Blusas: Possibility or Pipe Dream?

[ProgressiveModerate]

In 2020, Trump won Kansas by just under 15%. Generally, in American politics, a 15% margin is pretty solid; however, many saw this margin as underwhelming relative to his 2016 margin and the margin of past Republicans. Infact, Trump had the weakest Republican performance in terms of margin since H. W. Bush in 1992, and that was likely due to Perot splitting the R vote.

At face value, many see Kansas as the stereotype of farmland Republican conservativism. So how was Biden able to garner 43% of the 2 party vote?

While yes, Kansas is a state located in the farmbelt, it's one of those situations where the state is so rural it begins to become urban. Many states in the midwest and south have rural communities that are relatively dense and built up throughout, producing massive margins for Republicans politically and easily outvoting relatively large cities like St. Louis or Memphis.

As one moves to the western part of the state, many counties have under 10 or even 5k people. While these counties vote overwhelmingly for Trump, it's not a huge of a boost as it may seem due to how relatively unpopulated these counties are.

Infact, half of Trump's votes in 2020 came from just 7 counties; Johnson, Sedgwick, Shawnee, Butler, Leavenworth, Wyandotte, and Reno. 3 of these coutnies he lost in 2020. Half of Biden's 2020 votes on the other hand came from just 2 counties: Johnson and Sedgewick, even though he only won them by a collective 0.4%. Overall, half of Kansas's population lives in jujst 4 counties according to the 2020 census (Johnson, Sedgewick, Shawnee, and Wayndotte).

That's not to say these rural counties don't matter in terms of votes; they provide Republicans with a very solid and reliable floor that has been hard for Democrats to overcome. With that said, most of these rural counties are shrinking relative to the state as a whole and overall, making the floor go down a bit each year, however, polarization makes it more secure.

When people talk about Blusas, it seems as if they often talk specifically about highly populated suburban Johnson County where Democrats have made massive gains in recent years and still seem to have room to gain. However, people tend to ignore the 2nd largest County; Sedgewick, where Democratic gains have been more modest. In order for Democrats to flip the state, finding a way to at least come close in Sedgewick County and eradicating the votes it nets the GOP would be key. Another underrated area is the Southeast corner of Kansas which is relatively dense, working class rural communities which have shifted right over the past decade simillar to what we've seen in much of the midwest. In 2020, many of these counties net Trump a few thousand votes which really does matter in the gran scheme of things in a state like Kansas.

For reference, in 2020 pres, Trump won Kansas by about 200k votes. Even being generous to Dems and say they net 100k votes out of Johnson County (cutting the victory in half), finding the remainging 100k votes they need for victory seems tricky. Rural population loss could net them 10k or so, and closing the gap in Sedgewick could net them 20-30k but where do the remaining votes come from, especially if the GOP nets more votes for themselves in the Southeast?

Topeka and Lawrence seem like 2 obvious answers but Topeka's growth really hasn't been that solid and Lawrence is already likely close to as blue as it can realistically get. Democrats would likely struggle to replicate Kelly's performance in rural areas on the federal level without dramatic re-alignment, so where do these votes come from?

Imo, I def think KS can get closer, but to me rn, it's unclear how federal Dems can get across the finish line in a normal year.

Also; as an extension, are there any other states that you think could turn blue for simillar reasonsoning. The most obvious answer to many may be NE as it's very simillar demographically and geographically to Kansas, but has voted a few points to it's right meaning it'd likely take a bit longer for Nebraska to become competative.

[bagelman]

Won't happen specifically because of the name "Blusas"

Serious answer is the potential of another dust bowl due to aquifer depletion is a major wildcard in the region. But there is some evidence that even in the face of climate disasters, Republicans will still vote for global warming denialists over Democrats. The city of Paradise CA was largely razed by wildfire, but the city swung towards Trump 2020 even though Trumpist Republicans deny the existence of global climate change which has been making wildfires worse in the region. Yes, they may have razed our city and killed our people, but at least they aren't gosh durn libruls.

Another potential source of Democratic voters are Latin Americans in the southwest part of the state, a region usually totally uncompetitive just like the Texas panhandle. But if the Latino vote continues backslidding in the face of Republican machismo politics similar to right wing Latin American parties, then that won't work out.

Wichita is a western city that has more in common with places like Springfield MO then with Kansas City, and that stifles its Democrat trends greatly compared to Johnson County. But the Democratic trends are real, and who knows what the future will bring. Big population growth in the western metro of KC could eventually be enough...

[Skill and Chance]

I think it's the best Dem medium-run opportunity in the country, frankly, and the next best after NC even in the short run.

Nebraska also looks promising for Dems, and there's the opportunity to snag another EV even without winning statewide. 

[PSOL]

Not happening for a decade