Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[Estrella]

Is there a possibility of a Renzi-Bonino-centrist microparties coalition, some kind of Patto Segni - boogaloo elettrico? Perhaps even Berlusconi would join, if it began to look that Lega+FdI would have a majority by themselves in the next election.

[Estrella]

Have there been any exit polls (or just ordinary polls) with crosstabs by age/occupation/sex since 2018? I'm asking because it'd be interesting to know how the M5S voters defected to left/right in different demographics. With no data, I'd guess that it would make sense if they went left among the young, women and middle-ish class and right with older people, men and working class.

[Estrella]

What's with the rise of FdI? They seem to be firmly above 10% in national polling, easily doubling the FI vote, and within MoE of M5S. Is there some particular reason or are the traditional FI voters just abandoning Berlusconi for a new and improved model?

It's not really the FI voters who are switchind to FdI. Second Republic Italian right was divided into two big camps - the Northern/Central Italian and economically liberal (in theory) Forza Italia and in the Southern post-fascist and interventionist Alleanza Nazionale. The merger into PdL and the chaos that came with the rise of the M5S obscured this, but these two camps still remained. It was a bit more complicated than this, but in 2018 the FI camp went to Lega and the AN camp to Five Stars. Obviously the M5S-PD coalition didn't exactly endear them to conservative Southerners, and while many did switch to Lega as the loudest voice on the right, some still think that Salvini is too northern and/or 'the wrong kind of right' and these people vote for FdI

[Estrella]

Possibly clueless #analysis and musings:

I know that the blowout in Campania and record-high percentages for the right in Red Belt were local results with all that follows from that. Still, I wonder if we might see a trend where both Central and Southern Italy become some sort of...swing regions? Something like if right wins, they'll be winning in Emilia-Romagna and if left wins, they'll be winning in Apulia - because of/despite the likelihood that the 2013 and 2018 three-cornered freak shows were aberrations that won't be repeated anytime soon.

Methinks that Fratelli are not Forza and will never be getting those kinds of results in the South, while Lega is MSI boogaloo elettrico - not an explicitly regional party, but doing quite a bit better in one part of the county than others (and also crazy far-right nuts). Sure, the border of that part has shifted a few hundred kilometres southwards but they will not become a truly national force like Forza (hah) either. Point being, Salvini and Meloni will have strongholds in their respective halves of the country, but the former will be stronger than Berlusconi in formerly lefty places and the latter will be weaker than him in formerly righty ones.

[Estrella]

Alcibiades makes a great point that Catholic countries tend to have much more imaginative (and blasphemous) obscenities

Yeah, I guess that religion is just as important as culture or language when it comes to this. European French insults are kinda boring (they're pretty similar to English ones, actually)... but in Québec, until recently much more religious than France, you have such great things as tabarnak de criss d'ostie de câlisse (okay, no idea if anyone would actually say this exact phrase, but it's still beautiful).

[Estrella]

Would not Senators from Renzi and Berlusconi parties have an incentive to break ranks and vote with the government ?  A snap election most likely they lose their seats.  As much as I want a snap election where Lega sweeps into power I sort of doubt that will actually take place.

I know you have always treaded the line between responsible orthodox economic policies and the supporting the most right-wing option available, but I thought you liked the former more than the latter?

[Estrella]

Seriously, when did "libertarians" get so attracted to ethnic chauvinism?

It's not even a new thing. Just an example: Robert A. Heinlein* is considered one of the foremost American libertarians, and yet he wrote Starship Troopers - a book that is simultaneously one of the best sci-fi novels of all time and a deeply ideological, fanatically fascist screed.

* I always have the urge to call him Henlein; I wonder what is beind that.

[Estrella]

Apologies for this Tenderism, but I just wanted to note that Roberto Fico became President of the Chamber two days after Robert Fico resigned as PM of Slovakia and was succeeded by a guy with an Italian surname.

[Estrella]

Apologies for this Tenderism, but I just wanted to note that Roberto Fico became President of the Chamber two days after Robert Fico resigned as PM of Slovakia and was succeeded by a guy with an Italian surname.

