Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein
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Author Topic: Italian Elections and Politics 2022 - Our Time to Schlein  (Read 169869 times)
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #1625 on: September 25, 2022, 08:06:41 PM »

So in the Senate, the Right is almost certain to win at least 54 seats out of 74. M5S is well placed to get 5, and the left (including SVP lol) another 5. Another 10 are still floating around, though in most of them the right is behind.

On the PR side, the right should probably win 55-60 seats. So probably 110 to 120 is where the Senate will end up when all is said and done.

La7 says between 114 and 122. Close enough, I guess. We'll see where it ends up exactly. The right looks actually set to sweep all the Rome seats, so that would shift a couple seats around.

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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #1626 on: September 25, 2022, 08:20:00 PM »

So with the current leads the right is on track to win 58 of the 74 Senate seats (they've pulled ahead in VdA too). We'll see how many PR seats they win in the end (if they keep inching up they could get to 59 or 60) but either way I don't think 122 is likely. Either way still a great result, of course.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
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« Reply #1627 on: September 25, 2022, 08:33:42 PM »

Is it certain that Meloni will be the next PM? Wasn't Draghi and independent?
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
Nathan
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« Reply #1628 on: September 25, 2022, 08:38:51 PM »
« Edited: September 26, 2022, 03:58:30 PM by Actual Necromancer Joe Manchin »


All but.

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Wasn't Draghi and independent?

Yes, but look at the party standings in the outgoing Parliament.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #1629 on: September 25, 2022, 08:53:54 PM »

The reporting is starting to slow to a trickle, but we're at about 2/3 for the Senate.

VdA 100%
Liguria 91%
FVG 90%
Umbria 87%
TAA 86%
Toscana 84%
ER 84%
Marche 83%
Puglia 79%
Veneto 76%
Molise 71%
Piemonte 75%
Campania 67%
Abruzzo 65%
Basilicata 64%
Lazio 64%
Calabria 58%
Lombardia 54%
Sardegna 52%
Sicilia 34%

Lombardy and Sicily are the two big shoes still to drop. Both should heavily favor the right, though Sicily results are really bizarre. Also lots of votes left in Lazio, and especially in its most heavily right-wing parts.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #1630 on: September 25, 2022, 08:55:01 PM »

Also La7 has its final projection for the House at 230 to 244. Again quite a margin.
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ηєω ƒяσηтιєя
New Frontier
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« Reply #1631 on: September 25, 2022, 08:57:37 PM »

Of course, I see nothing but American right wing lunatics on Twitter celebrating Meloni. SMH.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #1632 on: September 25, 2022, 09:21:11 PM »

The right pulled ahead in the Messina seat where the De Luca independent was ahead for a while. They also look poised to eventually overtake M5S in the Foggia one. That could actually put them at 61 FPP seats. Given how they're doing percentage-wise, that actually pretty much guarantees 120 seats right there.
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Beet
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« Reply #1633 on: September 25, 2022, 09:22:02 PM »

Awful result.

It's a sign of the right-wing times we live in though.
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Logical
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« Reply #1634 on: September 25, 2022, 09:38:33 PM »

Percentage wise the right coalition did not gain that much. CSX+M5S+AZ-IV stands at ~48%, comfortably above CDX at ~43%. What gave the right the majority was the left's failure to coalesce, the massive egos of their leaders and a war crime of an electoral system. The hot takes should be about how the the left deserved to lose not how the right won.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #1635 on: September 25, 2022, 09:39:14 PM »

The right pulled ahead in the Messina seat where the De Luca independent was ahead for a while. They also look poised to eventually overtake M5S in the Foggia one. That could actually put them at 61 FPP seats. Given how they're doing percentage-wise, that actually pretty much guarantees 120 seats right there.

