Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

For what it's worth yesterday I was able to speak to a member of the Chamber of Deputies of Lega.
He said that the M5S members of Parliament are the first who privately would like the Constitutional Referendum to fail. (He is against the cut to the number of members of Parliament)



My take on the regions is this:
Veneto - Absolutely Titanium Centre-right
Liguria - Almost Safe Centre-right
Marche - Tossup
Puglia - Tossup
Toscana - Likely Centre-left
Campania - Likely Centre-left
Aosta Valley - ??

My take on the by-elections:
Villafrance di Verona - Absolutely Titanium Centre-right
Sassari - Tossup? Sardinia has been very weird as of lately



P. S. This is my first post here. I don't know how much I will interact with this thread because I kind of have an instinctive distrust for foreigners discussing Italian politics. To be fair I also have an instinctive distrust for Italians discussing Italian politics. I don't know. The less people mention Salvini or Conte or whomever, the better.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

If this can make you feel safer, I am half Italian on my mother's side and almost a native speaker...I saw the most recent polls, and it seems that Marche Region is instead likely centre-right and Tuscany a tossup with only a slight centre-left leaning tendency...are these polls really reliable? I found them on the governative poll-collecting site www.sondaggipoliticoelettorali.it....sort of rcp polls, only directly owned by the government, from what i see. For what is worth, I have Italian leftist friends worried about Tuscany...anyway,  the polls show that both Fitto and Ceccardi( Apulia and Tuscany centre-right candidates) are in the low 40s...so if many 5S voters decide to go for the left, like they did in Emilia Romagna, victory is all but assured. Don't know why at least in Marche centre-left and M5S aren't running together.

I go to that site frequently but I haven't in days so I had not seen those polls.
Italian regional polls are a bit crappy anyways, but I'll take what we have.

Leftists worried about Tuscany per se should chill out. Yes, Tuscany has always been governed by the left, but that to me is only relatively meaningful. I don't see much difference between, say, losing Apulia but keeping Tuscany, and vice versa. It's not like rightists would cry over themselves if the centre-left won in Lombardy in 2023.

For the M5S thing, Tuscany should be the kind of region where most end up voting centre-left. Apulia, which like all the South has a higher base for them, I don't think so.

They are not always running together because broadly speaking large segments of both parties actually hate the other party's guts.

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In ogni caso, interessante trovare un utente spagnolo che è mezzo italiano e conosce la lingua quasi come una lingua madre.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Campania being safer for the left than Tuscany is something...weird. But I think Vincenzo De Luca personality is what makes the difference...yes, I've seen some of his Covid-related youtube shows.

I just love Vincenzo De Luca. When he speaks he produces gold nuggets constantly. I am glad Campanians seem to think like me.
In Tuscany Susanna Ceccardi is showing to be a better candidate than Lucia Borgonzoni, who was notoriously absent on the campaign trail and seemed like a Salvini sideshow.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Lega has learned from Emilia Romagna - Ceccardi is just as much of a not-quite-cunning extremis as Borgonzoni, but they're hiding it better. Also, Salvini not going around ringing at the door of presumed drug dealers is helping.

Overall, my current predictions are the following:

Veneto - Zaia has already won. The only question is whether Zaia's civic list will get more votes than Lega - Salvini is very much afraid of that. "Fun" fact: center-left candidate and Padua mayor, Lorenzoni, got Covid last week, and is unable to campaign - he collapsed on a live stream only a few days ago.

Liguria - it was supposed to be a tight race, but Toti (center-right) will win easily. This is the only region where PD and M5S field a common candidate, but they only did so at the last second and unconvincingly., and so even though Toti is far from being unbeatable, this is safe center-right.

Marche - "the Italian Ohio", as some newspapers said. But they also said it about Umbria, and it ended up being a landslide for the right. Same here, probably - the right is fielding an Fdi and pretty far-right candidate, but PD and M5S are fielding different candidates, and in a region where M5S has always been pretty strong they simply stand no chance divided.

Campania - solid PD. It's De Luca (PD) vs Caldoro (right) for the third time in a row, they each won once. De Luca has gained even further popularity during the Covid lockdown, and while a few months ago Zingaretti didn't want him as a candidate in order to ally with M5S, now he's thanking God that De Luca exists and will win at least one region for PD.