If that is true, RIP Italy

In case you're curious about the Slovak equivalent of Roberto Fico (i.e. speaker of the legislature)...

[Estrella]

I know that there are more important things to watch about Italy now, mafia gonna mafia after all, plus it doesn't really fit this thread - but could anybody tell me more about the 'Ndrangheta trial that started two weeks ago?

_{Slovakposting again, but I'm curious since there are well-founded suspicions that those guys had friends in high places here, up to and including Cabinet Office.}

[Estrella]

ＲＥＮＺＩＭＡＮＩＡ

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1355525215938342912

[Estrella]

what is the different between fdi voters and league voters?

What's with the rise of FdI? They seem to be firmly above 10% in national polling, easily doubling the FI vote, and within MoE of M5S. Is there some particular reason or are the traditional FI voters just abandoning Berlusconi for a new and improved model?

It's not really the FI voters who are switchind to FdI. Second Republic Italian right was divided into two big camps - the Northern/Central Italian and economically liberal (in theory) Forza Italia and in the Southern post-fascist and interventionist Alleanza Nazionale. The merger into PdL and the chaos that came with the rise of the M5S obscured this, but these two camps still remained. It was a bit more complicated than this, but in 2018 the FI camp went to Lega and the AN camp to Five Stars. Obviously the M5S-PD coalition didn't exactly endear them to conservative Southerners, and while many did switch to Lega as the loudest voice on the right, some still think that Salvini is too northern and/or 'the wrong kind of right' and these people vote for FdI

[Estrella]

And to add to what Estrella had said about the right-wing, it is clear that Lega has bled plenty of votes to FdI in the last year and a half, and also that many of these votes hadn't been in Lega for long.

I recall that back in 2019 Fratelli actually won some seats in northern regions. If the next election takes place with polling numbers like we have now (obvs a big if), could we see a result where Lega does decently in the Mezzogiorno, but Fratelli also do decently in the North?

[Estrella]

And to add to what Estrella had said about the right-wing, it is clear that Lega has bled plenty of votes to FdI in the last year and a half, and also that many of these votes hadn't been in Lega for long.

I recall that back in 2019 Fratelli actually won some seats in northern regions. If the next election takes place with polling numbers like we have now (obvs a big if), could we see a result where Lega does decently in the Mezzogiorno, but Fratelli also do decently in the North?

I am not sure what seats you mean (in the European Parliament? Yeah, but that's not very surprising) but what you are describing now for the next election is the modal outcome. Of course Lega will do much better in the North regardless, and Fratelli d'Italia will most likely do better in the South (but best of all in the Centre, or precisely in what we can call "enlarged Lazio"), but that's beside the point.

Yeah, I meant the EP. But - well, I'm not sure if I misunderstood your answer or you misunderstood my question. What I meant is, FdI will do well in the south/enlarged Lazio, but will Lega still keep a significant vote in those places? And vice versa.

[Estrella]

what is the different between fdi voters and league voters?

What's with the rise of FdI? They seem to be firmly above 10% in national polling, easily doubling the FI vote, and within MoE of M5S. Is there some particular reason or are the traditional FI voters just abandoning Berlusconi for a new and improved model?

It's not really the FI voters who are switchind to FdI. Second Republic Italian right was divided into two big camps - the Northern/Central Italian and economically liberal (in theory) Forza Italia and in the Southern post-fascist and interventionist Alleanza Nazionale. The merger into PdL and the chaos that came with the rise of the M5S obscured this, but these two camps still remained. It was a bit more complicated than this, but in 2018 the FI camp went to Lega and the AN camp to Five Stars. Obviously the M5S-PD coalition didn't exactly endear them to conservative Southerners, and while many did switch to Lega as the loudest voice on the right, some still think that Salvini is too northern and/or 'the wrong kind of right' and these people vote for FdI

So is meloni and salvini like a sibling rivalry with as berlusconi the father?