Well, they have pulled ahead in the Foggia seat, but the random indy is back in the lead in Messina. Who the hell knows what ends up happening there.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #1636 on: September 25, 2022, 10:50:30 PM »

For the House, it looks like the right is also ahead in 120 FPP seats. They're gonna get at least 116 PR seats, and maybe as many as 118. So the upper bound is probably 240 there as well.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1637 on: September 26, 2022, 03:26:33 AM »

The Right won the Livorno constituency, I note. Which roughly translates as 'Con gain Rhondda', even if, sure, this is a little harder than 'Con' - but then the traditions there were a little harder than 'Lab' as well, so.
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Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #1638 on: September 26, 2022, 04:46:18 AM »

I feel so sorry for Italy. A Broad Front including PD+M5S+Azione could have prevented this... I hope Berlusconi and FI helps moderate things a bit. I never thought I would say this.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1639 on: September 26, 2022, 05:08:44 AM »

Worth remembering that the old National Alliance (the successor to the MSI and the forerunner to the FdI) polled double digits at every General Election during its existence and peaked at 16% in 1996. This is obviously beyond that, but I don't think the idea that the political Right in the future might be dominated by a party from the old fascist tradition would have struck anyone back then as outlandish. This is very much a re-emergence (and how) not a new phenomenon.
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Helsinkian
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« Reply #1640 on: September 26, 2022, 05:14:43 AM »

Out of curiosity, did anyone at the time associate The People of Freedom with fascism because of the inclusion of the National Alliance in it?
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Mike88
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« Reply #1641 on: September 26, 2022, 05:37:10 AM »

Letta is leaving the PD leadership.


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"Unsatisfactory result. In the next few days we will bring together the party organs to speed up the path that will lead to a congress. I will not re-run as a candidate. This legislature will be the most right-wing"
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Mike88
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« Reply #1642 on: September 26, 2022, 05:43:46 AM »

Emma Bonino has lost her seat in Rome. Di Maio also has lost his seat.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1643 on: September 26, 2022, 05:51:35 AM »

FPTP results map:

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jaichind
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« Reply #1644 on: September 26, 2022, 06:05:59 AM »

It seems M5S will beat out Center-Left bloc in terms of FPTP seats which is reflective of the more concentrated nature of the MS5 vote. 
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Mike88
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« Reply #1645 on: September 26, 2022, 06:17:51 AM »

It seems M5S will beat out Center-Left bloc in terms of FPTP seats which is reflective of the more concentrated nature of the MS5 vote. 
In the House or Senate?
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #1646 on: September 26, 2022, 06:27:16 AM »

The Right won the Livorno constituency, I note. Which roughly translates as 'Con gain Rhondda', even if, sure, this is a little harder than 'Con' - but then the traditions there were a little harder than 'Lab' as well, so.

Well, this is like "Con gain Rhondda" if the Rhondda constituency included a big chunk of Carmarthenshire and Brecon and Radnor because someone decided that shrinking the Commons to a couple hundred MPs was just what the country needs...
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jaichind
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« Reply #1647 on: September 26, 2022, 06:35:44 AM »

It seems M5S will beat out Center-Left bloc in terms of FPTP seats which is reflective of the more concentrated nature of the MS5 vote. 
In the House or Senate?

It seems almost certain in the Senate and most likely House too
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #1648 on: September 26, 2022, 07:17:13 AM »

Letta is leaving the PD leadership.


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"Unsatisfactory result. In the next few days we will bring together the party organs to speed up the path that will lead to a congress. I will not re-run as a candidate. This legislature will be the most right-wing"

Good f**king riddance. Not that I have much hope that his successor will be an improvement...
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #1649 on: September 26, 2022, 07:18:50 AM »

It seems M5S will beat out Center-Left bloc in terms of FPTP seats which is reflective of the more concentrated nature of the MS5 vote. 
In the House or Senate?

It seems almost certain in the Senate and most likely House too

No, this is false. The FPTP count in the Chamber of Deputies is 12 for the Centre-Left and 10 for the M5S, and even that in the Senate is 6 for the Centre-Left and 5 for the M5S thanks to Trentino-Südtirol electing all Senators from the majoritarian part for some weird reason.
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