Puglia - tilt right. Fitto (former governor in the 2000's) seems to have gained traction, while incumbent Emiliano, a populist who has always tried to court M5S and has tried every trick up his sleeve (including paying newly married couples in Puglia a few thousand euros last month), will pay the fact that both M5S and Italia Viva will run separately. Quite ironic that Emiliano might lose because of both M5S, which he has always loved, and Renzi, who he has always loathed.

Tuscany - tilt PD. The peculiar electoral law has already been mentioned, Ceccardi (Lega) too. PD are fielding a weak candidate, Giani, whose only merit is not being the incumbent governor (Rossi, who broke with PD a few years ago). Tuscany has being trending right for years, 6 of the 10 provincial capitals have center-right mayors, but my gut feeling is that the center-left will win by a razor--tight margin.

Val d'Aosta - honestly, no clue. There is no polling whatsoever.

Zaia will win a landslide. Also, I am sure that many voters of Zaia's civic list are normally left-leaning or M5S-leaning voters. Which I suppose is part of what frightens Salvini. The other part is that Zaia is the next-in-line to take his leader seat.

I would like Toti to lose but very likely the polls are not off by that much. I certainly won't vote for him.

I don't know what "Italian Ohio" is supposed to mean, but it was clear from 2018 that Umbria is not a red region anymore, and Marche has actually never been one.

My boy De Luca will win. I wish I were Campanian just to vote for him.

Puglia is weird. The polls are very tight. I don't know much about Emiliano to be honest, I do not exactly follow the news much.

Tuscany has not been trending right, come on. The mayor thing is the product of self-sorting, in 2019 PD took more votes than Lega in Tuscany despite winning only 3 out of 10 provinces.
However given the national advantage for the centre-right currently and the fact that Salvini is not doing stupid stunts like the one in Bologna, there is quite a bit of help for the centre-right, so I agree with your gut feeling.

I have noticed a trend in running former governors as candidates. It does not sound very smart considering they were already beaten once.

What hasn't been mentioned is the constitutional referendum on the reduction of members of the House of deputies (from 630 to 400) and the Senate (from 315 to 200).

This is one of the oldest battles of the M5S - consistently with their claim that politicians are crooks who only steal public money from the people.
M5S and Lega pushed it through quite quickly during their year in government, but it was M5S and PD that eventually pushed it through the finish line, shortly after the start of the Conte II government (almost all of the MPs voted in favour, it must be noted).
PD voted against it 3 times, but then had to accept it as a condition for forming a government with M5S. In exchange, there should have been a new electoral law (proportional), and changes to the rules of both the House and the Senate (as it is, there would be lots of problems in them functioning correctly).
Neither has happened, but nonetheless Zingaretti has decided that the official position of PD should be in favour of the reform, and he got it ratified on monday. This is widely seen as a move to push a strategic alliance with M5S, and many PD members are quite pissed, since PD's position has never been that of reducing MPs without reforming other parts of the Constitution.

Polls were showing a landslide in favour of the reform (90-10 or so), but in the last few weeks it's getting tighter (70-30), as more and more prominent figures (including former PM Prodi and the young movement of the Sardines) are declaring their opposition to it.

I mentioned the referendum in my first post!

My gut feeling is that lots and lots of PD voters (even a majority) will vote No anyway. I will probably vote PD and No, for starters.
My father is convinced that Giorgetti or someone will tell Lega voters to vote No but I have no idea.
Probably Yes will pass anyway.

My European MP Brando Benifei voted against the ratification of Yes as the official PD position apparently. It feels good.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

It'd be a huge kick in the teeth to lose another red region (although I'm actually not as emotionally attached to Tuscany as I am to Umbria), but I'm really happy that De Luca will probably survive. The international left needs a stable of entertaining, transgressive bomb-throwers just as much as the international right does!

Are you emotionally attached to Umbria because of St. Francis of Assisi?

By the way, Umbria (sadly for you) is gone as a red region. Tuscany is not - independently of who wins next week.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

It'd be a huge kick in the teeth to lose another red region (although I'm actually not as emotionally attached to Tuscany as I am to Umbria), but I'm really happy that De Luca will probably survive. The international left needs a stable of entertaining, transgressive bomb-throwers just as much as the international right does!

