:13 AM »
Likely D -> Safe D.
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ajc0918
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« Reply #12 on: June 26, 2018, 10:16:52 AM »
Could she carry the NM-2 dem across?
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #13 on: June 26, 2018, 10:20:27 AM »
Quote from: Maxwell on June 25, 2018, 09:35:19 PM
okay yeah this is Likely D i apologize for doubting how bad of a candidate Pearce is.

It's amazing how bad Pearce's political instincts are too. He loves to run for statewide offices when he is least likely to win. Running for Senate in the 2008 Dem wave, and now running for governor when the outgoing Republican incumbent is rather unpopular in a Dem-leaning environment.
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Galaxie
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« Reply #14 on: June 26, 2018, 10:29:12 AM »
Quote from: ajc0918 on June 26, 2018, 10:16:52 AM
Could she carry the NM-2 dem across?

God I hope so.

#AllBlueNM
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #15 on: June 26, 2018, 12:18:29 PM »
Quote from: ajc0918 on June 26, 2018, 10:16:52 AM
Could she carry the NM-2 dem across?

MLG leads by 4 in CD1, by 11 in CD2 and by 22 in CD3.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c167021b-46f6-4423-a92e-cafedfdf2276

But that's meaningless in a state sample of just 535 Likely Voters.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #16 on: June 26, 2018, 02:08:33 PM »
Wait, people here actually thought this race would be competitive? LMAO.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #17 on: June 26, 2018, 05:29:00 PM »
Quote from: IceSpear on June 26, 2018, 02:08:33 PM
Wait, people here actually thought this race would be competitive? LMAO.

I thought Lujan Grisham was going to win but by an underwhelming margin because i got a sense that her campaign was just assuming she had already won (that would be beating Pearce, who is toxic statewide because he's a toxic person, by high single digits even though Tom Udall vanquished Pearce by over 20 points), but it looks like even running a campaign going through the motions it looks like Pearce is going to be thrashed.
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Xing
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« Reply #18 on: June 26, 2018, 05:36:50 PM »
Likely D, bordering on Safe D. Not sure whether this or Illinois is a more secure pick-up for the Democrats.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #19 on: June 26, 2018, 05:51:45 PM »
Quote from: xīngkěruì on June 26, 2018, 05:36:50 PM
Likely D, bordering on Safe D. Not sure whether this or Illinois is a more secure pick-up for the Democrats.

There's more uncertainty with Illinois considering how toxic Pritzker is. More shoes dropping with him seems inevitable.

I don't see any way Pearce wins, short of 2018 becoming a massive Republican wave and/or Lujan Grisham being a pedophile.
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