Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein

[Former President tack50]

Well, seems like Italy didn't learn the lesson 80 years ago

Still, wouldn't most Roma gypsies be either Italians or from other EU countries? (ie still can't be deported unless they make a crime). How many non EU Roma people can there be?

[Former President tack50]

So Lega+Fdi+Forza have recently been polling above 50%...which would be a landslide in new electoral system. This isn't the first poll to show this as well. Considering how fractured the opposition appears, Salvini has to be lining up the cards for a snap election...right?

Probably. Hopefully he manages to blow it somehow like Theresa May, but Salvini is a lot smarter

[Former President tack50]

As for the immigration issue: well, its actually quite unique toxicity in Italy can be put down to the fact that Italy for a very long time was a country in which emigration was a social phenomenon, but immigration basically wasn't.

I mean, that also applies here (immigration was barely a thing until like 1995 or so) and the reaction to immigration is radically different than Italy's

[Former President tack50]

Agreed. PD should not prop up the government. Go to elections, crush M5S and lead a hard opposition for 4 years (or less, it's Italy after all). After that hopefully Salvini loses.

[Former President tack50]

Looking at the evolution of Emilia Romagna, it seems most M5S voters just voted for the right?

Obviously more complicated than that I assume? Who did M5S voters vote for before 2013? The left or Berlusconi?

[Former President tack50]

Well, I'm back! Couldn't miss such a momentous electoral cycle in my home country. Glad there's been a vibrant discussion going on without me, though! Battista, I don't think we've interacted much before, but it's great to have a fellow Italian (and one so knowledgeable) on board to discuss our country's perpetually messed up politics.

Anyway, like Edu, I recently sent out my No ballot, but I'm not getting my hopes up. There's going to be a hard core of right-wingers (and some disaffected anti-M5S lefties) who will bring now up into the 30s or even 40s, but I don't see it being enough to stem the tide of knee-jerk anti-political demagoguery. That's just how Italy rolls...

Seconded everything y'all said about De Luca. The man is a national treasure and I was incredibly relieved to find out he's likely to hang on. If any incumbent this cycle deserves reelection, it's him. I'm also hoping Emiliano can survive, I've always liked the guy. And obviously losing Tuscany would be a massive blow. Oh well. As usual with Italian elections, I'm not optimistic, but I don't want to be all doomer either.

Oooh the King is back!!!

Thank you, Antonio.

By the way, I am going to be a poll worker this year.

I am always surprised when countries rely on volunteers to run their elections instead of doing like where where poll duties are essencially random and mandatory if you get picked (and if you don't go you get a very heavy and easy to enforce fine)

You do get somme advantages though, notably being paid 60€. If you are one of the few people who work on sundays, you still have to be paid by your employer. If you work the next day, you get the right to get the first 5 hours of your workday off the next day.

[Former President tack50]

Eh Italy is fine with 400 MPs. It's not like that is an insanely small number. Maybe Italy might need slightly more than that (I'd personally go with 450 or 500) but it's not that small.

Especially when Italy uses Party List PR and presumably individual MPs are essencially mindless drones. You could replace the parliament with as little as 7 MPs (the 7 party leaders from each of the main parties) if you introduced weighted voting.

And like others said, unicameralism would be a plus for Italy, as the Senate is very much redundant (now if it got elected by region then sure). At the very least the Senate should not be able to veto a PM (I am fine with it vetoing bills though).

[Former President tack50]

[censored]

Seriously, why is he like this?

I mean, please, we can do without the extreme blasphemies...

Aside from that, I can relate to how you're feeling, and my only answer is that Renzi's ego can never be underestimated.

It wouldn't be Italian politics without the extreme blasphemies after all

[Former President tack50]

[censored]

Translation?

Comparing the Virgin, Our Lady, to a transvestite whore, all the angels in a row, comparing God to a swine.

Yeah, welcome to the magic tragic world of Italian blasphemies.

I feel that Catholic countries have much more imaginative obscenities.

I feel like it's an Italian thing specifically. But tack50 feel free to illuminate me as to whether Spaniards curse with "D*** perro" or "M**** puta".

Spaniards are incredibly blasphemous when insulting lmao. The insults aren't quite the same, but they'd still be considered pretty obscene.

Yeah, not quite to Italian levels perhaps, but there are certainly tons of blasphemous insults in Spain, perhaps the most extended by far being "Me cago en Di** y en la Vir***" (ie I s**t on God and the Virgin); and derivatives of it.

