Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

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I tend to avoid talking about Italian politics lately, given its sad state right now, but it's only fair to give an update on the situation.

POLLS

Lega - 30,8% (17,4% in March GE)
Movimento 5 Stelle - 26,2% (32,7%)
PD - 17,1% (18,8%)
Forza Italia - 9,4% (14%)
Fratelli d'Italia - 3,9% (4,4%)
Liberi e Uguali - 2,6% (3,4%)
+Europa - 2,4% (2,6%)
Potere al Popolo - 2% (1,1%)

Threshold is at 3%

Lega keeps growing at an astonishing pace, at the expense of the M5S and its (former?) ally, Berlusconi's Forza Italia. The center-right bloc (Lega-Forza Italia-Fratelli d'Italia) would easily have an absolute majority [only 40% or so is necessary, given the electoral law mixing PR (66%) and uninominal seats (33%)], and there is talk that the next GE might be at the same time as the European Elections in May.
This is in part due to Salvini being costantly at the center of the stage, and making good (at least in the media) on his promises to stop immigration, while the M5S has lots of difficulties in claryifying who will benefit from its universal basic income proposal, and specifying its details.

PD has remained more or less costant, which is not too bad given how it's been waiting for the new congress ever since March (more on this below), while Potere al Popolo (which try to resemble Melenchon's France Insoumise) is trying to become the left's main party at the expense of Liberi e Uguali (which might not even be a thing anymore, since its components, Sinistra Italiana, former communists, and MDP, former members of PD, have fought very bitterly).

PD CONGRESS

After Renzi's resignation as secretary following the GE disaster, there's been lots of speculation about the future of PD. Now, the path to the next congress, and the open primaries to elect the new secretary, is officially on. The primaries should be at the beginning of March (possibly on the 3rd of March, 364 days after the last general elections...).
Renzi will not run, to the disappointment of his die-hard fans (which are still a good chunk of PD's members).
Zingaretti, Lazio's governor, is the frontrunner, trying to shift PD to the left and pretty much attacking everything that was done by PD under Renzi's leadership. Around Zingaretti there is a colition of the former minority and some of Renzi's supporters, such as former PM Gentiloni and former PD Secretary Franceschini (whose political history is based on jumping on the bandwagon).
Zingaretti is not very charismatic, and his main pros are the fact that he announced his candidacy early (the day after winning the regional elections, which were also on March 4th), and that many feel the need to move on after Renzi.

The more reformist candidates are Minniti, Martina and Richetti.
Minniti, former Minister of Interior, is known for the treaties signed with Libya concerning checks on migration and camps to contain those trying to sail towards Italy. Admittedly, at its peak and without any help from the EU, the migration crisis needed some kind of control, but his political platform is pretty much based on migration. Those who think that the only way to stop Salvini is to stop immigration support him, other are very tepid. Many of Renzi's supporters will support him.

Martina, former minister of Agriculture and at-interim secretary from March until now, is a more intermediate candidate between Zingaretti and Minniti. Nannicini, economist and Renzi's chief economic advisor, Orfini (PD's president), and Delrio (former Minister of Infrastructure and current PD whip in the House of Representatives) are amongst his main supporters.
Nannicini summarized Martina's platform as "pride and restlessness", therefore not wanting to do an U-turn on the work done by the PD-led governments in the last 5 years, while also being aware that the political situation is extremely serious, that errors were made and there need to be changes.
Martina's first proposal is to abolish the Bossi-Fini law which destroyed the management of legal immigration flows. This is in stark contrast to Minniti's approach. He's personally my favourite right now, if anything because he acknowledges the need to avoid the primary simply being a pro vs anti Renzi referendum, which would lead to nothing.

Lastly, Richetti is an unorthodox Renzi supporter, who has always tried to distinguish himself, at least in form if not in substance. He's running as the youngish candidate, but there has been very little policy-wise from him, and now that Martina is running as a more credible unorthodox Renzi supporter, there is talk that the two may join forces (as openly stated by Martina).

Amongst minor candidates, there are Boccia, representing the more openly pro-M5S wing which responds to Puglia's governor Emiliano; Damiano, left-wing former minister who may eventually support Zingaretti, and Corallo, a 30-year old from the youth organization who made a name for himself with controversial remarks on the social media against the party's leadership (and whom I know personally since he's from my .

Latest polls have it as:
Zingaretti 33%
Minniti 25%
Martina 15%
Richetti 8%
Boccia 4%
Damiano 2%
Corallo 1%

There will be two rounds of voting. The first one is for members-only, and the top three will then go to the open primaries. There, one needs 50%+1 of the votes in order to get an absolute majority in the National Assembly, otherwise the next secretary will be voted by the Assembly (thus leaving the door open to a deal between the second and third-placed, an "accusation" that Zingaretti is already throwing around).