Are you emotionally attached to Umbria because of St. Francis of Assisi?

And because I've been there and had a wonderful time, whereas I don't have any personal connection or attachment to Tuscany (yet). But, yes, Umbria the cattocomunista land of saints and Peppones (Pepponi?) is part of it too.

By the way, Umbria (sadly for you) is gone as a red region. Tuscany is not - independently of who wins next week.

I know, I saw your above post. I'm still grieving places like Northern New York being gone for the Democrats and most of far northern Honshu being gone for the Japanese center-left, so I'll probably be salty about Umbria for a while as well.

Cattocomunisti =
However Don Camillo and Peppone was set in Emilia-Romagna, not Umbria.
Funnily I have been to Umbria only once in my life - I was five years old and I remember zero.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Well, I'm back! Couldn't miss such a momentous electoral cycle in my home country. Glad there's been a vibrant discussion going on without me, though! Battista, I don't think we've interacted much before, but it's great to have a fellow Italian (and one so knowledgeable) on board to discuss our country's perpetually messed up politics.

Anyway, like Edu, I recently sent out my No ballot, but I'm not getting my hopes up. There's going to be a hard core of right-wingers (and some disaffected anti-M5S lefties) who will bring now up into the 30s or even 40s, but I don't see it being enough to stem the tide of knee-jerk anti-political demagoguery. That's just how Italy rolls...

Seconded everything y'all said about De Luca. The man is a national treasure and I was incredibly relieved to find out he's likely to hang on. If any incumbent this cycle deserves reelection, it's him. I'm also hoping Emiliano can survive, I've always liked the guy. And obviously losing Tuscany would be a massive blow. Oh well. As usual with Italian elections, I'm not optimistic, but I don't want to be all doomer either.

Oooh the King is back!!!

Thank you, Antonio.

By the way, I am going to be a poll worker this year.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Oooh the King is back!!!

Thank you, Antonio.

Oh wow, do I really have such an illustrious reputation? I'm honored! I really haven't given this thread the attention it deserves, even before I left, but I'm hoping to change that in the next few days. It will be a useful distraction from what's happening here.

By the way, I am going to be a poll worker this year.

Oh, congrats!! That's a great commitment, especially right now.

What do you think of the election organization where you are? I've heard that in general things seem to be going fairly well, but it might feel differently on the ground.

There has been a small section of houses in my city which have seen their polling place get moved but I haven't heard of anything else.

Doing all the repetitive poll work while having a mask on the face all day is probably going to be extremely frustrating, but I can't know in advance.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I am always surprised when countries rely on volunteers to run their elections instead of doing like where where poll duties are essencially random and mandatory if you get picked (and if you don't go you get a very heavy and easy to enforce fine)

You do get somme advantages though, notably being paid 60€. If you are one of the few people who work on sundays, you still have to be paid by your employer. If you work the next day, you get the right to get the first 5 hours of your workday off the next day.

In Italy you can choose or not to enroll in "poll worker lists". Poll workers are picked from those lists. At least usually; I imagine that if a certain municipality has not enough people on the lists they just pick random citizens. I'll get paid somewhere around 130€ this year.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

When does the polls close on Sunday and any link to results ?

The polls close at 23 but they are also open on Monday from 7 to 15.

The results will be on a special page of the site of the Ministry of Interior that has not been opened yet.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Well, I think that advocating seat reduction as the remedy for the diseases affecting the political system is a rather simplistic and demagogic approach. That sort of fetishism involving the reduction in size of parliaments or government institutions is not exclusive to the M5S. The seat reduction is not good or bad a priori, it's a matter of proportion. The question is: do 400 deputies and 200 senators ensure an addequate and proportional representation of all regions and territories? I tend to think the proposed size is too small. but I'd like to know the opinion of our Italian friends.