More like adoptive, now estranged father. The movements they represent precede Berlusconi's 1990s entry into politics and as things stand now, they're better off without him (it's not like he's relevant anymore).

Lega (until very recently Lega Nord, let's not forget) was born out of a Northern regionalist/separatist* movement who thought the central government was too strong and taxes should be lower. They also used to be quite shockingly racist against Southerners.

Fratelli are a descendant of National Alliance and its predecessor, the fascist Italian Social Movement. These people thought that the central government is too weak and spending should be higher. They got their support from regions that benefited most from Mussolini's regime - South and swamps-turned-suburbs around Rome.

Tellingly, when Berlusconi tried to unite Italian right back in 1994, he had to make two separate alliance: one with Lega in the North, one with the National Alliance in the south - they just couldn't stomach being in one room with each other (and they didn't and Silvio's first government fell apart after like a year). Relations slowly improved to the current level of "sibling rivalry", but it's still a rivalry.

_{* but it's not like they were ever seriously serious about it}

[Estrella]

what is the different between fdi voters and league voters?

What's with the rise of FdI? They seem to be firmly above 10% in national polling, easily doubling the FI vote, and within MoE of M5S. Is there some particular reason or are the traditional FI voters just abandoning Berlusconi for a new and improved model?

It's not really the FI voters who are switchind to FdI. Second Republic Italian right was divided into two big camps - the Northern/Central Italian and economically liberal (in theory) Forza Italia and in the Southern post-fascist and interventionist Alleanza Nazionale. The merger into PdL and the chaos that came with the rise of the M5S obscured this, but these two camps still remained. It was a bit more complicated than this, but in 2018 the FI camp went to Lega and the AN camp to Five Stars. Obviously the M5S-PD coalition didn't exactly endear them to conservative Southerners, and while many did switch to Lega as the loudest voice on the right, some still think that Salvini is too northern and/or 'the wrong kind of right' and these people vote for FdI

So is meloni and salvini like a sibling rivalry with as berlusconi the father?

More like adoptive, now estranged father. The movements they represent precede Berlusconi's 1990s entry into politics and as things stand now, they're better off without him (it's not like he's relevant anymore).

Lega (until very recently Lega Nord, let's not forget) was born out of a Northern regionalist/separatist* movement who thought the central government was too strong and taxes should be lower. They also used to be quite shockingly racist against Southerners.

Fratelli are a descendant of National Alliance and its predecessor, the fascist Italian Social Movement. These people thought that the central government is too weak and spending should be higher. They got their support from regions that benefited most from Mussolini's regime - South and swamps-turned-suburbs around Rome.

Tellingly, when Berlusconi tried to unite Italian right back in 1994, he had to make two separate alliance: one with Lega in the North, one with the National Alliance in the south - they just couldn't stomach being in one room with each other (and they didn't and Silvio's first government fell apart after like a year). Relations slowly improved to the current level of "sibling rivalry", but it's still a rivalry.

_{* but it's not like they were ever seriously serious about it}

Who is berlusconi successor btw the man has to be grooming someone? Who isn’t a underage.

No one. The crumbling of Berlusconi started long ago; just after his 2008 landslide victory, in fact. The events of how exactly it happened would be prime tragicomedy material, but it was basically like this:
- The economy went to shxt and took Silvio's popularity down with it
- He lost his parliamentary majority and had no alternative but to support an unpopular technocratic government
- Then he lost an election but had to enter a coalition with the left to make the country at least a little less ungovernable
 - Which, unsurprisingly made him even more unpopular and the psychodrama of his exit from said coalition didn't help
- Finally, he was prosecuted for corruption, expelled from Senate and banned from holding public office. By then, Salvnini had already eclipsed him and the only way was down. The small bump before the 2018 election turned out to be a mirage.

The above is one half of why there is no one who could be Berlusconi's successor; the brand is just toxic. The other half is that Berlusconi is, well, Berlusconi - there is no one who could replicate that magic. The same thing is going to happen on America: Trump Jr or Ivanka might pretend to have some of that special appeal, but there is only one real Trump: the Donald.

