WV-Monmouth: Manchin +9, Ojeda leads in WV-3

[Sir Mohamed]

At least lean D, just like I said months ago. Joe Manchin is Mr. West Virginia and he's not losing this race.

[mencken]

Funny how Cook and Sabato just change their ratings to reflect the poll.

Not really funny at all if you think about it. It took them til this week to move VA-10 to Lean D even though it should’ve been clear since the 2017 elections that Comstock is a dead woman walking

It's always going to be about the ratings with the two of them (and others). No doubt many readers would like to read about 30+ tossups rather than only a few with control of any House decided.

Care to go on record as to which House races currently rating as tossups are already decided? (I apologize if you have done this already)

[TheSaint250]

Funny how Cook and Sabato just change their ratings to reflect the poll.

Not really funny at all if you think about it. It took them til this week to move VA-10 to Lean D even though it should’ve been clear since the 2017 elections that Comstock is a dead woman walking

It's always going to be about the ratings with the two of them (and others). No doubt many readers would like to read about 30+ tossups rather than only a few with control of any House decided.

Care to go on record as to which House races currently rating as tossups are already decided? (I apologize if you have done this already)

Sorry, I don't mean to say that many are decided, just rather that placing more and more races as lean/likely one way is not as appealing to readers than still seeing a large number of tossups on the last day.

[mencken]

Funny how Cook and Sabato just change their ratings to reflect the poll.

Not really funny at all if you think about it. It took them til this week to move VA-10 to Lean D even though it should’ve been clear since the 2017 elections that Comstock is a dead woman walking

It's always going to be about the ratings with the two of them (and others). No doubt many readers would like to read about 30+ tossups rather than only a few with control of any House decided.

Care to go on record as to which House races currently rating as tossups are already decided? (I apologize if you have done this already)

Sorry, I don't mean to say that many are decided, just rather that placing more and more races as lean/likely one way is not as appealing to readers than still seeing a large number of tossups on the last day.

Ok then, which races are placed as tossups that should really be lean/likely?

[Dr. MB]

I really don’t give a flying f**k who voted Kasich or Trump or even goddamn Ted Cruz.

Records matter, not endorsements. I don’t expect someone like IceSpear to change their position (generally because of his well-known loathing for the state) but I feel it’s ridiculous to care about this when (a) it’s literally toxic to support Clinton in Logan County and (b) he’s admitted he made a mistake.

[IceSpear]

I really don’t give a flying f**k who voted Kasich or Trump or even goddamn Ted Cruz.

Records matter, not endorsements. I don’t expect someone like IceSpear to change their position (generally because of his well-known loathing for the state) but I feel it’s ridiculous to care about this when (a) it’s literally toxic to support Clinton in Logan County and (b) he’s admitted he made a mistake.

Manchin enthusiastically supported Hillary and he's leading in the district by more than Ojeda is. Explain that one.

Just like the Pelosi stuff, it's nothing more than kowtowing to a GOP narrative because it ostensibly helps you politically when in reality nobody cares, except maybe partisan hacks who are already locked in votes anyway. Republicans never disavowed their toxic Congressional leaders and paid no price for it. Republicans never nominated an Obama supporter in heavily Democratic districts and paid no price for it. Why? They're smart enough to know nobody cares about this sh**t.

[ON Progressive]

I really don’t give a flying f**k who voted Kasich or Trump or even goddamn Ted Cruz.

Records matter, not endorsements. I don’t expect someone like IceSpear to change their position (generally because of his well-known loathing for the state) but I feel it’s ridiculous to care about this when (a) it’s literally toxic to support Clinton in Logan County and (b) he’s admitted he made a mistake.

Manchin enthusiastically supported Hillary and he's leading in the district by more than Ojeda is. Explain that one.

Just like the Pelosi stuff, it's nothing more than kowtowing to a GOP narrative because it ostensibly helps you politically when in reality nobody cares, except maybe partisan hacks who are already locked in votes anyway. Republicans never disavowed their toxic Congressional leaders and paid no price for it. Republicans never nominated an Obama supporter in heavily Democratic districts and paid no price for it. Why? They're smart enough to know nobody cares about this sh**t.

Manchin is an incumbent who has been elected statewide 5 times, and was a very popular governor. Ojeda, OTOH, is a first term state senator who doesn’t have a lot of name rec (most of the district doesn’t even know who he is).

Also, Ojeda isn’t a Trump supporter considering he regrets his vote for Trump now.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I really could care less if Ojeda somehow still backed Trump anyway - that's very forgivable in this slice of coal country. What matters is whether he's walking the walk, like supporting the striking teachers, etc. We need more people like Ojeda.

[Suburban Republican]

Monmouth is a solid polling agency (538 gives them an A+). I'm tempted to move WV-SEN into the Lean D column.

As for the WV-03 race, I'm stumped. 53% of respondents have no opinion on Ojeda, so I guess we'll just wait and see how the race evolves.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Monmouth is a solid polling agency (538 gives them an A+). I'm tempted to move WV-SEN into the Lean D column.