I think somewhat differently. I am not sure that 400 Deputies and 200 Senators is good or bad a priori - although I lean towards the bad side.
However getting there through a seat reduction without anything else, which is not going to cure the ailments of the Italian political system and means first of all making us the people less represented, is idiotic.
Having a round number of members of Parliament is probably the best part of the reform and I'm not joking (well yes, it is also going to save mayyybe 100 million euros each year, but that's literally crumbs for a state like Italy).

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Why can't you just abolish the Senate? What's argument against unicameralism in Italy?

Why should we abolish the Senate? What's the argument for unicameralism in Italy?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Why can't you just abolish the Senate? What's argument against unicameralism in Italy?

Why should we abolish the Senate? What's the argument for unicameralism in Italy?

Presumably the usual arguments about gridlock, contradictory or confused mandates, tendancy to be dispropotionately conservative...

But also, in Italy, what purpose does the senate serve? In federal countries, the upper chamber generally represents the federal subjects against a lower chamber that represents the people; or else, it plays a clearly subordinate role like in France or the UK. But in Italy? what is the point of it? what is the use in having it as a separate institution to the chamber of deputies?

Gridlock exists. The other things you mentioned do not apply at all to Italy.

The purpose is having a separate deliberation from a body with different composition (the minimum age is higher; Senators for life exist) and "checks and balances". Also it gives us an opportunity to vote in two different ways when there are parliamentary elections.

To be honest, while many people seem to think "what's the point of having two chambers if they have roughly equal standing and competences?", my position is "what's the point of having two chambers if the upper one is clearly subordinate and has little power?"

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

In Italy, though, notwithstanding the fairly minor differences you mentioned, both chambers broadly represent the people, which raises the question of why have two chambers fulfilling the same roles and representing the same bodies?

My rationale is there is more and different deliberation and we get two votes, as I stated.

I don't understand the purpose of most imperfect bicameralisms - especially in non-federal nations.

Anyway I am going to count, sign and stamp ballots for the next two hours. To the next update!

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

In Italy, though, notwithstanding the fairly minor differences you mentioned, both chambers broadly represent the people, which raises the question of why have two chambers fulfilling the same roles and representing the same bodies?

My rationale is there is more and different deliberation and we get two votes, as I stated.

I don't understand the purpose of most imperfect bicameralisms - especially in non-federal nations.

Anyway I am going to count, sign and stamp ballots for the next two hours. To the next update!

The technical benefits of getting more deliberation (fixing mistakes, making sure that a law is considered carefully) can be achieved without giving the Senate a veto power over legislation that potentially leads to a situation of total gridlock. Admittedly, this is less of a problem now than it used to be because the voting systems for the House and Senate are pretty closely aligned (it was the electoral discrepancy of the Porcellum that created such a complete mess in 2006-2008 and 2013-2018). Still, perfect bicameralism is generally a terrible idea. It's no coincidence that the countries that practice it tend to have the most dysfunctional politics.

"Porcellum" was absolutely nonsensical - and it showed in 2013 when the coalition that won took only 30% of the votes.
I like perfect bicameralism instead. I can concede that unicameralism may be better but having a half-assed Senate would make me puke.

In any case, stamping ballots is pretty cool for such a repetitive task. The hammering noise of the stamp feels good. We have almost finished for today I think now.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Why can't you just abolish the Senate? What's argument against unicameralism in Italy?

Why should we abolish the Senate? What's the argument for unicameralism in Italy?

Not abolish, but rather change its functions.
A "regional Senate", such as the one of the 2016 constitutional reform.

Anyway, I fully agree that simply cutting the number of seats in the name of "politicians are bad let's get rid of them" is very bad, especially in the middle-long term.

Oh no the regional Senate would be horrendous, I would have easily voted against the 2016 reform.
I don't think there has ever been any constitutional referendum where I would have voted Yes to be honest.
Most of my family is voting No this year except probably my maternal grandmother since she buys into "politicians are bad let's get rid of them" pretty heavily (although it's also possible she is voting No "to screw over M5S", I am not sure).

"Porcellum" was absolutely nonsensical - and it showed in 2013 when the coalition that won took only 30% of the votes.

Yeah, no disagreement here. Although I despise the Rostellum almost as much - such a disingenuous system that pretends to be something it's not and ends up with the worst of both worlds. The Mattarellum was tolerable I guess, but tbh at this point I'd be willing to go back to thw First Republic (not that it was perfect, far from it).