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  Any thoughts on the new immigration and security law now passed by the lower house. Does it go significantly in the direction that the League and other right wing parties want, or is it more for show?

It significantly hinders the current system built to integrate the migrants who are acknowledged the refugee status (which is widely seen as working well, ensuring that they learn Italian and do internships while in small communities), literally putting hundreds of people on the street.
There are some "common sense" measures in the bill, but mostly they are for show and will have a very negative impact on migrants' integration and on their lives.


As for the budget negotiations, the budget law is gradually losing popularity thanks to the sh*tshow that the government has put together.
There are still no details whatsover on who's gonna benefit from early retirement ("quota 100") and the universal basic income ("reddito di cittadinanza"). All it has caused has been a rise in the BTP-bund spread, and it now seems that the government will have to back down and decrease the deficit from 2.4% to 2%, but it's not clear what will make room for it.

Electorally wise, Lega has benefitted in the last weeks, probably because of the show they have made on immigration, and because they have delivered on the tax amnesty and (partially) on early retirement. M5S is still going down, also because of the many scandals concerning Di Maio and his father's firm (regarding unpaid taxes, buildings built without permits, and workers hired without a contract).

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Also, regarding PD's primaries, Richetti has dropped out and officially endorsed Martina (they are now running as a Martina-Richetti ticket).
I'm curious to see the next few polls on the matter.

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There's complete chaos in PD.
Minniti has dropped out, apparently after a bitter conversation on the phone with Renzi.
Renzi announced the creation of "civic committees" at his last Leopolda convention, two months ago, and it was always rumoured that they were the first stage of his new party.
He has done little to silence those rumours, and now did not throw his full support to Minniti, who left only 18 days after announcing his candidacy.

There's only 5 days left to present a new name, otherwise it will be a Zingaretti vs Martina showdown. Renzi's close supporters are in chaos, unless Bellanova (a female former unionist from Puglia, quite charismatic) runs I guess they will support Martina, but some are also open to joining Renzi's new party, even though the way he is behaving lately is alienating many more.

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I wonder if the new party launched by Renzi is going to be more similar to En Marche! or Ciudadanos. I have more doubts, however, concerning the viability of the project.

It's not official, to be clear. And yesterday night he said that he has no intention of launching a new party.
But, speaking as somebody who is a PD member and knows a few people close to Renzi, it seems highly likely.

Amongst the possible names for this party there were "Libdem" and "Cittadini", which is Italian for Ciudadanos...

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Yesterday the deputies closer to Renzi met to decide how to approach the congress.
A few refused to go after Martina criticized Renzi's words on the party ("I should have used a flamethrower"). The majority gave a mandate to negotiate with Martina, but a few, stubborn supporters refused to join the "reformist front" and so we now have a new ticket, Giachetti/Ascani.
Giachetti is a deputy, former mayor candidate in Rome in 2016 (lost badly the second round against M5S' Raggi), while Ascani is a young deputy from Umbria and would be the vice-secretary.

I am curious to see how it turns out, I'd say that they would be behind both Zingaretti and Martina.

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God Renzi seems to be losing brain cells by the day. This stunt is only going to leave him more irrelevant than ever before. He could have had the decency to go quietly into the night and become a celebrity political commentator or something, but no, he insists on dragging this out and making a fool of himself. It's really a shame - the guy had a lot of potential.

Hopefully Zingaretti wins and this circus ends quickly.

Just to be clear - a win by Zingaretti would not ensure "peace" in the Italian center-left at all.

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How much Zingaretti can be treated as seriously centre-left candidate? I've seen his program which was ok, I know who supports him and I do not have positive opinion about Italian political system and that makes me doubt that he will be any plausible alternative to Renzi or his opponents in open primary.

Don't really like him at all.
He's likely to win tomorrow based on the fact that he is a generic anti-Renzi, leftist candidate. But time and time again he has shown no backbone when it mattered, such as when he refused to run for mayor in 2013 preferring to run for Lazio's governorship, even though the former was where he was truly needed. Even now he's inconsistent, changing opinion on a weekly basis based on the polls (such as his stance on an alliance with M5S).

I'll vote for Martina (and stay at the poll from 7am till 9pm...), since his message is much more convincing (correct the path, and not just go some other unclear direction), and he's more likely to unite the party and the center-left. But we'll see.

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It's pretty funny that the much vaunted basic income from the 5 Stars is basically Hartz IV or universal credit; it's a means tested debit card that can only be used in certain stores for certain purposes and lasts for three years max, and you have to accept any job offered to you.

Well, any of the first 3 offers that you get. But for the rest I agree, it's nothing new.