[Estrella]

The above is one half of why there is no one who could be Berlusconi's successor; the brand is just toxic. The other half is that Berlusconi is, well, Berlusconi - there is no one who could replicate that magic. The same thing is going to happen on America: Trump Jr or Ivanka might pretend to have some of that special appeal, but there is only one real Trump: the Donald.

Technically speaking the successor of Berlusconi has to be Antonio Tajani, but I both doubt Silvio will leave the leadership of the party as long as he is alive and doubt that Forza Italia will be able to survive his death.

I wonder, who are those 5-10% of people that would still vote for him?

[Estrella]

Courtesy of r/italy: Lega posters from the 1990s



"further from Rome, closer to Europe" ijfknskjsdfsfdn

"partisan conscience" aaaaaaaaaaaaaa

[Estrella]

Lmao so Italy now has the peak meme government of Lega-M5S-PD?

Salvini and Grillists, led by literally former president of ECB. Try going back in time to, I don't know, the peak of Renzimania, tell this to people and watch their heads explode.

[Estrella]

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/09/world/europe/italy-renzi-interview.html
The narcissism in this lmao

Confirms that the best description of Renzi I could come up with is "an energetic moron". This served him well when he was - as a politician who was a complete opposite of his in every way once put it - not exactly living in a world of giants. But there's only so much you can accomplish with that and when he needed actual strategic thinking, well...

[Estrella]

Is this not good news for FdI since now they can cleanup the anti-establishment vote in the next election ?

FdI will likely make hay out of being the only opposition, yes. Joining this government seems like a strategic blunder on both Matteos' parts.

Io Sono Giorgia, Sono una donna, sono una madre, sono una cristiana.

ahaha that's funny but I'm guessing that was just a one-off, there's no way she... oh. oh. I see. paging brtd.

[Estrella]

Is this not good news for FdI since now they can cleanup the anti-establishment vote in the next election ?

FdI will likely make hay out of being the only opposition, yes. Joining this government seems like a strategic blunder on both Matteos' parts.

Io Sono Giorgia, Sono una donna, sono una madre, sono una cristiana.

ahaha that's funny but I'm guessing that was just a one-off, there's no way she... oh. oh. I see. paging brtd.

was that her offical account?

yep, she seems to unironically like it lmao

[Estrella]

Italexit

there's literally "uscITA" ffs

[Estrella]

In an even more masterful bit of "carpetbagging and YES really" like he has done a countless number of times, art critic turned politician turned pop culture icon Vittorio Sgarbi has announced his candidacy as well. Sgarbi is notoriously right-leaning, but there's no guarantee as to what his electorate might be.

People who like when someone YELLS VERY LOUDLY ON THE TELLY, perhaps?

[Estrella]

In an even more masterful bit of "carpetbagging and YES really" like he has done a countless number of times, art critic turned politician turned pop culture icon Vittorio Sgarbi has announced his candidacy as well. Sgarbi is notoriously right-leaning, but there's no guarantee as to what his electorate might be.

People who like when someone YELLS VERY LOUDLY ON THE TELLY, perhaps?

CAPRA! SEI UNA CAPRA IGNORANTE!

And you only talk about the dead because you need the dead so you can pretend to be alive is prime song lyric material.

The other one is just... well, a highly intellectual debate about dialectics, moralism and vaguely Freudian armchair psychoanalysis about "eternal return to a state of infantility" that quickly devolves into a shouting match full of insults about how the other guy is a spoiled brat who's never accomplished anything and speaks a dead language and has no taste because "that's the tragedy of doctor's sons" or that he's a GOAT! GOAT! GOAT!, all, of course, joined together with lots and lots of gesticulation and swearwords, and then out of the blue there's a surreal segue to skimpily dressed girls dancing to cheery pop music and the guy who was arguing just seconds ago jumps out of his chair and starts hopping and dancing all over the studio... that's just pure, distilled Italianness. Forget Dante and da Vinci and Vivaldi, this is your national heritage.