As for the WV-03 race, I'm stumped. 53% of respondents have no opinion on Ojeda, so I guess we'll just wait and see how the race evolves.

the fact he's leading with such low name recognition only spells good things for him, I feel.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Lmao love it that a guy running and winning on Social Democracy in a red state is unacceptable to large swathes of red!Atlas because of a meaningless vote for Cheeto Man in a state that Cheeto Man won by 300,576 other votes.

Keep your symbols, I'll take people power every day.

[TheSaint250]

Funny how Cook and Sabato just change their ratings to reflect the poll.

Not really funny at all if you think about it. It took them til this week to move VA-10 to Lean D even though it should’ve been clear since the 2017 elections that Comstock is a dead woman walking

It's always going to be about the ratings with the two of them (and others). No doubt many readers would like to read about 30+ tossups rather than only a few with control of any House decided.

Care to go on record as to which House races currently rating as tossups are already decided? (I apologize if you have done this already)

Sorry, I don't mean to say that many are decided, just rather that placing more and more races as lean/likely one way is not as appealing to readers than still seeing a large number of tossups on the last day.

Ok then, which races are placed as tossups that should really be lean/likely?

Not sure. I don't focus too heavily on House races.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Any democrat who doesn't understand how valuable having Ojeda in WV-3 would be for the party is a complete and total strategic moron.

And the fact that he was a Trump voter and can with legitimacy make the "he betrayed us" argument adds to that value. 

[Politician]

Any democrat who doesn't understand how valuable having Ojeda in WV-3 would be for the party is a complete and total strategic moron.

And the fact that he was a Trump voter and can with legitimacy make the "he betrayed us" argument adds to that value. 

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Speaking of Manchin, he used the Heimlich maneuver to save Claire McCaskill’s life this weekend apparently

So proud of him and happy that McCaskill is ok! Watch Morrisey try to spin this as assault lol.

[Zaybay]

Any democrat who doesn't understand how valuable having Ojeda in WV-3 would be for the party is a complete and total strategic moron.

And the fact that he was a Trump voter and can with legitimacy make the "he betrayed us" argument adds to that value. 

[Arkansas Yankee]

For you poll critics I just want to remind you Monmouth’s lest National poll in 2016 was Clinton 50 Trump 44.

[ON Progressive]

For you poll critics I just want to remind you Monmouth’s lest National poll in 2016 was Clinton 50 Trump 44.

And Clinton won the national vote 48-46, so that's within the margin of error.

[Politician]

For you poll critics I just want to remind you Monmouth’s lest National poll in 2016 was Clinton 50 Trump 44.

And the final result was Clinton +2. Not that inaccurate. But keep reminding yourself only Rasmussen is a reliable pollster.

[Arkansas Yankee]

For you poll critics I just want to remind you Monmouth’s lest National poll in 2016 was Clinton 50 Trump 44.

And the final result was Clinton +2. Not that inaccurate. But keep reminding yourself only Rasmussen is a reliable pollster.

You really do not understand.  I do not place any faith in any individual pollster.  I tend toward the average.

Many pollsters seem to have some good runs.  But then they will eventually mess up. Often very badly.

Even Zogby had a great run in the 90s.  Now you can hardly pull him out of the ash heap.

My motto is beware pollsters.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

For you poll critics I just want to remind you Monmouth’s lest National poll in 2016 was Clinton 50 Trump 44.

And the final result was Clinton +2. Not that inaccurate. But keep reminding yourself only Rasmussen is a reliable pollster.

You really do not understand.  I do not place any faith in any individual pollster.  I tend toward the average.

Many pollsters seem to have some good runs.  But then they will eventually mess up. Often very badly.

Even Zogby had a great run in the 90s.  Now you can hardly pull him out of the ash heap.

My motto is beware pollsters.

Despite you being you, this is actually a fair point.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

IceSpear, we get that you obsessively hate WV, but give me a break. Ojeda is easily the best democrat we can get in a district like this.

[DINGO Joe]

Ojeda's opponent is a real useless milquetoast Shelley Moore Capito Jr.

https://www.wvgazettemail.com/election_2018/congress_2018/candidates-in-wv-s-rd-district-race-discuss-policy-issues/article_ee748a05-6818-5f07-ab1b-8ee858c48462.html

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She comes off like a pathetic wuss throughout the interview.  Sad.

[GlobeSoc]

Ojeda's opponent is a real useless milquetoast Shelley Moore Capito Jr.

https://www.wvgazettemail.com/election_2018/congress_2018/candidates-in-wv-s-rd-district-race-discuss-policy-issues/article_ee748a05-6818-5f07-ab1b-8ee858c48462.html

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She comes off like a pathetic wuss throughout the interview.  Sad.

Seems like a perfect foil for Ojeda to contrast himself with

[IceSpear]

Republicans made a yuge mistake nominating a woman against Ojeda.