Update on the polls average:
Lega: 32,8%
Movimento 5 Stelle: 22,2%
Partito Democratico: 20,6%
Forza Italia: 9,4%
Fratelli d'Italia (Right-wing Eurosceptic): 4,9%
+Europa (Liberal Pro-Europe): 3,2%
La Sinistra (Left): 3%
Verdi (Greens): 1,4%

PD's rise following the victory of Zingaretti in the primaries in March has now come to a halt, as M5S somehow manages to slowly rise, while Forza Italia is collapsing even though Berlusconi is running for the European Elections.
La Sinistra, the new leftist bloc which replaces MDP (part of which went into PD following Zingaretti's win), polls decently.


Together with the European Elections, in one month there will also be regional elections in Piemonte (incumbent: PD) and a number of important cities, amongst which Florence and Bari (both incumbents: PD).
Tomorrow there will be the first round of voting in a few Sicilian municipalities (since they are a Special Statute Regions they choose their own date), but only Caltanissetta is worth watching, and even that is a pretty small town.
It will be interesting to see whether in the second round (Italian law for municipal elections has a second round between the top two if nobody gets to 50%) M5S voters will support the center-right, and viceversa, as has been the case in the past. The daily fight between Salvini and Di Maio may lead to some surprises.

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Lega got more than the latest polls from 2 weeks ago, and about as much as the polls from a couple months ago.
M5S fell below what was considered as Di Maio's "survival threshold". They are in lots of trouble, they also suffered from the low turnout in the South.
PD are now the second party so it's a victory, still lots of work to do in the Southern regions. Also, the result in Umbria is horrible (half the votes of Lega in a former leftwing stronghold).
Fratelli d'Italia also appear to have a very strong result, they managed to survive and thrive regardless of Lega's great growth.
La Sinistra below Europa Verde is just LOL.

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Center-right wins municipal elections in Cagliari at the first-round by a whole...80 votes, with less than 50.1%.
Center-left is asking for a recount.

Sassari is going to the second-round with center-left vs civic center-right, Lega and co. came in third.

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This surprising summer caught everyone by surprise...me included, since I was enjoying my holidays in the seaside when Salvini decided to pull the plug (the day of my birthday, what a gift).

PD did the most sensible thing by agreeing to a government with M5S (and LeU...). Elections in October would have led either to a Lega absolute majority, or a Lega-Fratelli d'Italia easy majority. It would have been frightening to say the least, since they would also have chosen the next President in 2022.

Reaching 2022 is indeed IMO the primary target this gov't should have, timewise.
Even though there are daily rumours of Renzi breaking out of PD and forming his own party within a purely proportional electoral system, and Calenda (former minister of economic development, current eurodeputy) did leave PD following the alliance with M5S.

Interesting times ahead for sure...but interesting is better than scary.
As a PD member who has always deeply despised the 5 Star Movement, I consider myself quite satisfied with this summer's outcome.

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Italia Viva currently polls between 3% and 6%.
The deputies which switched from PD to IV are just loyalists, all of the former Renzi supporters which supported Martina (the more moderate candidate) are remaining.

As mentioned above, Renzi just wanted his own party, surrounded by yes-men ready to obey. Factionalism was a big deal in PD, sure, but Renzi vowed to break it while instead all he managed to do was to bring his own bunch of loyalists in power, without any structural change.
Hard to see how his new party is going to work in a different way.

He's going to be aiming for the "moderates", much like Calenda, who broke away from PD one month ago because of the gov't with M5S. But as it is, he's getting support from former PD supporters, while those in FI (both the deputies and voters) are staying clear.

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The Right's victory was expected - Umbria was the region perhaps hit the hardest by the economic crisis, from which it hasn't recovered yet, and the center-left after 50 years of local administration had been losing for the last 5 years.
Even as Renzi was winning 2014's elections with 40%, PD were losing Perugia to Forza Italia.

Nonetheless, the defeat for the "structural alliance between PD and M5S" faction is quite bitter.

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Apparently half of M5S voters stayed home, 20% went to Lega, just 2% voted PD.

You can make a government out of nowhere, but you can't make electoral alliances from one day to the other, and with no common vision.

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Italy might even have a contest between FdI and Lega if we continue like this.

Erm, no.

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There was talk that regional leaders of M5S in Emilia Romagna were trying to convince voters to vote for the M5S list but for Bonaccini (center-left) as president...doubt it will have much of an effect though.

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Well well well, lots to say as we are a week away from the elections.

Campania being safer for the left than Tuscany is something...weird. But I think Vincenzo De Luca personality is what makes the difference...yes, I've seen some of his Covid-related youtube shows.

I just love Vincenzo De Luca. When he speaks he produces gold nuggets constantly. I am glad Campanians seem to think like me.
In Tuscany Susanna Ceccardi is showing to be a better candidate than Lucia Borgonzoni, who was notoriously absent on the campaign trail and seemed like a Salvini sideshow.

Lega has learned from Emilia Romagna - Ceccardi is just as much of a not-quite-cunning extremis as Borgonzoni, but they're hiding it better. Also, Salvini not going around ringing at the door of presumed drug dealers is helping.