Though it is usually just shortened to "Me cago en..." or to "Me cago en diez" (I sh**t on 10) and left at that; which wouldn't be blasphemous

Alcibiades makes a great point that Catholic countries tend to have much more imaginative (and blasphemous) obscenities

[Former President tack50]

Yeah, the famously economically interventionist party which *checks notes* has proposed a 15% flat income tax and also *checks notes* supports giving more autonomy to rich Northern regions.

In fairness to Lega Nord (never thought I'd say that); giving more autonomy to the regions isn't an inherently left wing or right wing policy

Their reasoning for the extra autonomy clearly is right wing though; "Roma ladrona" is fairly clear.

[Former President tack50]

[Former President tack50]

Apologies for this Tenderism, but I just wanted to note that Roberto Fico became President of the Chamber two days after Robert Fico resigned as PM of Slovakia and was succeeded by a guy with an Italian surname.

If that is true, RIP Italy

[Former President tack50]

What's with all the tiny irrelevant left of centre parties? Why are there so many of them?

And more importantly, will that hurt PD in some way?

[Former President tack50]

Why has Italy changed its election law so many times anyways?

To be honest I think the way to go for Italy would be a simple "return to basics", abolish the FPTP seats and simply use pure PR (with an election threshold at say, 3%); which to my understanding is what Italy already did before 1994 anyways?

If Italy wants to a majoritarian system instead, my take is to simply use good old FPTP with nothing else, like the UK or US do. Perhaps in a 2 round system format like France does in legislative elections.

[Former President tack50]

"Le Pen [father] is fascist like the parties of Rome" lmaoooooooooooooo

Also the poster in the upper right quadrant is the nakedest dog-whistle about terroni I have ever seen in my life.

Given that, I wonder what would the Lega founders think about being now an anti-EU party allied with Le Pen [daughter]

In fact, how is Bossi seen nowadays by the Lega and their supporters?

[Former President tack50]

Lmao so Italy now has the peak meme government of Lega-M5S-PD?

[Former President tack50]

WTF I love Meloni now

I guess we just need AfD-kun now and we'd have the full Axis powers back in anime form

[Former President tack50]

From 1 to 100, how this modern PSI is just a corruption-nepotist scheme and not a real, left-wing political party? (inb4 all Italian political parties are corruption schemes).

If you mean Riccardo Nencini's PSI, I don't believe it is meaningfully left-wing or a meaningful party at all, but I have no idea how corrupt it is.

I guess the point is that in order to be corrupt you need to get into power first there

[Former President tack50]

Five days and counting?

Tell me you're Italian politics without telling me you're Italian politics

I said this somewhere else, but even Papal conclaves somehow manage to be more transparent and effective than Italian Presidential elections.

[Former President tack50]

Ok, so there are 2 outcomes I am slightly scared of (even within how terrible this election is) so I will ask how likely both scenarios are:

a) The 3 right wing parties adding up to a "constitutional majority"/being able to amend the constitution unilaterally without referendum. Which from what I can tell would mean a 2/3 majority?
 
b) FdI+Lega adding up to a majority by themselves, not needing Forza Italia. Not like Berlusconi is going to be a particularly good moderating force, but it's better than nothing I suppose.

Is either scenario likely to happen?

[Former President tack50]

The chart above has given me pause re: how "educational trends" may simply be downstream from age cohorts and the expanded access to/incentive for education among younger voters. Certainly there is some class aspect to educational background, but it can be overstated in a place like Italy (where education has lagged most globalized nations).

I'm late, but I will say that this is certainly true. The more educated categories also usually skew younger than the general population while the opposite is true for the more educated categories. So depending on country, sometimes splits by education can end up as a proxy for voting by age.

(For what's worth that's also something applicable for Spain, particularly for the most "extreme" categories like "no formal education" or "elementary school only"; so I'm not too surprised it's applicable in Italy too even in spite of a very different political system)

[Former President tack50]

How the hell does crypto-fascist Meloni manage to be the adult in the room vs ""centre-right moderate"" Berlusconi?

I thought I'd have to support FI's moderating influence, but it seems somehow FdI are the real moderates? Italian politics never cease to disappoint I guess

Or is NATO/the EU an exception in policy?

[Former President tack50]

What restrictions are there still in place in Italy in the first place anyways? At least here only one I can think of is "masks in public transit and hospitals", which doesn't seem like removing it would be all that radical.