Yes, paradoxically (?) the First Party System had the best electoral law so far.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Why can't you just abolish the Senate? What's argument against unicameralism in Italy?

Why should we abolish the Senate? What's the argument for unicameralism in Italy?

Answering a question with a question is annoying so please avoid doing that.

Unicameralism is the default in a non-federal parliamentary system as it's cheaper and more efficient, so you need an argument for why bicameralism is necessary. In a federal system one of the chambers represents the states or provinces, but in a unitary state it essentially serves no valid purpose other than - ideally - making the legislative procedure more thorough, but that's often a bogus argument and it doesn't seem to apply to Italy.

So I'll repeat my question: "Why can't you just abolish the Senate? What is the argument against unicameralism in Italy?"

I am sorry if I was annoying, but the fact is I have never seen much discussion about unicameralism. I can't tell you what's the argument against unicameralism in Italy if no one is proposing unicameralism in Italy!

I think I have already explained what purpose I find in our system.
If you ask me why it was created this way in the first place, the honest answer is that I haven't read the works of the Constituent Assembly enough to know.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Voting has now officially started in Italy!

To the next update.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Voting has now officially started in Italy!

To the next update.

I have just finished my lunch break, during which I was able to go to Mass, vote at my precinct, and also actually have lunch.

To the next update.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Voting has now officially started in Italy!

To the next update.

I have just finished my lunch break, during which I was able to go to Mass, vote at my precinct, and also actually have lunch.

To the next update.

Sunday voting has just finished.

Turnout in the precinct I am working at was about 33% today. I am disappointed. It is very low and is most likely not going to soar tomorrow. I haven't seen data about Italy as a whole, though.

To the next update.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Turnout is 56% in Valle d'Aosta, 51% in Veneto, 48% in Tuscany and Marche, 44% in Puglia and Liguria, 43% in Campania. Higher than the national average across the board (thankfully), but still far from stellar. We can hope that tomorrow will bring the total above 50% everywhere. Turnout in Tuscany at the last EU elections was over 60% - I doubt we will get there this time.

Trying to read signals into the provincial turnout patterns, there might be some encouraging patterns in Tuscany. Firenze has the highest turnout, and Siena is on par with the regional average. Pisa (normally a left-leaning province but also Ceccardi's home turf) is above average, but the traditional areas of right-wing strength (Massa-Carrara, Lucca, Arezzo, Grosseto) are all below average. That might be what saves Giani, although of course it might change tomorrow.

I couldn't make much of the Puglia pattern, especially since it's not clear where candidates have their areas of strength (somehow Emiliano actually underperformed in Taranto in 2015). Marche are inconclusive as well. In Campania, the good omens for De Luca might be confirmed: turnout is above average in Salerno and Avellino, and below average in Naples.

I don't think that Campanian provinces are as clear cut as you make them (and certainly the city of Naples is... hmm... not a right-wing stronghold) unless both De Luca and Caldoro have a sh**tload of local appeal, but we'll see. I agree with the rest.


Also: Sicily and Sardinia
The usual low turnout of the islands aches.


In other news, the second day of voting has just started!

To the next update.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

In other news, the second day of voting has just started!

To the next update.

Voting has now officially ended in Italy!

Final turnout at the precinct I am working at is around 45%.

I will spend the next couple hours counting votes.
As every other precinct starts counting, an Italy-sized hellish dumpster fire is going to begin soon.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

The precinct I am at voted 65% Yes and 35% No.
Not a good start at all.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Looks like Lega is behind in Tuscany in exit polls.  Oh well, I was hoping they could filip this one

"Scratch a libertarian..."

Relieving to see Tuscany leaning towards keeping in its leftist traditions. Fingers crossed for Puglia.

"...and find a tradcath"

(yesterday a friend of mine sent me an article according to which Ceccardi hosted a wake by an anti-gay tradcath group and was accused of not registering civil unions during her term as mayor)

Fingers crossed!!!

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

An exit poll has shown 55% of PD voters have voted No in the referendum.
Zingaretti's next few months might be rocky regardless of the regional elections.

I am one of them.

I'm sorry for Zingaretti though.