Overall, my current predictions are the following:

Veneto - Zaia has already won. The only question is whether Zaia's civic list will get more votes than Lega - Salvini is very much afraid of that. "Fun" fact: center-left candidate and Padua mayor, Lorenzoni, got Covid last week, and is unable to campaign - he collapsed on a live stream only a few days ago.

Liguria - it was supposed to be a tight race, but Toti (center-right) will win easily. This is the only region where PD and M5S field a common candidate, but they only did so at the last second and unconvincingly., and so even though Toti is far from being unbeatable, this is safe center-right.

Marche - "the Italian Ohio", as some newspapers said. But they also said it about Umbria, and it ended up being a landslide for the right. Same here, probably - the right is fielding an Fdi and pretty far-right candidate, but PD and M5S are fielding different candidates, and in a region where M5S has always been pretty strong they simply stand no chance divided.

Campania - solid PD. It's De Luca (PD) vs Caldoro (right) for the third time in a row, they each won once. De Luca has gained even further popularity during the Covid lockdown, and while a few months ago Zingaretti didn't want him as a candidate in order to ally with M5S, now he's thanking God that De Luca exists and will win at least one region for PD.

Puglia - tilt right. Fitto (former governor in the 2000's) seems to have gained traction, while incumbent Emiliano, a populist who has always tried to court M5S and has tried every trick up his sleeve (including paying newly married couples in Puglia a few thousand euros last month), will pay the fact that both M5S and Italia Viva will run separately. Quite ironic that Emiliano might lose because of both M5S, which he has always loved, and Renzi, who he has always loathed.

Tuscany - tilt PD. The peculiar electoral law has already been mentioned, Ceccardi (Lega) too. PD are fielding a weak candidate, Giani, whose only merit is not being the incumbent governor (Rossi, who broke with PD a few years ago). Tuscany has being trending right for years, 6 of the 10 provincial capitals have center-right mayors, but my gut feeling is that the center-left will win by a razor--tight margin.

Val d'Aosta - honestly, no clue. There is no polling whatsoever.

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What hasn't been mentioned is the constitutional referendum on the reduction of members of the House of deputies (from 630 to 400) and the Senate (from 315 to 200).

This is one of the oldest battles of the M5S - consistently with their claim that politicians are crooks who only steal public money from the people.
M5S and Lega pushed it through quite quickly during their year in government, but it was M5S and PD that eventually pushed it through the finish line, shortly after the start of the Conte II government (almost all of the MPs voted in favour, it must be noted).
PD voted against it 3 times, but then had to accept it as a condition for forming a government with M5S. In exchange, there should have been a new electoral law (proportional), and changes to the rules of both the House and the Senate (as it is, there would be lots of problems in them functioning correctly).
Neither has happened, but nonetheless Zingaretti has decided that the official position of PD should be in favour of the reform, and he got it ratified on monday. This is widely seen as a move to push a strategic alliance with M5S, and many PD members are quite pissed, since PD's position has never been that of reducing MPs without reforming other parts of the Constitution.

Polls were showing a landslide in favour of the reform (90-10 or so), but in the last few weeks it's getting tighter (70-30), as more and more prominent figures (including former PM Prodi and the young movement of the Sardines) are declaring their opposition to it.

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Why can't you just abolish the Senate? What's argument against unicameralism in Italy?

Why should we abolish the Senate? What's the argument for unicameralism in Italy?

Not abolish, but rather change its functions.
A "regional Senate", such as the one of the 2016 constitutional reform.

Anyway, I fully agree that simply cutting the number of seats in the name of "politicians are bad let's get rid of them" is very bad, especially in the middle-long term.

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65-35 in favour of the reform is what exit polls are saying too - pretty underwhelming result

For the rest, all as expected
Campania - center-left above 50%
Veneto - center-right with Zaia above 70%
Marche - center-right around 50%
Liguria - center-right above 50%
Toscana - tilt center-left (45-42 but within MoE)
Puglia - pure tossup, all exit polls are giving the exact same intervals for Emiliano (centerleft) and Fitto (centerleft)

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An exit poll has shown 55% of PD voters have voted No in the referendum.
Zingaretti's next few months might be rocky regardless of the regional elections.

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No is winning in the city centres of Milan, Turin and Rome. Usual centre-periphery trend.

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Meanwhile the right risks winning the Senate by-election in Sardinia (former M5S seat) against a center-left fielding 3 candidates...

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It was a surprise move - and I still think it might be a tactical one, aimed at being reconfirmed at the national assembly and shut all internal minorities.

In general, I think a discussion about PD's placement and alliances is necessary, the push towards M5S is too strong to ignore. Conte has been praised and defended beyond all sense, and now if he is to lead M5S there is a real risk that PD ends up losing masses of votes.