Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein (user search)
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  Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein (search mode)
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Author Topic: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein  (Read 173622 times)
Skill and Chance
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« on: September 30, 2022, 07:08:09 PM »

That is to say, none of this has really affected the demographic composition of the Right's support, which looks as non-traditional and #trendz-based as ever. The CDX once again absolutely tanked in wealthy urban areas.

To add to Al's point, the one thing that really stands out for Italy to be a "muh trendz" country is the South. If you looked at Al's maps North of Molise, then yeah, you could easily make the case that Italy is basically aligning on the same basic electoral geography as the rest of Europe, with only a few ancestral remnants of the old order here and there. The South completely throws that narrative out the window, though. The right's results are well below average almost everywhere there, even in areas that were historically very right-wing! In relative terms, the right was significantly stronger there back in 2013.

Well, the big complication in Italy is M5S and whether it should really be considered Left or Other.  Imagine the US had the Andrew Yang UBI Party randomly winning a bunch of House and Senate seats in Appalachia while in the rest of the country, wealthy suburbs still swung to Biden and working class areas swung to Trump.  It seems more likely to me that M5S prevented an FdI landslide than prevented the left coalition from winning narrowly. 
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #1 on: September 30, 2022, 11:19:13 PM »
« Edited: September 30, 2022, 11:30:45 PM by Skill and Chance »

Again. Humor me as the ignorant but curious person here but what will this likely mean? What’s on the table? Do we have enough information to determine what they are going do?

We don't, no. We can safely assume she'll do some pretty heinous stuff, but speculating on what exactly is a fool's errand. Meloni is very right-wing, but she's also shown a lot of pragmatism and seems to be going out of her way to reassure the EU, so in terms of social policy she will probably choose her battlefields carefully.

Also, most of the stuff you cited are very America-specific issues that aren't even discussed in Italy at all. The Italian right bears some similarity with the US right, but not nearly that much.


When does Meloni take over? I remember it took like three months to decide on Conte after 2018 but with such as big win it might be different?

It shouldn't take nearly as long, unless the rift with Salvini gets a lot worse than it looks right now. The right-wing parties have already agreed to govern together long before the elections, so all that's left to do now is hash out the details of who gets what. By contrast, M5S and Lega were starting from scratch in 2018 and needed time to feel each other out on pretty much everything.

One symbolic but important thing to consider is that we're coming up on the 100-year anniversary of the March on Rome, on October 28. Meloni will probably want to be all set up at least a week before that, so as to avoid any unfortunate parallels.

Thanks for humoring me. Looks like there is going to be some "exciting events" out of Italy, if you use jaichiand's parlance.

Well, we know she questions gay adoption rights and that a regional government her party won control over in 2020 imposed a 7 week limit on abortion.  Something resembling the DeSantis/Youngkin LGBT educational policies also seems pretty likely to happen.  They also want pretty serious immigration restrictions and appear to oppose laws designed to give any special workplace protections to women. 

On the other hand, her party appears to be more moderate than I would have expected on climate change, i.e. they believe there is a meaningful role for government to play in containing it and fighting pollution in general.  Maybe this is just an American bias, though, because a national right wing leader saying the government should be involved in regulating CO2 at all would be unusual here.  I think the Western European right pretty commonly agrees to CO2 regulation.  They are apparently big on nuclear as the solution.

While Italy has its own deep traditions, the social conservatism here really does look equivalent to a US Southern state or Republican presidential nominee, which has been really rare in Western Europe in the last couple of generations (indeed, most of Western Europe absolutely freaked out about it in Poland, etc.).
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